Kalmar FF 0-3 Orebro SK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kalmar FF at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kalmar FF vs Orebro SK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Orebro SK travel to Guldfågeln Arena to take on Kalmar FF. The game is scheduled for Thursday 6 August 2020, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kalmar FF stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kalmar FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Kalmar FF have posted 1W 2D 3L at Guldfågeln Arena — 0.83 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Orebro SK have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Orebro SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orebro SK's away record: 1W 2D 3L from 6 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (0.83 PPG). Away from home they average 0.83 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Kalmar FF 0.60 PPG, Orebro SK 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Kalmar FF register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Orebro SK in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Kalmar FF in-play tendencies (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Orebro SK in-play tendencies (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kalmar FF 58% versus Orebro SK 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kalmar FF 67% | Orebro SK 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kalmar FF 1.30 xG and Orebro SK 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kalmar FF attack 0.884 / defence 1.153 | Orebro SK attack 0.685 / defence 1.309. League average goals — home 1.126 / away 1.255. Orebro SK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.309 — this is suppressing Kalmar FF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Kalmar FF games / 12 Orebro SK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kalmar FF 42% | Draw 31% | Orebro SK 27%. Fair-value odds: Kalmar FF 2.38 | Draw 3.23 | Orebro SK 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kalmar FF are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kalmar FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. This conflicts with form data: Kalmar FF 67% | Orebro SK 67% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kalmar FF vs Orebro SK | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Guldfågeln Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 6 Aug 2020, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kalmar FF 42% | Draw 31% | Orebro SK 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Kalmar FF 1.30 / Orebro SK 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Kalmar FF attack 0.884 / def 1.153 | Orebro SK attack 0.685 / def 1.309 | league avg home 1.126 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: Kalmar FF (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Kalmar FF xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Orebro SK xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kalmar FF vs Orebro SK kick off?
Kalmar FF vs Orebro SK kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 6 August 2020 at Guldfågeln Arena.
What was the final score in Kalmar FF vs Orebro SK?
Kalmar FF 0 - 3 Orebro SK.
Where is Kalmar FF vs Orebro SK being played?
The match is being played at Guldfågeln Arena.
What competition is Kalmar FF vs Orebro SK part of?
Kalmar FF vs Orebro SK is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Kalmar FF vs Orebro SK?
Our statistical model gives Kalmar FF a 42% chance of winning, Orebro SK a 27% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Kalmar FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kalmar FF vs Orebro SK?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Kalmar FF and Orebro SK will score (BTTS).
Will Kalmar FF vs Orebro SK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and Orebro SK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kalmar FF and Orebro SK in?
Kalmar FF (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-D-D. Orebro SK (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Kalmar FF's attack rating (0.88) and Orebro SK's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Orebro SK's attack versus Kalmar FF's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kalmar FF Win
42%
2.38
31%
3.18
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Kalmar FF xG
Total xG
2.29
0.99
Orebro SK xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
16%
6.42
7%
13.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.0 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kalmar FF vs Orebro SK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Kalmar FF and Orebro SK expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Kalmar FF and 0.99 for Orebro SK, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Kalmar FF vs Orebro SK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kalmar FF's recent record stands at 2W 3D 7L from 12 games, a 0.75 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for Kalmar FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Orebro SK, meanwhile, have gone 3W 4D 5L across 12 games — 1.08 PPG, with L-W-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Orebro SK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kalmar FF on 0.75 PPG, Orebro SK on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Kalmar FF have managed 1W 2D 3L from 6 games — 0.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Orebro SK's away record stands at 1W 2D 3L across 6 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Kalmar FF are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Orebro SK are on 0.83 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 12 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kalmar FF
Blended
Orebro SK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kalmar FF and Orebro SK in coming into this match?
Kalmar FF have gone 2W 3D 7L in their last 12 games (0.75 PPG), while Orebro SK have gone 3W 4D 5L in their last 12 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kalmar FF at home or Orebro SK away?
Kalmar FF's home record (0.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kalmar FF at home: 0.83 PPG; Orebro SK away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2020. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 30 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Aug 2020, when Orebro SK won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kalmar FF's record when hosting Orebro SK specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Kalmar FF
1
Draws
1
Orebro SK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and Orebro SK?
From 6 meetings on record, Kalmar FF have won 4, Orebro SK have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kalmar FF and Orebro SK last play each other?
They last met on 30 September 2025, when Kalmar FF 2-1 Orebro SK.
Who has won more matches between Kalmar FF and Orebro SK?
Kalmar FF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Kalmar FF at 67%, Orebro SK at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Kalmar FF) and 50% (Orebro SK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kalmar FF keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Orebro SK in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kalmar FF home games / Orebro SK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kalmar FF play Orebro SK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Kalmar FF's games and 67% of Orebro SK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kalmar FF vs Orebro SK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Kalmar FF's matches and 50% of Orebro SK's.
Do Kalmar FF and Orebro SK tend to score early?
Kalmar FF have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Orebro SK in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Orebro SK run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Kalmar FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orebro SK beat Kalmar FF 0-3 at Guldfågeln Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kalmar FF 1.30 xG and Orebro SK 0.99 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Kalmar FF fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Orebro SK outscored their 0.99 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kalmar FF attack 0.88 / defence 1.15 against Orebro SK attack 0.69 / defence 1.31, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kalmar FF 42% | Draw 31% | Orebro SK 27%, with Kalmar FF to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Orebro SK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kalmar FF 67%, Orebro SK 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kalmar FF's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Orebro SK's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kalmar FF 0.75 PPG, Orebro SK 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Orebro SK win broke the near-deadlock. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Orebro SK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.