Mjallby AIF 1-1 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mjallby AIF at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Strandvallen plays host to Mjallby AIF versus IF Elfsborg in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Sunday 7 August 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
Mjallby AIF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L D W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjallby AIF's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Strandvallen this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
IF Elfsborg have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D D L L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Elfsborg's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Mjallby AIF, 0 for IF Elfsborg and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 4 Apr 2022, ended 2–0 with Mjallby AIF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Mjallby AIF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 35% of games.
IF Elfsborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 35% versus IF Elfsborg 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 30% | IF Elfsborg 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.39 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 0.941 / defence 0.950 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.986 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.468 / away 1.117. Data: 46 Mjallby AIF games / 46 IF Elfsborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 45% | Draw 27% | IF Elfsborg 28%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | IF Elfsborg 3.57. Mjallby AIF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mjallby AIF at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mjallby AIF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Mjallby AIF 70% | IF Elfsborg 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Aug 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 45% | Draw 27% | IF Elfsborg 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Mjallby AIF 1.39 / IF Elfsborg 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 0.941 / def 0.950 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.986 / def 1.007 | league avg home 1.468 / away 1.117 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
1.05
IF Elfsborg xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 7 August 2022 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg?
Mjallby AIF 1 - 1 IF Elfsborg.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg part of?
Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 45% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Mjallby AIF and IF Elfsborg will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and IF Elfsborg?
Record (2 meetings): Mjallby AIF 2W | Draws 0 | IF Elfsborg 0W.
What form are Mjallby AIF and IF Elfsborg in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. IF Elfsborg (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Mjallby AIF's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against IF Elfsborg's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. Flip it around — IF Elfsborg's attack (0.99x) against Mjallby AIF's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
45%
2.23
27%
3.71
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.44
1.05
IF Elfsborg xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
16%
6.36
7%
14.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.7 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 1.05 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 46 outings, Mjallby AIF have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 16W 16D 14L record — W-L-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IF Elfsborg's form line: 22W 10D 14L from 46 games, 1.65 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-D. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Mjallby AIF against 1.65 for IF Elfsborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Mjallby AIF have posted 1.52 PPG from 23 outings (9W 8D 6L).
On the road, IF Elfsborg have gone 10W 4D 9L from 23 away games — 1.48 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 1.76 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Defensively: Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Blended
IF Elfsborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 16W 16D 14L in their last 46 games (1.39 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 22W 10D 14L in their last 46 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or IF Elfsborg away?
Mjallby AIF's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 1.52 PPG; IF Elfsborg away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Mjallby AIF or IF Elfsborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, IF Elfsborg in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 21 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mjallby AIF won 4-0 on 26 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mjallby AIF have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against IF Elfsborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Mjallby AIF
4
Draws
3
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and IF Elfsborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 3, IF Elfsborg have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2026, when IF Elfsborg 1-1 Mjallby AIF.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mjallby AIF see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 39%, IF Elfsborg 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Mjallby AIF) and 52% (IF Elfsborg).
On the defensive side: Mjallby AIF keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; IF Elfsborg in 30%; Mjallby AIF have failed to score in 30% of games; IF Elfsborg in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play IF Elfsborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Mjallby AIF's recent matches and 44% of IF Elfsborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Mjallby AIF's recent games and 52% of IF Elfsborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjallby AIF and IF Elfsborg tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, IF Elfsborg in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mjallby AIF and IF Elfsborg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 17, as Mjallby AIF and IF Elfsborg drew 1-1 in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.39 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.05 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 0.94 / defence 0.95 against IF Elfsborg attack 0.99 / defence 1.01, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 45% | Draw 27% | IF Elfsborg 28%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 30%, IF Elfsborg 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjallby AIF 1.39 PPG, IF Elfsborg 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.