Mjallby AIF 4-0 Kalmar FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Mjallby AIF take on Kalmar FF.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kalmar FF make the trip to Strandvallen to face Mjallby AIF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Sunday 17 October 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Mjallby AIF have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D D D W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjallby AIF's home record at Strandvallen: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Strandvallen. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Kalmar FF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Kalmar FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Kalmar FF have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Kalmar FF are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Mjallby AIF lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Aug 2021, ended 0–1 with Kalmar FF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Mjallby AIF — key trading statistics (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Kalmar FF — key trading statistics (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 48% versus Kalmar FF 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 44% | Kalmar FF 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 0.88 xG and Kalmar FF 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 0.813 / defence 0.727 | Kalmar FF attack 1.080 / defence 0.748. League average goals — home 1.449 / away 1.065. Kalmar FF's defence strength of 0.748 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Mjallby AIF's defence rating of 0.727 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 52 Mjallby AIF games / 52 Kalmar FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 32% | Draw 38% | Kalmar FF 30%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 3.12 | Draw 2.63 | Kalmar FF 3.33. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.72. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.72 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Kalmar FF's lower xG of 0.84 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.72 combined xG gives a 25% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates corroborate: Mjallby AIF 10% | Kalmar FF 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs Kalmar FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Oct 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 32% | Draw 38% | Kalmar FF 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 35% | xG Mjallby AIF 0.88 / Kalmar FF 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 0.813 / def 0.727 | Kalmar FF attack 1.080 / def 0.748 | league avg home 1.449 / away 1.065 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Kalmar FF xG
35%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs Kalmar FF kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs Kalmar FF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 17 October 2021 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs Kalmar FF?
Mjallby AIF 4 - 0 Kalmar FF.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs Kalmar FF being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs Kalmar FF part of?
Mjallby AIF vs Kalmar FF is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs Kalmar FF?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 32% chance of winning, Kalmar FF a 30% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs Kalmar FF?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Mjallby AIF and Kalmar FF will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs Kalmar FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Kalmar FF?
Record (2 meetings): Mjallby AIF 1W | Draws 0 | Kalmar FF 1W.
What form are Mjallby AIF and Kalmar FF in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-D-D-W-W. Kalmar FF (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Mjallby AIF's attack at 0.81x the league average against Kalmar FF's defence at 0.75x — combine the two and it projects 0.88 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Kalmar FF's attack (1.08x) against Mjallby AIF's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.08
38%
2.66
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
1.72
0.84
Kalmar FF xG
3.08
32%
Home win
2.66
38%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.85
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
41%
2.41
Win to Nil
14%
7.10
12%
8.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.0 | 15.0 | 6.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.8 | 13.2 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs Kalmar FF?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.7%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and Kalmar FF expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 0.84 for Kalmar FF, a combined total of 1.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs Kalmar FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mjallby AIF's recent record stands at 18W 17D 17L from 52 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with D-D-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kalmar FF, meanwhile, have gone 17W 17D 18L across 52 games — 1.31 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Kalmar FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.37 PPG for Mjallby AIF against 1.31 for Kalmar FF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Mjallby AIF have managed 11W 8D 6L from 25 games — 1.64 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kalmar FF's away record stands at 11W 7D 7L across 25 trips, a 1.60 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Kalmar FF are on 1.08 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Blended
Kalmar FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and Kalmar FF in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 18W 17D 17L in their last 52 games (1.37 PPG), while Kalmar FF have gone 17W 17D 18L in their last 52 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or Kalmar FF away?
Mjallby AIF's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 1.64 PPG; Kalmar FF away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Mjallby AIF or Kalmar FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Kalmar FF in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mjallby AIF won 4-0 on 17 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mjallby AIF have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Kalmar FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Mjallby AIF
2
Draws
2
Kalmar FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Kalmar FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 6, Kalmar FF have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and Kalmar FF last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Kalmar FF 2-1 Mjallby AIF.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and Kalmar FF?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 44%, Kalmar FF 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Mjallby AIF) and 44% (Kalmar FF).
On the defensive side: Mjallby AIF keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Kalmar FF in 32%; Mjallby AIF have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / Kalmar FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play Kalmar FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Mjallby AIF's recent matches and 52% of Kalmar FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mjallby AIF vs Kalmar FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Mjallby AIF's recent games and 44% of Kalmar FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjallby AIF and Kalmar FF tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Kalmar FF in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Mjallby AIF run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Kalmar FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat Kalmar FF 4-0 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 23, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 0.88 xG and Kalmar FF 0.84 xG, a combined 1.72. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Mjallby AIF beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kalmar FF landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 0.81 / defence 0.73 against Kalmar FF attack 1.08 / defence 0.75, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 32% | Draw 38% | Kalmar FF 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Mjallby AIF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. Over 3.5 was 10% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 44%, Kalmar FF 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Kalmar FF's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjallby AIF 1.37 PPG, Kalmar FF 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mjallby AIF win broke the near-deadlock. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.