Mjallby AIF 3-1 Halmstad – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mjallby AIF at 73% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mjallby AIF vs Halmstad encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Halmstad make the trip to Strandvallen to face Mjallby AIF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Saturday 31 August 2024 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Mjallby AIF have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjallby AIF's home record at Strandvallen: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Mjallby AIF are significantly better at Strandvallen than their overall form suggests.
Halmstad's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 2W 0D 8L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Halmstad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Halmstad away from home this season: 2W 0D 8L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Mjallby AIF. A 1.00 PPG lead over Halmstad (1.60 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Mjallby AIF, 1 for Halmstad and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2024, ended 3–1 with Mjallby AIF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Mjallby AIF — key trading statistics (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Halmstad — key trading statistics (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 48% versus Halmstad 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 52% | Halmstad 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 2.60 xG and Halmstad 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 1.120 / defence 0.906 | Halmstad attack 0.775 / defence 1.503. League average goals — home 1.540 / away 1.350. Halmstad bring a strong defensive rating of 1.503 — this is suppressing Mjallby AIF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 Mjallby AIF games / 50 Halmstad games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 73% | Draw 16% | Halmstad 11%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 1.37 | Draw 6.25 | Halmstad 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Mjallby AIF (73%) — a 62pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.54. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.54 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mjallby AIF are the pick at 73% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.54 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Mjallby AIF 80% | Halmstad 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs Halmstad | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Aug 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 73% | Draw 16% | Halmstad 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 57% | xG Mjallby AIF 2.60 / Halmstad 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 1.120 / def 0.906 | Halmstad attack 0.775 / def 1.503 | league avg home 1.540 / away 1.350 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.60
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Halmstad xG
57%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs Halmstad kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs Halmstad kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 31 August 2024 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs Halmstad?
Mjallby AIF 3 - 1 Halmstad.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs Halmstad being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs Halmstad part of?
Mjallby AIF vs Halmstad is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs Halmstad?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 73% chance of winning, Halmstad a 11% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs Halmstad?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Mjallby AIF and Halmstad will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs Halmstad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Halmstad?
Record (5 meetings): Mjallby AIF 1W | Draws 3 | Halmstad 1W.
What form are Mjallby AIF and Halmstad in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Halmstad (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Mjallby AIF's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Halmstad's defensive record (1.50x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.60. Flip it around — Halmstad's attack (0.78x) against Mjallby AIF's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 9.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 3-0 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
73%
1.38
16%
6.34
11%
8.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
3 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.60
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
3.54
0.95
Halmstad xG
1.38
73%
Home win
6.34
16%
Draw
8.70
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
7%
13.40
Win to Nil
28%
3.55
1%
116.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.5 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.4 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs Halmstad?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and Halmstad expected to score?
The model projects 2.60 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 0.95 for Halmstad, a combined total of 3.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs Halmstad?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 50 outings, Mjallby AIF have picked up 1.48 PPG on a 22W 8D 20L record — L-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Halmstad's form line: 16W 9D 25L from 50 games, 1.14 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-L. The sample for Halmstad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.48 PPG for Mjallby AIF against 1.14 for Halmstad. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Mjallby AIF have posted 1.44 PPG from 25 outings (10W 6D 9L).
On the road, Halmstad have gone 6W 4D 15L from 25 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mjallby AIF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Halmstad are on 1.04 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Blended
Halmstad
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and Halmstad in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 22W 8D 20L in their last 50 games (1.48 PPG), while Halmstad have gone 16W 9D 25L in their last 50 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or Halmstad away?
Mjallby AIF's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 1.44 PPG; Halmstad away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Mjallby AIF have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mjallby AIF have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Halmstad — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Mjallby AIF
3
Draws
1
Halmstad
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Halmstad?
From 9 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 5, Halmstad have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and Halmstad last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when Mjallby AIF 2-0 Halmstad.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and Halmstad?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Halmstad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 56%, Halmstad 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Mjallby AIF) and 60% (Halmstad). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Halmstad in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / Halmstad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play Halmstad?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Mjallby AIF's games and 56% of Halmstad's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mjallby AIF vs Halmstad usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Mjallby AIF's matches and 60% of Halmstad's.
Do Mjallby AIF and Halmstad tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Halmstad in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mjallby AIF cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Halmstad.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat Halmstad 3-1 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 21, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 2.60 xG and Halmstad 0.95 xG, a combined 3.54. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 1.12 / defence 0.91 against Halmstad attack 0.78 / defence 1.50, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 73% | Draw 16% | Halmstad 11%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 73%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 52%, Halmstad 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Halmstad's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjallby AIF 1.48 PPG, Halmstad 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mjallby AIF win broke the near-deadlock. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm. Halmstad (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.