Mjallby AIF 0-1 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Mjallby AIF at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Strandvallen plays host to Mjallby AIF versus IF Elfsborg in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Saturday 29 April 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Mjallby AIF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Mjallby AIF's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Strandvallen this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
IF Elfsborg have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
IF Elfsborg's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
IF Elfsborg arrive in superior form — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Mjallby AIF, 0 for IF Elfsborg and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Aug 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Mjallby AIF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
IF Elfsborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 42% versus IF Elfsborg 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 35% | IF Elfsborg 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.21 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 1.051 / defence 1.050 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.046 / defence 0.766. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.009. IF Elfsborg's defence strength of 0.766 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 34 Mjallby AIF games / 34 IF Elfsborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 39% | Draw 28% | IF Elfsborg 33%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | IF Elfsborg 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Mjallby AIF dominate the H2H record, yet IF Elfsborg are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mjallby AIF at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form IF Elfsborg (2.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mjallby AIF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: Mjallby AIF 90% | IF Elfsborg 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Apr 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 39% | Draw 28% | IF Elfsborg 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Mjallby AIF 1.21 / IF Elfsborg 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 1.051 / def 1.050 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.046 / def 0.766 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.009 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
1.11
IF Elfsborg xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 29 April 2023 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg?
Mjallby AIF 0 - 1 IF Elfsborg.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg part of?
Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 39% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Mjallby AIF and IF Elfsborg will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and IF Elfsborg?
Record (3 meetings): Mjallby AIF 2W | Draws 1 | IF Elfsborg 0W.
What form are Mjallby AIF and IF Elfsborg in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. IF Elfsborg (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Mjallby AIF's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against IF Elfsborg's defensive record (0.77x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. Flip it around — IF Elfsborg's attack (1.05x) against Mjallby AIF's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
39%
2.60
28%
3.55
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.32
1.11
IF Elfsborg xG
2.60
39%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
13%
7.86
10%
10.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 10.9 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.2 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 1.11 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 60 outings, Mjallby AIF have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 20W 21D 19L record — L-W-W-L-W across the most recent five.
IF Elfsborg's form line: 30W 14D 16L from 60 games, 1.73 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Mjallby AIF against 1.73 for IF Elfsborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Mjallby AIF have posted 1.37 PPG from 30 outings (10W 11D 9L).
On the road, IF Elfsborg have gone 14W 6D 10L from 30 away games — 1.60 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 1.77 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Current Season
IF Elfsborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 20W 21D 19L in their last 60 games (1.35 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 30W 14D 16L in their last 60 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or IF Elfsborg away?
IF Elfsborg's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 1.37 PPG; IF Elfsborg away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Mjallby AIF or IF Elfsborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, IF Elfsborg in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 21 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mjallby AIF won 4-0 on 26 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mjallby AIF have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against IF Elfsborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Mjallby AIF
4
Draws
3
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and IF Elfsborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 3, IF Elfsborg have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2026, when IF Elfsborg 1-1 Mjallby AIF.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mjallby AIF see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 50%, IF Elfsborg 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Mjallby AIF) and 50% (IF Elfsborg).
On the defensive side: Mjallby AIF keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; IF Elfsborg in 33%; Mjallby AIF have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play IF Elfsborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Mjallby AIF's recent matches and 47% of IF Elfsborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Mjallby AIF's recent games and 50% of IF Elfsborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjallby AIF and IF Elfsborg tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, IF Elfsborg in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as IF Elfsborg defy the odds to beat Mjallby AIF 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg beat Mjallby AIF 0-1 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 5, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.21 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.11 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Mjallby AIF fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 1.05 / defence 1.05 against IF Elfsborg attack 1.05 / defence 0.77, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 39% | Draw 28% | IF Elfsborg 33%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual IF Elfsborg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 35%, IF Elfsborg 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjallby AIF 1.35 PPG, IF Elfsborg 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IF Elfsborg win broke the near-deadlock. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.