IFK Goteborg 1-0 Vasteras SK FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Goteborg at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this IFK Goteborg vs Vasteras SK FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 23 as IFK Goteborg welcome Vasteras SK FK to Gamla Ullevi. Kick-off is set for Friday 9 October 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, IFK Goteborg have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for IFK Goteborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IFK Goteborg's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Gamla Ullevi this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Vasteras SK FK — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Vasteras SK FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vasteras SK FK away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, IFK Goteborg have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. IFK Goteborg register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Vasteras SK FK in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for IFK Goteborg, 0 for Vasteras SK FK and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 May 2026, ended 5–4 with IFK Goteborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
IFK Goteborg trading profile (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Vasteras SK FK trading profile (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Goteborg 48% versus Vasteras SK FK 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Goteborg 52% | Vasteras SK FK 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Goteborg 1.81 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Goteborg attack 0.977 / defence 0.965 | Vasteras SK FK attack 1.078 / defence 1.269. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.291. Vasteras SK FK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.269 — this is suppressing IFK Goteborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 IFK Goteborg games / 22 Vasteras SK FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 48% | Draw 24% | Vasteras SK FK 28%. Fair-value odds: IFK Goteborg 2.08 | Draw 4.17 | Vasteras SK FK 3.57. IFK Goteborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.81 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, IFK Goteborg are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IFK Goteborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.15 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: IFK Goteborg 70% | Vasteras SK FK 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Goteborg vs Vasteras SK FK | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Friday 9 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 48% | Draw 24% | Vasteras SK FK 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG IFK Goteborg 1.81 / Vasteras SK FK 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Goteborg attack 0.977 / def 0.965 | Vasteras SK FK attack 1.078 / def 1.269 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.291 • Poisson stance: IFK Goteborg (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
IFK Goteborg xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Vasteras SK FK xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Goteborg vs Vasteras SK FK kick off?
IFK Goteborg vs Vasteras SK FK kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 9 October 2026 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in IFK Goteborg vs Vasteras SK FK?
IFK Goteborg 1 - 0 Vasteras SK FK.
Where is IFK Goteborg vs Vasteras SK FK being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is IFK Goteborg vs Vasteras SK FK part of?
IFK Goteborg vs Vasteras SK FK is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Goteborg vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our statistical model gives IFK Goteborg a 48% chance of winning, Vasteras SK FK a 28% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making IFK Goteborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Goteborg vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both IFK Goteborg and Vasteras SK FK will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Goteborg vs Vasteras SK FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and Vasteras SK FK?
Record (3 meetings): IFK Goteborg 1W | Draws 2 | Vasteras SK FK 0W.
What form are IFK Goteborg and Vasteras SK FK in?
IFK Goteborg (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from IFK Goteborg's attack rating (0.98) and Vasteras SK FK's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.81 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Vasteras SK FK's attack versus IFK Goteborg's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Goteborg Win
48%
2.09
24%
4.10
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
IFK Goteborg xG
Total xG
3.15
1.34
Vasteras SK FK xG
2.09
48%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
16%
6.10
Win to Nil
12%
8.02
5%
21.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.7 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.4 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.7 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Goteborg vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are IFK Goteborg and Vasteras SK FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for IFK Goteborg and 1.34 for Vasteras SK FK, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Goteborg vs Vasteras SK FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
IFK Goteborg come into this having played 52 games, going 25W 8D 19L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-W. The sample for IFK Goteborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Vasteras SK FK sit at 1.92 PPG from 52 outings (30W 10D 12L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Vasteras SK FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: IFK Goteborg on 1.60 PPG, Vasteras SK FK on 1.92. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
IFK Goteborg's home form reads 12W 4D 10L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.54 PPG return.
Away from home, Vasteras SK FK have taken 1.81 points per game from 26 outings (15W 2D 9L).
Goals in Recent Form
IFK Goteborg are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Vasteras SK FK are on 1.85 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Defensively: Vasteras SK FK in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Goteborg
Blended
Vasteras SK FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Goteborg and Vasteras SK FK in coming into this match?
IFK Goteborg have gone 25W 8D 19L in their last 52 games (1.60 PPG), while Vasteras SK FK have gone 30W 10D 12L in their last 52 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Goteborg at home or Vasteras SK FK away?
Vasteras SK FK's away record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Goteborg at home: 1.54 PPG; Vasteras SK FK away: 1.81 PPG.
Have IFK Goteborg or Vasteras SK FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Goteborg have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Vasteras SK FK in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 9 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: IFK Goteborg have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
IFK Goteborg's record when hosting Vasteras SK FK specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
IFK Goteborg
2
Draws
0
Vasteras SK FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and Vasteras SK FK?
From 4 meetings on record, IFK Goteborg have won 2, Vasteras SK FK have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IFK Goteborg and Vasteras SK FK last play each other?
They last met on 9 October 2026, when IFK Goteborg 1-0 Vasteras SK FK.
Who has won more matches between IFK Goteborg and Vasteras SK FK?
IFK Goteborg have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Goteborg 54%, Vasteras SK FK 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (IFK Goteborg) and 73% (Vasteras SK FK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 15% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vasteras SK FK in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Goteborg home games / Vasteras SK FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Goteborg play Vasteras SK FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of IFK Goteborg's recent matches and 54% of Vasteras SK FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Goteborg vs Vasteras SK FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of IFK Goteborg's matches and 73% of Vasteras SK FK's.
Do IFK Goteborg and Vasteras SK FK tend to score early?
IFK Goteborg have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Vasteras SK FK in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as IFK Goteborg edge out Vasteras SK FK 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Goteborg beat Vasteras SK FK 1-0 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 23, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Goteborg 1.81 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.34 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. IFK Goteborg fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Vasteras SK FK landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Goteborg attack 0.98 / defence 0.96 against Vasteras SK FK attack 1.08 / defence 1.27, drawn from 52/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Goteborg 48% | Draw 24% | Vasteras SK FK 28%, with IFK Goteborg to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Goteborg 52%, Vasteras SK FK 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Goteborg 1.60 PPG, Vasteras SK FK 1.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Goteborg win broke the near-deadlock. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.77 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.