Mjallby AIF 1-3 IFK Goteborg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Mjallby AIF at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mjallby AIF vs IFK Goteborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Strandvallen plays host to Mjallby AIF versus IFK Goteborg in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Sunday 24 October 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Mjallby AIF have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: D D W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Strandvallen, Mjallby AIF have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Strandvallen. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
IFK Goteborg's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for IFK Goteborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IFK Goteborg's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Mjallby AIF. A 0.70 PPG lead over IFK Goteborg (1.70 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading Data
Mjallby AIF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
IFK Goteborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 47% versus IFK Goteborg 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 45% | IFK Goteborg 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.75 xG and IFK Goteborg 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 1.019 / defence 0.651 | IFK Goteborg attack 0.966 / defence 1.132. League average goals — home 1.513 / away 1.070. Mjallby AIF's defence rating of 0.651 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 53 Mjallby AIF games / 53 IFK Goteborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 62% | Draw 25% | IFK Goteborg 13%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 1.61 | Draw 4.00 | IFK Goteborg 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Mjallby AIF (62%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Mjallby AIF as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Mjallby AIF 10% | IFK Goteborg 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs IFK Goteborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Oct 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 62% | Draw 25% | IFK Goteborg 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 41% | xG Mjallby AIF 1.75 / IFK Goteborg 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 1.019 / def 0.651 | IFK Goteborg attack 0.966 / def 1.132 | league avg home 1.513 / away 1.070 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
0.67
IFK Goteborg xG
41%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs IFK Goteborg kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs IFK Goteborg kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 24 October 2021 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs IFK Goteborg?
Mjallby AIF 1 - 3 IFK Goteborg.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs IFK Goteborg being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs IFK Goteborg part of?
Mjallby AIF vs IFK Goteborg is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs IFK Goteborg?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 62% chance of winning, IFK Goteborg a 13% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs IFK Goteborg?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Mjallby AIF and IFK Goteborg will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs IFK Goteborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and IFK Goteborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mjallby AIF and IFK Goteborg in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.30 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. IFK Goteborg (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Mjallby AIF's attack at 1.02x the league average against IFK Goteborg's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.75 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — IFK Goteborg's attack (0.97x) against Mjallby AIF's defence (0.65x) — and the away total comes out at 0.67.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (13.6%), 1-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
62%
1.61
25%
4.02
13%
7.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.42
0.67
IFK Goteborg xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
7.73
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.41
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
51%
1.96
17%
5.73
Win to Nil
32%
3.15
2%
44.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.5 | 10.5 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.6 | 9.1 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.9 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs IFK Goteborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and IFK Goteborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 0.67 for IFK Goteborg, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs IFK Goteborg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 53 outings, Mjallby AIF have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 19W 17D 17L record — D-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IFK Goteborg's form line: 13W 20D 20L from 53 games, 1.11 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W. The sample for IFK Goteborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Mjallby AIF against 1.11 for IFK Goteborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Mjallby AIF have posted 1.69 PPG from 26 outings (12W 8D 6L).
On the road, IFK Goteborg have gone 6W 12D 8L from 26 away games — 1.15 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mjallby AIF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; IFK Goteborg are on 1.15 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Blended
IFK Goteborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and IFK Goteborg in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 19W 17D 17L in their last 53 games (1.40 PPG), while IFK Goteborg have gone 13W 20D 20L in their last 53 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or IFK Goteborg away?
Mjallby AIF's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 1.69 PPG; IFK Goteborg away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Mjallby AIF or IFK Goteborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, IFK Goteborg in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 25 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IFK Goteborg won 1-4 on 5 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mjallby AIF have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against IFK Goteborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Mjallby AIF
2
Draws
4
IFK Goteborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and IFK Goteborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 4, IFK Goteborg have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and IFK Goteborg last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2026, when IFK Goteborg 1-1 Mjallby AIF.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 42%, IFK Goteborg 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Mjallby AIF) and 46% (IFK Goteborg).
On the defensive side: Mjallby AIF keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; IFK Goteborg in 31%; Mjallby AIF have failed to score in 31% of games; IFK Goteborg in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / IFK Goteborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play IFK Goteborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Mjallby AIF's recent matches and 54% of IFK Goteborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mjallby AIF vs IFK Goteborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Mjallby AIF's recent games and 46% of IFK Goteborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjallby AIF and IFK Goteborg tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, IFK Goteborg in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IFK Goteborg cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Mjallby AIF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Goteborg beat Mjallby AIF 1-3 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 24, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.75 xG and IFK Goteborg 0.67 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. IFK Goteborg outscored their 0.67 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 1.02 / defence 0.65 against IFK Goteborg attack 0.97 / defence 1.13, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 62% | Draw 25% | IFK Goteborg 13%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a IFK Goteborg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 45%, IFK Goteborg 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjallby AIF 1.40 PPG, IFK Goteborg 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Goteborg win broke the near-deadlock. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.