Kalmar FF 1-0 Djurgardens IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kalmar FF at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Guldfågeln Arena plays host to Kalmar FF versus Djurgardens IF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Sunday 22 May 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Kalmar FF have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Kalmar FF's home record at Guldfågeln Arena: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Djurgardens IF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Djurgardens IF have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Kalmar FF, 1.60 for Djurgardens IF — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Djurgardens IF hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 3 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2021, ended 2–3 with Djurgardens IF winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Djurgardens IF have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Kalmar FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Djurgardens IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kalmar FF 52% versus Djurgardens IF 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kalmar FF 48% | Djurgardens IF 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kalmar FF 0.99 xG and Djurgardens IF 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kalmar FF attack 0.957 / defence 0.896 | Djurgardens IF attack 0.732 / defence 0.711. League average goals — home 1.457 / away 1.080. Djurgardens IF's defence strength of 0.711 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 38 Kalmar FF games / 39 Djurgardens IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kalmar FF 41% | Draw 34% | Djurgardens IF 25%. Fair-value odds: Kalmar FF 2.44 | Draw 2.94 | Djurgardens IF 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.70. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.70 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Djurgardens IF's lower xG of 0.71 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Kalmar FF as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kalmar FF if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.70 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 24% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 32% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kalmar FF 50% | Djurgardens IF 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Guldfågeln Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 22 May 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kalmar FF 41% | Draw 34% | Djurgardens IF 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 32% | xG Kalmar FF 0.99 / Djurgardens IF 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Kalmar FF attack 0.957 / def 0.896 | Djurgardens IF attack 0.732 / def 0.711 | league avg home 1.457 / away 1.080 • Poisson stance: Kalmar FF (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Kalmar FF xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Djurgardens IF xG
32%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF kick off?
Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 22 May 2022 at Guldfågeln Arena.
What was the final score in Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Kalmar FF 1 - 0 Djurgardens IF.
Where is Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF being played?
The match is being played at Guldfågeln Arena.
What competition is Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF part of?
Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our statistical model gives Kalmar FF a 41% chance of winning, Djurgardens IF a 25% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Kalmar FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Kalmar FF and Djurgardens IF will score (BTTS).
Will Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and Djurgardens IF?
Record (3 meetings): Kalmar FF 0W | Draws 0 | Djurgardens IF 3W.
What form are Kalmar FF and Djurgardens IF in?
Kalmar FF (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Djurgardens IF (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Kalmar FF's attack at 0.96x the league average against Djurgardens IF's defence at 0.71x — combine the two and it projects 0.99 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Djurgardens IF's attack (0.73x) against Kalmar FF's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.71.
These ratings are built from 38/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 20.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (16.5%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kalmar FF Win
41%
2.43
34%
2.98
25%
3.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
18.1%
Home win
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Kalmar FF xG
Total xG
1.70
0.71
Djurgardens IF xG
2.43
41%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
3.94
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.13
68%
BTTS No
1.47
Clean Sheet
49%
2.03
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
20%
4.94
9%
10.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.3 | 12.9 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.1 | 12.8 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.0 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.0%.
How many goals are Kalmar FF and Djurgardens IF expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Kalmar FF and 0.71 for Djurgardens IF, a combined total of 1.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, Kalmar FF have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 20W 18D 22L record — W-W-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Djurgardens IF's form line: 31W 12D 17L from 60 games, 1.75 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-W.
Put side by side, Djurgardens IF are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kalmar FF.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Kalmar FF have posted 1.07 PPG from 30 outings (7W 11D 12L).
On the road, Djurgardens IF have gone 14W 6D 10L from 30 away games — 1.60 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Djurgardens IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kalmar FF are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Djurgardens IF are on 1.57 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kalmar FF
Current Season
Djurgardens IF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kalmar FF and Djurgardens IF in coming into this match?
Kalmar FF have gone 20W 18D 22L in their last 60 games (1.30 PPG), while Djurgardens IF have gone 31W 12D 17L in their last 60 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kalmar FF at home or Djurgardens IF away?
Djurgardens IF's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kalmar FF at home: 1.07 PPG; Djurgardens IF away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Kalmar FF or Djurgardens IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kalmar FF have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Djurgardens IF in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Djurgardens IF won 0-3 on 22 Nov 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kalmar FF have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Djurgardens IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Kalmar FF
1
Draws
6
Djurgardens IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and Djurgardens IF?
From 10 meetings on record, Kalmar FF have won 3, Djurgardens IF have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kalmar FF and Djurgardens IF last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Djurgardens IF 3-2 Kalmar FF.
Who has won more matches between Kalmar FF and Djurgardens IF?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kalmar FF see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kalmar FF 47%, Djurgardens IF 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Kalmar FF) and 40% (Djurgardens IF).
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF in 40%; Kalmar FF have failed to score in 40% of games; Djurgardens IF in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kalmar FF home games / Djurgardens IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kalmar FF play Djurgardens IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Kalmar FF's recent matches and 37% of Djurgardens IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Kalmar FF's recent games and 40% of Djurgardens IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kalmar FF and Djurgardens IF tend to score early?
Kalmar FF have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Djurgardens IF in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kalmar FF edge out Djurgardens IF 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kalmar FF beat Djurgardens IF 1-0 at Guldfågeln Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kalmar FF 0.99 xG and Djurgardens IF 0.71 xG, a combined 1.70. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kalmar FF attack 0.96 / defence 0.90 against Djurgardens IF attack 0.73 / defence 0.71, drawn from 38/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kalmar FF 41% | Draw 34% | Djurgardens IF 25%, with Kalmar FF to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 51% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kalmar FF 48%, Djurgardens IF 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kalmar FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Djurgardens IF arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.30. Form was overturned, with Kalmar FF winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.