Kalmar FF 2-1 Djurgardens IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Djurgardens IF (70%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Kalmar FF face Djurgardens IF.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Guldfågeln Arena plays host to Kalmar FF versus Djurgardens IF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Saturday 20 July 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Kalmar FF have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kalmar FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kalmar FF's home record at Guldfågeln Arena: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Djurgardens IF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 8W 0D 2L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Djurgardens IF have gone 7W 0D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
On a straight form reading, Djurgardens IF are the stronger side — 1.40 PPG clear of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Djurgardens IF hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 7 meetings. The hosts have won just 2 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.1 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2023, ended 2–1 with Kalmar FF winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Djurgardens IF have won 5 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Kalmar FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Djurgardens IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kalmar FF 52% versus Djurgardens IF 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kalmar FF 57% | Djurgardens IF 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kalmar FF 0.99 xG and Djurgardens IF 2.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kalmar FF attack 0.780 / defence 1.269 | Djurgardens IF attack 1.394 / defence 0.761. League average goals — home 1.671 / away 1.398. Kalmar FF's attack strength of 0.780 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Djurgardens IF's defence strength of 0.761 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Djurgardens IF have an above-average attack strength of 1.394 — the away xG of 2.47 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 44 Kalmar FF games / 44 Djurgardens IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kalmar FF 13% | Draw 17% | Djurgardens IF 70%. Fair-value odds: Kalmar FF 7.69 | Draw 5.88 | Djurgardens IF 1.43. The model has a clear lean to Djurgardens IF (70%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Djurgardens IF as the most likely outcome at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.46 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kalmar FF 60% | Djurgardens IF 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Guldfågeln Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Jul 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kalmar FF 13% | Draw 17% | Djurgardens IF 70% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 58% | xG Kalmar FF 0.99 / Djurgardens IF 2.47 • Poisson strength factors: Kalmar FF attack 0.780 / def 1.269 | Djurgardens IF attack 1.394 / def 0.761 | league avg home 1.671 / away 1.398 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Kalmar FF xG
Expected Goals
2.47
Djurgardens IF xG
58%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF kick off?
Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 20 July 2024 at Guldfågeln Arena.
What was the final score in Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Kalmar FF 2 - 1 Djurgardens IF.
Where is Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF being played?
The match is being played at Guldfågeln Arena.
What competition is Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF part of?
Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our statistical model gives Kalmar FF a 13% chance of winning, Djurgardens IF a 70% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Kalmar FF and Djurgardens IF will score (BTTS).
Will Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and Djurgardens IF?
Record (7 meetings): Kalmar FF 2W | Draws 0 | Djurgardens IF 5W.
What form are Kalmar FF and Djurgardens IF in?
Kalmar FF (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Djurgardens IF (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Kalmar FF's attack at 0.78x the league average against Djurgardens IF's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 0.99 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Djurgardens IF's attack (1.39x) against Kalmar FF's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 2.47.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 9.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 1-1 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
13%
7.55
17%
5.88
70%
1.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 3
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Kalmar FF xG
Total xG
3.46
2.47
Djurgardens IF xG
7.55
13%
Home win
5.88
17%
Draw
1.43
70%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
8%
11.86
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
1%
89.56
26%
3.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 7.9 | 4.9 | 2.4 |
| 1 | 3.1 | 7.7 | 9.5 | 7.8 | 4.8 | 2.4 |
| 2 | 1.5 | 3.8 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Kalmar FF and Djurgardens IF expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Kalmar FF and 2.47 for Djurgardens IF, a combined total of 3.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 44 outings, Kalmar FF have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 17W 7D 20L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Kalmar FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Djurgardens IF's form line: 25W 6D 13L from 44 games, 1.84 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W. The sample for Djurgardens IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Djurgardens IF are the form team by 0.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kalmar FF.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Kalmar FF have posted 1.33 PPG from 21 outings (8W 4D 9L).
On the road, Djurgardens IF have gone 10W 3D 8L from 21 away games — 1.57 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kalmar FF are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Djurgardens IF are on 1.57 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kalmar FF
Blended
Djurgardens IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kalmar FF and Djurgardens IF in coming into this match?
Kalmar FF have gone 17W 7D 20L in their last 44 games (1.32 PPG), while Djurgardens IF have gone 25W 6D 13L in their last 44 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kalmar FF at home or Djurgardens IF away?
Djurgardens IF's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kalmar FF at home: 1.33 PPG; Djurgardens IF away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Kalmar FF or Djurgardens IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kalmar FF have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Djurgardens IF in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Djurgardens IF won 0-3 on 22 Nov 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kalmar FF have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Djurgardens IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Kalmar FF
1
Draws
6
Djurgardens IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and Djurgardens IF?
From 10 meetings on record, Kalmar FF have won 3, Djurgardens IF have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kalmar FF and Djurgardens IF last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Djurgardens IF 3-2 Kalmar FF.
Who has won more matches between Kalmar FF and Djurgardens IF?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kalmar FF see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kalmar FF 52%, Djurgardens IF 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Kalmar FF) and 52% (Djurgardens IF).
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF in 33%; Kalmar FF have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kalmar FF home games / Djurgardens IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kalmar FF play Djurgardens IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Kalmar FF's recent matches and 52% of Djurgardens IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Kalmar FF's recent games and 52% of Djurgardens IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kalmar FF and Djurgardens IF tend to score early?
Kalmar FF have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Djurgardens IF in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kalmar FF defy the odds to beat Djurgardens IF 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kalmar FF beat Djurgardens IF 2-1 at Guldfågeln Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kalmar FF 0.99 xG and Djurgardens IF 2.47 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Kalmar FF beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Djurgardens IF landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kalmar FF attack 0.78 / defence 1.27 against Djurgardens IF attack 1.39 / defence 0.76, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kalmar FF 13% | Draw 17% | Djurgardens IF 70%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 70%. Instead the game produced a Kalmar FF win, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kalmar FF 57%, Djurgardens IF 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kalmar FF's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Djurgardens IF arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.32. Form was overturned, with Kalmar FF winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.