IFK Varnamo 1-0 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Varnamo at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this IFK Varnamo vs Landskrona BoIS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Relegation Round as IFK Varnamo welcome Landskrona BoIS to Finnvedsvallen. Kick-off is set for Sunday 24 November 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, IFK Varnamo have gone 2W 6D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D L W D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
IFK Varnamo's home record at Finnvedsvallen: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Landskrona BoIS stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Landskrona BoIS have played only a handful of Allsvenskan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Landskrona BoIS have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: IFK Varnamo 1.20 PPG, Landskrona BoIS 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for IFK Varnamo, 1 for Landskrona BoIS and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
IFK Varnamo in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Landskrona BoIS in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Varnamo 48% versus Landskrona BoIS 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Varnamo 42% | Landskrona BoIS 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Varnamo 1.24 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Varnamo attack 0.761 / defence 1.122 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.164. IFK Varnamo's attack strength of 0.761 is below the league average — the 1.24 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 60 IFK Varnamo games / 0 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 39% | Draw 28% | Landskrona BoIS 33%. Fair-value odds: IFK Varnamo 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Landskrona BoIS 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, IFK Varnamo are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IFK Varnamo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.3 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. This conflicts with form data: IFK Varnamo 50% | Landskrona BoIS 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Varnamo vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Allsvenskan, Relegation Round | Venue: Finnvedsvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Nov 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 39% | Draw 28% | Landskrona BoIS 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG IFK Varnamo 1.24 / Landskrona BoIS 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Varnamo attack 0.761 / def 1.122 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.412 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: IFK Varnamo (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
IFK Varnamo xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Landskrona BoIS xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Varnamo vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
IFK Varnamo vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 24 November 2024 at Finnvedsvallen.
What was the final score in IFK Varnamo vs Landskrona BoIS?
IFK Varnamo 1 - 0 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is IFK Varnamo vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at Finnvedsvallen.
What competition is IFK Varnamo vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
IFK Varnamo vs Landskrona BoIS is a Relegation Round fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Varnamo vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives IFK Varnamo a 39% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making IFK Varnamo the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Varnamo vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both IFK Varnamo and Landskrona BoIS will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Varnamo vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and Landskrona BoIS?
Record (3 meetings): IFK Varnamo 1W | Draws 1 | Landskrona BoIS 1W.
What form are IFK Varnamo and Landskrona BoIS in?
IFK Varnamo (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-D-D. Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about IFK Varnamo vs Landskrona BoIS?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
IFK Varnamo's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Landskrona BoIS's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. The same calculation in reverse, Landskrona BoIS's attack versus IFK Varnamo's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Varnamo Win
39%
2.56
28%
3.58
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
IFK Varnamo xG
Total xG
2.35
1.11
Landskrona BoIS xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
29%
3.44
Win to Nil
13%
7.76
10%
10.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 10.6 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.1 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Varnamo vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are IFK Varnamo and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for IFK Varnamo and 1.11 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Varnamo vs Landskrona BoIS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 31 outings, IFK Varnamo have picked up 1.03 PPG on a 7W 11D 13L record — D-L-W-D-D across the most recent five.
Landskrona BoIS's form line: 11W 7D 13L from 31 games, 1.29 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: IFK Varnamo on 1.03 PPG, Landskrona BoIS on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, IFK Varnamo have posted 0.67 PPG from 15 outings (2W 4D 9L).
On the road, Landskrona BoIS have gone 5W 2D 8L from 15 away games — 1.13 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Landskrona BoIS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
IFK Varnamo are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Landskrona BoIS are on 1.35 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Landskrona BoIS in 61%.
Last 31 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Varnamo
Current Season
Landskrona BoIS
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Varnamo and Landskrona BoIS in coming into this match?
IFK Varnamo have gone 7W 11D 13L in their last 31 games (1.03 PPG), while Landskrona BoIS have gone 11W 7D 13L in their last 31 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Varnamo at home or Landskrona BoIS away?
Landskrona BoIS's away record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Varnamo at home: 0.67 PPG; Landskrona BoIS away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IFK Varnamo and Landskrona BoIS runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Superettan, Allsvenskan all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 28 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
IFK Varnamo's record when hosting Landskrona BoIS specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
IFK Varnamo
1
Draws
2
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and Landskrona BoIS?
From 5 meetings on record, IFK Varnamo have won 2, Landskrona BoIS have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IFK Varnamo and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
They last met on 28 June 2026, when Landskrona BoIS 1-0 IFK Varnamo.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IFK Varnamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Varnamo 53%, Landskrona BoIS 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for IFK Varnamo and 67% for Landskrona BoIS. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IFK Varnamo have failed to score in 33% of games; Landskrona BoIS in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Varnamo home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Varnamo play Landskrona BoIS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of IFK Varnamo's recent matches and 53% of Landskrona BoIS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Varnamo vs Landskrona BoIS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of IFK Varnamo's matches and 67% of Landskrona BoIS's.
Do IFK Varnamo and Landskrona BoIS tend to score early?
IFK Varnamo have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Landskrona BoIS in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as IFK Varnamo edge out Landskrona BoIS 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Varnamo beat Landskrona BoIS 1-0 at Finnvedsvallen, Relegation Round, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Varnamo 1.24 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.11 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Landskrona BoIS landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Varnamo attack 0.76 / defence 1.12 against Landskrona BoIS attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 60/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Varnamo 39% | Draw 28% | Landskrona BoIS 33%, with IFK Varnamo to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Varnamo 42%, Landskrona BoIS 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Varnamo 1.03 PPG, Landskrona BoIS 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Varnamo win broke the near-deadlock. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.