IFK Goteborg 1-1 IFK Norrkoping – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Norrkoping at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this IFK Goteborg vs IFK Norrkoping fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gamla Ullevi plays host to IFK Goteborg versus IFK Norrkoping in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Monday 1 May 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
IFK Goteborg (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
IFK Goteborg's home record at Gamla Ullevi: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
IFK Norrkoping's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W D L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, IFK Norrkoping have posted 1W 6D 3L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for IFK Goteborg against 1.30 for IFK Norrkoping. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: IFK Goteborg 3W, IFK Norrkoping 1W, 0D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Aug 2022, ended 2–0 with IFK Goteborg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
IFK Goteborg — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
IFK Norrkoping — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Goteborg 47% versus IFK Norrkoping 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Goteborg 50% | IFK Norrkoping 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Goteborg 1.05 xG and IFK Norrkoping 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Goteborg attack 0.707 / defence 1.018 | IFK Norrkoping attack 1.130 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.015. IFK Goteborg's attack strength of 0.707 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 34 IFK Goteborg games / 34 IFK Norrkoping games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 33% | Draw 29% | IFK Norrkoping 39%. Fair-value odds: IFK Goteborg 3.03 | Draw 3.45 | IFK Norrkoping 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates IFK Norrkoping as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IFK Norrkoping if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.21 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: IFK Goteborg 40% | IFK Norrkoping 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Goteborg vs IFK Norrkoping | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Monday 1 May 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 33% | Draw 29% | IFK Norrkoping 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG IFK Goteborg 1.05 / IFK Norrkoping 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Goteborg attack 0.707 / def 1.018 | IFK Norrkoping attack 1.130 / def 1.017 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.015 • Poisson stance: IFK Norrkoping (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
IFK Goteborg xG
Expected Goals
1.17
IFK Norrkoping xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Goteborg vs IFK Norrkoping kick off?
IFK Goteborg vs IFK Norrkoping kicked off at 14:00 on Monday 1 May 2023 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in IFK Goteborg vs IFK Norrkoping?
IFK Goteborg 1 - 1 IFK Norrkoping.
Where is IFK Goteborg vs IFK Norrkoping being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is IFK Goteborg vs IFK Norrkoping part of?
IFK Goteborg vs IFK Norrkoping is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Goteborg vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our statistical model gives IFK Goteborg a 33% chance of winning, IFK Norrkoping a 39% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making IFK Norrkoping the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Goteborg vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both IFK Goteborg and IFK Norrkoping will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Goteborg vs IFK Norrkoping have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and IFK Norrkoping?
Record (4 meetings): IFK Goteborg 3W | Draws 0 | IFK Norrkoping 1W.
What form are IFK Goteborg and IFK Norrkoping in?
IFK Goteborg (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. IFK Norrkoping (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates IFK Goteborg's attack at 0.71x the league average against IFK Norrkoping's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — IFK Norrkoping's attack (1.13x) against IFK Goteborg's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Norrkoping Win
33%
3.07
29%
3.46
39%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
IFK Goteborg xG
Total xG
2.21
1.17
IFK Norrkoping xG
3.07
33%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.60
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
10%
9.87
14%
7.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 12.7 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Goteborg vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are IFK Goteborg and IFK Norrkoping expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for IFK Goteborg and 1.17 for IFK Norrkoping, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Goteborg vs IFK Norrkoping?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 60 outings, IFK Goteborg have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 25W 11D 24L record — W-L-W-L-W across the most recent five.
IFK Norrkoping's form line: 21W 15D 24L from 60 games, 1.30 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for IFK Goteborg against 1.30 for IFK Norrkoping. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, IFK Goteborg have posted 1.50 PPG from 30 outings (13W 6D 11L).
On the road, IFK Norrkoping have gone 8W 7D 15L from 30 away games — 1.03 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IFK Goteborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
IFK Goteborg are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; IFK Norrkoping are on 1.42 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IFK Norrkoping in 60%.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Goteborg
Current Season
IFK Norrkoping
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Goteborg and IFK Norrkoping in coming into this match?
IFK Goteborg have gone 25W 11D 24L in their last 60 games (1.43 PPG), while IFK Norrkoping have gone 21W 15D 24L in their last 60 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Goteborg at home or IFK Norrkoping away?
IFK Goteborg's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Goteborg at home: 1.50 PPG; IFK Norrkoping away: 1.03 PPG.
Have IFK Goteborg or IFK Norrkoping been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Goteborg have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, IFK Norrkoping in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 9 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
IFK Goteborg go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IFK Norrkoping won 3-0 on 7 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IFK Goteborg have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against IFK Norrkoping — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
IFK Goteborg
2
Draws
2
IFK Norrkoping
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and IFK Norrkoping?
From 10 meetings on record, IFK Goteborg have won 6, IFK Norrkoping have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IFK Goteborg and IFK Norrkoping last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2025, when IFK Goteborg 2-0 IFK Norrkoping.
Who has won more matches between IFK Goteborg and IFK Norrkoping?
IFK Goteborg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
IFK Norrkoping are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Goteborg 47%, IFK Norrkoping 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (IFK Goteborg) and 50% (IFK Norrkoping).
On the defensive side: IFK Goteborg keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; IFK Norrkoping in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Goteborg home games / IFK Norrkoping away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Goteborg play IFK Norrkoping?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of IFK Goteborg's recent matches and 60% of IFK Norrkoping's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Goteborg vs IFK Norrkoping usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of IFK Goteborg's recent games and 50% of IFK Norrkoping's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Goteborg and IFK Norrkoping tend to score early?
IFK Goteborg have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, IFK Norrkoping in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IFK Goteborg and IFK Norrkoping share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 5, as IFK Goteborg and IFK Norrkoping drew 1-1 in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Goteborg 1.05 xG and IFK Norrkoping 1.17 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Goteborg attack 0.71 / defence 1.02 against IFK Norrkoping attack 1.13 / defence 1.02, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Goteborg 33% | Draw 29% | IFK Norrkoping 39%, with IFK Norrkoping to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Goteborg 50%, IFK Norrkoping 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Goteborg 1.43 PPG, IFK Norrkoping 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.