Mjallby AIF 1-4 IFK Goteborg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates IFK Goteborg at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mjallby AIF vs IFK Goteborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Strandvallen plays host to Mjallby AIF versus IFK Goteborg in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Monday 5 September 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Mjallby AIF have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W D L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Strandvallen, Mjallby AIF have gone 4W 5D 1L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
IFK Goteborg's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for IFK Goteborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IFK Goteborg's form when playing away from home: 5W 0D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Mjallby AIF against 1.90 for IFK Goteborg. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Mjallby AIF lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Jul 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Mjallby AIF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 34% of games.
IFK Goteborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 36% versus IFK Goteborg 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Mjallby AIF 28% | IFK Goteborg 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.10 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 0.903 / defence 0.940 | IFK Goteborg attack 1.105 / defence 0.821. League average goals — home 1.487 / away 1.155. Data: 50 Mjallby AIF games / 50 IFK Goteborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 33% | Draw 28% | IFK Goteborg 38%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | IFK Goteborg 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates IFK Goteborg as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IFK Goteborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Mjallby AIF 80% | IFK Goteborg 20%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs IFK Goteborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Monday 5 Sep 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 33% | Draw 28% | IFK Goteborg 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Mjallby AIF 1.10 / IFK Goteborg 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 0.903 / def 0.940 | IFK Goteborg attack 1.105 / def 0.821 | league avg home 1.487 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: IFK Goteborg (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
1.20
IFK Goteborg xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs IFK Goteborg kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs IFK Goteborg kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 5 September 2022 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs IFK Goteborg?
Mjallby AIF 1 - 4 IFK Goteborg.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs IFK Goteborg being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs IFK Goteborg part of?
Mjallby AIF vs IFK Goteborg is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs IFK Goteborg?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 33% chance of winning, IFK Goteborg a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making IFK Goteborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs IFK Goteborg?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Mjallby AIF and IFK Goteborg will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs IFK Goteborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and IFK Goteborg?
Record (2 meetings): Mjallby AIF 0W | Draws 1 | IFK Goteborg 1W.
What form are Mjallby AIF and IFK Goteborg in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-L-D-W. IFK Goteborg (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Mjallby AIF's attack at 0.90x the league average against IFK Goteborg's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — IFK Goteborg's attack (1.10x) against Mjallby AIF's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Goteborg Win
33%
2.99
28%
3.53
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.30
1.20
IFK Goteborg xG
2.99
33%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
10%
9.95
13%
7.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 12.0 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.2 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs IFK Goteborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and IFK Goteborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 1.20 for IFK Goteborg, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs IFK Goteborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 50 outings, Mjallby AIF have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 17W 18D 15L record — W-D-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IFK Goteborg's form line: 21W 11D 18L from 50 games, 1.48 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-W. The sample for IFK Goteborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Mjallby AIF against 1.48 for IFK Goteborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Mjallby AIF have posted 1.48 PPG from 25 outings (9W 10D 6L).
On the road, IFK Goteborg have gone 10W 5D 10L from 25 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; IFK Goteborg are on 1.36 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; IFK Goteborg in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Blended
IFK Goteborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and IFK Goteborg in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 17W 18D 15L in their last 50 games (1.38 PPG), while IFK Goteborg have gone 21W 11D 18L in their last 50 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or IFK Goteborg away?
Mjallby AIF's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 1.48 PPG; IFK Goteborg away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Mjallby AIF or IFK Goteborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, IFK Goteborg in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 25 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IFK Goteborg won 1-4 on 5 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mjallby AIF have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against IFK Goteborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Mjallby AIF
2
Draws
4
IFK Goteborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and IFK Goteborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 4, IFK Goteborg have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and IFK Goteborg last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2026, when IFK Goteborg 1-1 Mjallby AIF.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mjallby AIF see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 44%, IFK Goteborg 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Mjallby AIF) and 48% (IFK Goteborg).
On the defensive side: Mjallby AIF keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; IFK Goteborg in 32%; Mjallby AIF have failed to score in 28% of games; IFK Goteborg in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / IFK Goteborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play IFK Goteborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Mjallby AIF's recent matches and 40% of IFK Goteborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mjallby AIF vs IFK Goteborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Mjallby AIF's recent games and 48% of IFK Goteborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjallby AIF and IFK Goteborg tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, IFK Goteborg in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant IFK Goteborg run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Mjallby AIF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Goteborg beat Mjallby AIF 1-4 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 21, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.10 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.20 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. IFK Goteborg outscored their 1.20 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 0.90 / defence 0.94 against IFK Goteborg attack 1.10 / defence 0.82, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 33% | Draw 28% | IFK Goteborg 38%, with IFK Goteborg to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 28%, IFK Goteborg 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjallby AIF 1.38 PPG, IFK Goteborg 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Goteborg win broke the near-deadlock. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.