IFK Norrkoping 0-1 Djurgardens IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Norrkoping at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this IFK Norrkoping vs Djurgardens IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
PlatinumCars Arena plays host to IFK Norrkoping versus Djurgardens IF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Monday 31 October 2022 at 18:10 UTC.
Form
IFK Norrkoping (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
IFK Norrkoping's home record at PlatinumCars Arena: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Djurgardens IF have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L L L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Djurgardens IF's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for IFK Norrkoping against 1.70 for Djurgardens IF. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — IFK Norrkoping lead 0W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Apr 2022, ended 1–2 with Djurgardens IF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
IFK Norrkoping — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Djurgardens IF — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Norrkoping 60% versus Djurgardens IF 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Norrkoping 52% | Djurgardens IF 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Norrkoping 1.50 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Norrkoping attack 1.144 / defence 1.102 | Djurgardens IF attack 1.018 / defence 0.883. League average goals — home 1.487 / away 1.260. Data: 58 IFK Norrkoping games / 58 Djurgardens IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Norrkoping 37% | Draw 29% | Djurgardens IF 33%. Fair-value odds: IFK Norrkoping 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | Djurgardens IF 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.50 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, IFK Norrkoping are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IFK Norrkoping if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates are neutral: IFK Norrkoping 50% | Djurgardens IF 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Norrkoping vs Djurgardens IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: PlatinumCars Arena • Kick-off: Monday 31 Oct 2022, 18:10 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Norrkoping 37% | Draw 29% | Djurgardens IF 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 61% | xG IFK Norrkoping 1.50 / Djurgardens IF 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Norrkoping attack 1.144 / def 1.102 | Djurgardens IF attack 1.018 / def 0.883 | league avg home 1.487 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: IFK Norrkoping (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
IFK Norrkoping xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Djurgardens IF xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Norrkoping vs Djurgardens IF kick off?
IFK Norrkoping vs Djurgardens IF kicked off at 18:10 on Monday 31 October 2022 at PlatinumCars Arena.
What was the final score in IFK Norrkoping vs Djurgardens IF?
IFK Norrkoping 0 - 1 Djurgardens IF.
Where is IFK Norrkoping vs Djurgardens IF being played?
The match is being played at PlatinumCars Arena.
What competition is IFK Norrkoping vs Djurgardens IF part of?
IFK Norrkoping vs Djurgardens IF is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Norrkoping vs Djurgardens IF?
Our statistical model gives IFK Norrkoping a 37% chance of winning, Djurgardens IF a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making IFK Norrkoping the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Norrkoping vs Djurgardens IF?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both IFK Norrkoping and Djurgardens IF will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Norrkoping vs Djurgardens IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Norrkoping and Djurgardens IF?
Record (3 meetings): IFK Norrkoping 0W | Draws 1 | Djurgardens IF 2W.
What form are IFK Norrkoping and Djurgardens IF in?
IFK Norrkoping (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. Djurgardens IF (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates IFK Norrkoping's attack at 1.14x the league average against Djurgardens IF's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Djurgardens IF's attack (1.02x) against IFK Norrkoping's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Norrkoping Win
37%
2.68
29%
3.42
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
IFK Norrkoping xG
Total xG
2.91
1.41
Djurgardens IF xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
9%
10.99
7%
13.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.7 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.5 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.6 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Norrkoping vs Djurgardens IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are IFK Norrkoping and Djurgardens IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for IFK Norrkoping and 1.41 for Djurgardens IF, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Norrkoping vs Djurgardens IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
IFK Norrkoping come into this having played 58 games, going 21W 14D 23L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-D.
On the other side, Djurgardens IF sit at 1.91 PPG from 58 outings (33W 12D 13L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-W across their last five.
Djurgardens IF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of IFK Norrkoping — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
IFK Norrkoping's home form reads 13W 8D 8L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Djurgardens IF have taken 1.55 points per game from 29 outings (12W 9D 8L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
IFK Norrkoping are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Djurgardens IF are on 1.72 scored and 0.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IFK Norrkoping have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Norrkoping
Current Season
Djurgardens IF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Norrkoping and Djurgardens IF in coming into this match?
IFK Norrkoping have gone 21W 14D 23L in their last 58 games (1.33 PPG), while Djurgardens IF have gone 33W 12D 13L in their last 58 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Norrkoping at home or Djurgardens IF away?
IFK Norrkoping's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Norrkoping at home: 1.62 PPG; Djurgardens IF away: 1.55 PPG.
Have IFK Norrkoping or Djurgardens IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Norrkoping have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Djurgardens IF in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 31 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Djurgardens IF won 0-4 on 31 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IFK Norrkoping have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Djurgardens IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
IFK Norrkoping
3
Draws
7
Djurgardens IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Norrkoping and Djurgardens IF?
From 10 meetings on record, IFK Norrkoping have won 0, Djurgardens IF have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did IFK Norrkoping and Djurgardens IF last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2025, when IFK Norrkoping 0-4 Djurgardens IF.
Who has won more matches between IFK Norrkoping and Djurgardens IF?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
IFK Norrkoping are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Norrkoping 62%, Djurgardens IF 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (IFK Norrkoping) and 31% (Djurgardens IF).
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF in 41%; Djurgardens IF in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Norrkoping home games / Djurgardens IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Norrkoping play Djurgardens IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of IFK Norrkoping's recent matches and 31% of Djurgardens IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Norrkoping vs Djurgardens IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of IFK Norrkoping's recent games and 31% of Djurgardens IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Norrkoping and Djurgardens IF tend to score early?
IFK Norrkoping have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Djurgardens IF in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Djurgardens IF defy the odds to beat IFK Norrkoping 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF beat IFK Norrkoping 0-1 at PlatinumCars Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Norrkoping 1.50 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.41 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. IFK Norrkoping fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Norrkoping attack 1.14 / defence 1.10 against Djurgardens IF attack 1.02 / defence 0.88, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Norrkoping 37% | Draw 29% | Djurgardens IF 33%, with IFK Norrkoping to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Djurgardens IF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Norrkoping 52%, Djurgardens IF 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Djurgardens IF arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.33. Form held, and they took the win. IFK Norrkoping (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.79 scoring average — below par going forward. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.