IFK Varnamo 1-3 IFK Norrkoping – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates IFK Norrkoping at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as IFK Varnamo face IFK Norrkoping.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
IFK Varnamo welcome IFK Norrkoping to Finnvedsvallen in Allsvenskan (matchday 6). Kick-off is Sunday 27 April 2025 at 16:30 UK time.
Form Guide
IFK Varnamo — last 10 games: 3W 6D 1L, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
IFK Varnamo's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at their last 10 matches, IFK Norrkoping stand at 2W 5D 3L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, IFK Norrkoping have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — IFK Varnamo at 1.50 PPG versus IFK Norrkoping's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 6 H2H matches, IFK Varnamo have won 2, IFK Norrkoping 3, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 27 Oct 2024, ended IFK Varnamo 1–2 IFK Norrkoping — a IFK Norrkoping win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
IFK Varnamo in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
IFK Norrkoping in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Varnamo 47% versus IFK Norrkoping 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Varnamo 45% | IFK Norrkoping 62%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: IFK Varnamo surrender their half-time lead 28% of the time, while IFK Norrkoping have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 30% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Varnamo 1.37 xG and IFK Norrkoping 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Varnamo attack 0.771 / defence 1.099 | IFK Norrkoping attack 1.045 / defence 1.244. League average goals — home 1.432 / away 1.243. IFK Varnamo's attack rating of 0.771 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.37. IFK Norrkoping's defence rating of 1.244 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing IFK Varnamo's projected output up. Data: built from IFK Varnamo's last 35 games and IFK Norrkoping's last 35.
Result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 36% | Draw 25% | IFK Norrkoping 39%. Fair-value odds: IFK Varnamo 2.77 | Draw 3.96 | IFK Norrkoping 2.59. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates IFK Norrkoping as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IFK Norrkoping offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: IFK Varnamo 40% (last 10 home games) | IFK Norrkoping 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Varnamo vs IFK Norrkoping | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 6 | Venue: Finnvedsvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 27 April 2025 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 36% | Draw 25% | IFK Norrkoping 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG IFK Varnamo 1.37 / IFK Norrkoping 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Varnamo attack 0.771 / def 1.099 | IFK Norrkoping attack 1.045 / def 1.244 | league avg home 1.432 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: IFK Norrkoping (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
IFK Varnamo xG
Expected Goals
1.43
IFK Norrkoping xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ IFK Varnamo vs IFK Norrkoping FAQs
What time does IFK Varnamo vs IFK Norrkoping kick off?
IFK Varnamo vs IFK Norrkoping kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Sunday 27 April 2025 at Finnvedsvallen.
What was the final score in IFK Varnamo vs IFK Norrkoping?
IFK Varnamo 1 - 3 IFK Norrkoping.
Where is IFK Varnamo vs IFK Norrkoping being played?
The match is being played at Finnvedsvallen.
What competition is IFK Varnamo vs IFK Norrkoping part of?
IFK Varnamo vs IFK Norrkoping is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 6) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Varnamo vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our statistical model gives IFK Varnamo a 36% chance of winning, IFK Norrkoping a 39% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making IFK Norrkoping the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Varnamo vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both IFK Varnamo and IFK Norrkoping will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will IFK Varnamo vs IFK Norrkoping have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates IFK Varnamo's attack at 0.77x the league average against IFK Norrkoping's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, IFK Norrkoping's attack versus IFK Varnamo's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from IFK Varnamo's last 35 games and IFK Norrkoping's last 35 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Norrkoping Win
36%
2.77
25%
3.96
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
IFK Varnamo xG
Total xG
2.80
1.43
IFK Norrkoping xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
25%
3.95
Win to Nil
9%
11.53
10%
10.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.7 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.9 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.2 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ IFK Varnamo vs IFK Norrkoping Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Varnamo vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are IFK Varnamo and IFK Norrkoping expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for IFK Varnamo and 1.43 for IFK Norrkoping, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Varnamo vs IFK Norrkoping?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, IFK Varnamo have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 21W 14D 25L record — L-W-D-D-W across the most recent five.
IFK Norrkoping's form line: 21W 12D 27L from 60 games, 1.25 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: IFK Varnamo on 1.28 PPG, IFK Norrkoping on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, IFK Varnamo have posted 1.10 PPG from their last 30 home games (9W 6D 15L).
On the road, IFK Norrkoping have gone 8W 8D 14L from their last 30 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
IFK Varnamo are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; IFK Norrkoping are on 1.35 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IFK Norrkoping in 63%.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Varnamo
Current Season
IFK Norrkoping
Current Season
IFK Varnamo (Home) vs IFK Norrkoping (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
IFK Varnamo
Current Season
IFK Norrkoping
Current Season
❓ IFK Varnamo vs IFK Norrkoping Form FAQs
What form are IFK Varnamo and IFK Norrkoping in coming into this match?
IFK Varnamo have gone 21W 14D 25L in their last 60 games (1.28 PPG), while IFK Norrkoping have gone 21W 12D 27L in their last 60 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Varnamo at home or IFK Norrkoping away?
IFK Varnamo's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Varnamo at home: 1.10 PPG; IFK Norrkoping away: 1.07 PPG.
Have IFK Varnamo or IFK Norrkoping been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Varnamo have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, IFK Norrkoping in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from May 2022. They cover more than one competition — Allsvenskan, Superettan. The most recent was as recently as 7 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: IFK Norrkoping have taken the most recent 5 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 4 Apr 2026, when IFK Norrkoping won IFK Norrkoping 6-0 IFK Varnamo.
IFK Varnamo's record when hosting IFK Norrkoping specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
IFK Varnamo
1
Draws
7
IFK Norrkoping
Recent Meetings
❓ IFK Varnamo vs IFK Norrkoping H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and IFK Norrkoping?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, IFK Varnamo have won 2, IFK Norrkoping have won 7, and 1 has been drawn.
When did IFK Varnamo and IFK Norrkoping last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 November 2026: IFK Varnamo 0-2 IFK Norrkoping.
Who has won more matches between IFK Varnamo and IFK Norrkoping?
IFK Norrkoping have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
IFK Varnamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
IFK Norrkoping are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Varnamo 43%, IFK Norrkoping 77% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (IFK Varnamo) and 73% (IFK Norrkoping). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IFK Varnamo have failed to score in 37% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Varnamo home games / IFK Norrkoping away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ IFK Varnamo vs IFK Norrkoping Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in IFK Varnamo and IFK Norrkoping matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of IFK Varnamo's games and 77% of IFK Norrkoping's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are IFK Varnamo and IFK Norrkoping matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of IFK Varnamo's matches and 73% of IFK Norrkoping's.
Do IFK Varnamo and IFK Norrkoping matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of IFK Varnamo's recent matches and 77% of IFK Norrkoping's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IFK Norrkoping cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over IFK Varnamo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Norrkoping beat IFK Varnamo 1-3 at Finnvedsvallen, Regular Season - 6, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Varnamo 1.37 xG and IFK Norrkoping 1.43 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. IFK Norrkoping outscored their 1.43 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Varnamo attack 0.77 / defence 1.10 against IFK Norrkoping attack 1.04 / defence 1.24, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Varnamo 36% | Draw 25% | IFK Norrkoping 39%, with IFK Norrkoping to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Varnamo 45%, IFK Norrkoping 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Varnamo 1.28 PPG, IFK Norrkoping 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Norrkoping win broke the near-deadlock. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IFK Norrkoping (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.