Kalmar FF 1-4 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mjallby AIF at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kalmar FF vs Mjallby AIF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Guldfågeln Arena plays host to Kalmar FF versus Mjallby AIF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Monday 24 August 2020 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Kalmar FF (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kalmar FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Kalmar FF have posted 1W 3D 4L at Guldfågeln Arena — 0.75 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Mjallby AIF have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Mjallby AIF have posted 2W 2D 4L from 8 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.88 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.70 PPG for Kalmar FF against 1.00 for Mjallby AIF. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Kalmar FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Mjallby AIF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kalmar FF 50% versus Mjallby AIF 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kalmar FF 56% | Mjallby AIF 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kalmar FF 1.08 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kalmar FF attack 0.785 / defence 1.243 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.685 / defence 1.221. League average goals — home 1.126 / away 1.350. Kalmar FF's attack strength of 0.785 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Mjallby AIF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.221 — this is suppressing Kalmar FF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Kalmar FF games / 16 Mjallby AIF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kalmar FF 33% | Draw 31% | Mjallby AIF 36%. Fair-value odds: Kalmar FF 3.03 | Draw 3.23 | Mjallby AIF 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mjallby AIF are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mjallby AIF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.23 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Kalmar FF 62% | Mjallby AIF 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kalmar FF vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Guldfågeln Arena • Kick-off: Monday 24 Aug 2020, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kalmar FF 33% | Draw 31% | Mjallby AIF 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Kalmar FF 1.08 / Mjallby AIF 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Kalmar FF attack 0.785 / def 1.243 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.685 / def 1.221 | league avg home 1.126 / away 1.350 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Kalmar FF xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Mjallby AIF xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kalmar FF vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
Kalmar FF vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 24 August 2020 at Guldfågeln Arena.
What was the final score in Kalmar FF vs Mjallby AIF?
Kalmar FF 1 - 4 Mjallby AIF.
Where is Kalmar FF vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Guldfågeln Arena.
What competition is Kalmar FF vs Mjallby AIF part of?
Kalmar FF vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Kalmar FF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives Kalmar FF a 33% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 36% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kalmar FF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Kalmar FF and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will Kalmar FF vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and Mjallby AIF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kalmar FF and Mjallby AIF in?
Kalmar FF (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Mjallby AIF (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Kalmar FF's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Mjallby AIF's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. Flip it around — Mjallby AIF's attack (0.69x) against Kalmar FF's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
33%
3.07
31%
3.20
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Kalmar FF xG
Total xG
2.23
1.15
Mjallby AIF xG
3.07
33%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
10%
9.67
12%
8.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 12.4 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kalmar FF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Kalmar FF and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Kalmar FF and 1.15 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Kalmar FF vs Mjallby AIF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kalmar FF's recent record stands at 3W 4D 9L from 16 games, a 0.81 PPG return, with D-L-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Kalmar FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mjallby AIF, meanwhile, have gone 5W 5D 6L across 16 games — 1.25 PPG, with D-D-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Mjallby AIF by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kalmar FF heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Kalmar FF have managed 1W 3D 4L from 8 games — 0.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mjallby AIF's away record stands at 2W 2D 4L across 8 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kalmar FF are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.25 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mjallby AIF in 62%.
Last 16 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kalmar FF
Blended
Mjallby AIF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kalmar FF and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
Kalmar FF have gone 3W 4D 9L in their last 16 games (0.81 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 5W 5D 6L in their last 16 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kalmar FF at home or Mjallby AIF away?
Mjallby AIF's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kalmar FF at home: 0.75 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mjallby AIF won 4-0 on 17 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kalmar FF have gone 2W 0D 4L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Mjallby AIF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Kalmar FF
2
Draws
6
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and Mjallby AIF?
From 10 meetings on record, Kalmar FF have won 2, Mjallby AIF have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kalmar FF and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Kalmar FF 2-1 Mjallby AIF.
Who has won more matches between Kalmar FF and Mjallby AIF?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Mjallby AIF see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kalmar FF 62%, Mjallby AIF 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Kalmar FF) and 38% (Mjallby AIF).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kalmar FF home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kalmar FF play Mjallby AIF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Kalmar FF's games and 50% of Mjallby AIF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kalmar FF vs Mjallby AIF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Kalmar FF's recent games and 38% of Mjallby AIF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kalmar FF and Mjallby AIF tend to score early?
Kalmar FF have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Mjallby AIF in 38% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Mjallby AIF run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Kalmar FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat Kalmar FF 1-4 at Guldfågeln Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kalmar FF 1.08 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.15 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Mjallby AIF outscored their 1.15 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kalmar FF attack 0.79 / defence 1.24 against Mjallby AIF attack 0.69 / defence 1.22, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kalmar FF 33% | Draw 31% | Mjallby AIF 36%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kalmar FF 56%, Mjallby AIF 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kalmar FF's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Mjallby AIF arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.81. Form held, and they took the win. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.