Kalmar FF 1-1 Sirius – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kalmar FF at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kalmar FF vs Sirius fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Guldfågeln Arena plays host to Kalmar FF versus Sirius in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Sunday 10 July 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Kalmar FF have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Kalmar FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kalmar FF at Guldfågeln Arena this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Guldfågeln Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Sirius (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sirius have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Kalmar FF, 1.30 for Sirius — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Kalmar FF 1W, Sirius 0W, 2D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2021, ended 3–1 with Kalmar FF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Kalmar FF — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Sirius — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kalmar FF 50% versus Sirius 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kalmar FF 43% | Sirius 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kalmar FF 1.45 xG and Sirius 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kalmar FF attack 0.888 / defence 0.775 | Sirius attack 1.120 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.076. Kalmar FF's defence rating of 0.775 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 Kalmar FF games / 42 Sirius games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kalmar FF 49% | Draw 27% | Sirius 24%. Fair-value odds: Kalmar FF 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Sirius 4.17. Kalmar FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Kalmar FF as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kalmar FF if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kalmar FF 30% | Sirius 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kalmar FF vs Sirius | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Guldfågeln Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Jul 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kalmar FF 49% | Draw 27% | Sirius 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 46% | xG Kalmar FF 1.45 / Sirius 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Kalmar FF attack 0.888 / def 0.775 | Sirius attack 1.120 / def 1.104 | league avg home 1.481 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: Kalmar FF (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Kalmar FF xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Sirius xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kalmar FF vs Sirius kick off?
Kalmar FF vs Sirius kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 10 July 2022 at Guldfågeln Arena.
What was the final score in Kalmar FF vs Sirius?
Kalmar FF 1 - 1 Sirius.
Where is Kalmar FF vs Sirius being played?
The match is being played at Guldfågeln Arena.
What competition is Kalmar FF vs Sirius part of?
Kalmar FF vs Sirius is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Kalmar FF vs Sirius?
Our statistical model gives Kalmar FF a 49% chance of winning, Sirius a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Kalmar FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kalmar FF vs Sirius?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Kalmar FF and Sirius will score (BTTS).
Will Kalmar FF vs Sirius have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and Sirius?
Record (3 meetings): Kalmar FF 1W | Draws 2 | Sirius 0W.
What form are Kalmar FF and Sirius in?
Kalmar FF (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. Sirius (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Kalmar FF's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Sirius's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. Flip it around — Sirius's attack (1.12x) against Kalmar FF's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kalmar FF Win
49%
2.04
27%
3.76
24%
4.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Kalmar FF xG
Total xG
2.38
0.93
Sirius xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
4.12
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
23%
4.27
Win to Nil
19%
5.17
6%
17.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.5 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.1 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kalmar FF vs Sirius?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Kalmar FF and Sirius expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Kalmar FF and 0.93 for Sirius, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Kalmar FF vs Sirius?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Kalmar FF's recent record stands at 19W 10D 13L from 42 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Kalmar FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sirius, meanwhile, have gone 15W 9D 18L across 42 games — 1.29 PPG, with W-D-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.60 PPG for Kalmar FF against 1.29 for Sirius. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Kalmar FF have managed 10W 5D 6L from 21 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sirius's away record stands at 5W 6D 10L across 21 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kalmar FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Kalmar FF are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Sirius are on 1.26 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kalmar FF
Blended
Sirius
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kalmar FF and Sirius in coming into this match?
Kalmar FF have gone 19W 10D 13L in their last 42 games (1.60 PPG), while Sirius have gone 15W 9D 18L in their last 42 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kalmar FF at home or Sirius away?
Kalmar FF's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kalmar FF at home: 1.67 PPG; Sirius away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Kalmar FF or Sirius been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kalmar FF have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Sirius in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Sirius go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sirius won 3-0 on 13 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kalmar FF have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sirius — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Kalmar FF
5
Draws
4
Sirius
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and Sirius?
From 10 meetings on record, Kalmar FF have won 1, Sirius have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Kalmar FF and Sirius last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Sirius 3-2 Kalmar FF.
Who has won more matches between Kalmar FF and Sirius?
Sirius have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kalmar FF see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kalmar FF 38%, Sirius 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Kalmar FF) and 71% (Sirius).
On the defensive side: Kalmar FF keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Kalmar FF have failed to score in 29% of games; Sirius in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kalmar FF home games / Sirius away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kalmar FF play Sirius?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Kalmar FF's recent matches and 57% of Sirius's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kalmar FF vs Sirius usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Kalmar FF's recent games and 71% of Sirius's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kalmar FF and Sirius tend to score early?
Kalmar FF have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Sirius in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kalmar FF and Sirius share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kalmar FF and Sirius finished level at 1-1 at Guldfågeln Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kalmar FF 1.45 xG and Sirius 0.93 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kalmar FF attack 0.89 / defence 0.78 against Sirius attack 1.12 / defence 1.10, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kalmar FF 49% | Draw 27% | Sirius 24%, with Kalmar FF to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kalmar FF 43%, Sirius 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kalmar FF's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Sirius's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kalmar FF 1.60 PPG, Sirius 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sirius (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.