Kalmar FF 1-2 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kalmar FF at 38%, yet in-form IF Elfsborg provide a compelling counter-argument — this Kalmar FF vs IF Elfsborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Guldfågeln Arena plays host to Kalmar FF versus IF Elfsborg in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Monday 13 July 2020 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Kalmar FF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 2W 0D 4L from 6 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.33 goals per game and conceding 1.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Kalmar FF have played only a handful of Allsvenskan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
IF Elfsborg (all games): 2W 4D 0L across 6 Allsvenskan outings this term — 1.67 points per game. Last five: D D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.67 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 6 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. IF Elfsborg have played only a handful of Allsvenskan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
IF Elfsborg's away record: 1W 2D 0L from 3 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.67 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 3 games (67%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On a straight form reading, IF Elfsborg are the stronger side — 0.67 PPG clear of the hosts (1.67 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
Kalmar FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
IF Elfsborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kalmar FF 33% versus IF Elfsborg 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kalmar FF 67% | IF Elfsborg 17%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kalmar FF 1.10 xG and IF Elfsborg 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kalmar FF attack 1.254 / defence 1.170 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.725 / defence 0.882. League average goals — home 0.996 / away 1.149. Kalmar FF carry an above-average attack strength of 1.254 — their λ of 1.10 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 6 Kalmar FF games / 6 IF Elfsborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kalmar FF 38% | Draw 30% | IF Elfsborg 32%. Fair-value odds: Kalmar FF 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | IF Elfsborg 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Kalmar FF as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form IF Elfsborg (1.67 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kalmar FF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.08 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Kalmar FF 33% | IF Elfsborg 33% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kalmar FF vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Guldfågeln Arena • Kick-off: Monday 13 Jul 2020, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kalmar FF 38% | Draw 30% | IF Elfsborg 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Kalmar FF 1.10 / IF Elfsborg 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Kalmar FF attack 1.254 / def 1.170 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.725 / def 0.882 | league avg home 0.996 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Kalmar FF (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Kalmar FF xG
Expected Goals
0.97
IF Elfsborg xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kalmar FF vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
Kalmar FF vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 13 July 2020 at Guldfågeln Arena.
What was the final score in Kalmar FF vs IF Elfsborg?
Kalmar FF 1 - 2 IF Elfsborg.
Where is Kalmar FF vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at Guldfågeln Arena.
What competition is Kalmar FF vs IF Elfsborg part of?
Kalmar FF vs IF Elfsborg is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Kalmar FF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives Kalmar FF a 38% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Kalmar FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kalmar FF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Kalmar FF and IF Elfsborg will score (BTTS).
Will Kalmar FF vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and IF Elfsborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kalmar FF and IF Elfsborg in?
Kalmar FF (all comps): 2W-0D-4L in 6 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.67 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. IF Elfsborg (all comps): 2W-4D-0L in 6 | 1.67 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.67 | L5 D-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Kalmar FF's attacking strength (1.25x league average) is weighed against IF Elfsborg's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. Flip it around — IF Elfsborg's attack (0.72x) against Kalmar FF's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kalmar FF Win
38%
2.62
30%
3.32
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Kalmar FF xG
Total xG
2.08
0.97
IF Elfsborg xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.41
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
14%
6.93
11%
9.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 12.2 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kalmar FF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Kalmar FF and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Kalmar FF and 0.97 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Kalmar FF vs IF Elfsborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 6 outings, Kalmar FF have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 2W 0D 4L record — W-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Kalmar FF, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
IF Elfsborg's form line: 2W 4D 0L from 6 games, 1.67 PPG, last five D-D-D-D-W. It's still early in the season for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, IF Elfsborg are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kalmar FF.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kalmar FF are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 1.00 scored and 0.67 conceded.
Defensively: IF Elfsborg in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kalmar FF
Early Season
IF Elfsborg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kalmar FF and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
Kalmar FF have gone 2W 0D 4L in their last 6 games (1.00 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 2W 4D 0L in their last 6 (1.67 PPG).
Have Kalmar FF or IF Elfsborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kalmar FF have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, IF Elfsborg in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IF Elfsborg won 0-4 on 9 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kalmar FF have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against IF Elfsborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Kalmar FF
1
Draws
4
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and IF Elfsborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Kalmar FF have won 5, IF Elfsborg have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kalmar FF and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when Kalmar FF 2-1 IF Elfsborg.
Who has won more matches between Kalmar FF and IF Elfsborg?
Kalmar FF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kalmar FF 33%, IF Elfsborg 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Kalmar FF) and 17% (IF Elfsborg).
On the defensive side: Kalmar FF keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; IF Elfsborg in 50%; Kalmar FF have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kalmar FF home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kalmar FF play IF Elfsborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Kalmar FF's recent matches and 50% of IF Elfsborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kalmar FF vs IF Elfsborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Kalmar FF's recent games and 17% of IF Elfsborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kalmar FF and IF Elfsborg tend to score early?
Kalmar FF have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, IF Elfsborg in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as IF Elfsborg defy the odds to beat Kalmar FF 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg beat Kalmar FF 1-2 at Guldfågeln Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kalmar FF 1.10 xG and IF Elfsborg 0.97 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. IF Elfsborg outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kalmar FF attack 1.25 / defence 1.17 against IF Elfsborg attack 0.72 / defence 0.88, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kalmar FF 38% | Draw 30% | IF Elfsborg 32%, with Kalmar FF to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual IF Elfsborg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kalmar FF 67%, IF Elfsborg 17%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kalmar FF's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Elfsborg arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. IF Elfsborg scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.