IFK Goteborg 0-1 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IF Elfsborg at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
IFK Goteborg and IF Elfsborg meet at Gamla Ullevi in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Monday 5 July 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
IFK Goteborg's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 3W 6D 1L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D D D D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for IFK Goteborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, IFK Goteborg have posted 3W 3D 4L at Gamla Ullevi — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
IF Elfsborg (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Elfsborg's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
IFK Goteborg half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
IF Elfsborg half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Goteborg 55% versus IF Elfsborg 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Goteborg 45% | IF Elfsborg 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Goteborg 1.30 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Goteborg attack 1.043 / defence 1.166 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.101 / defence 0.860. League average goals — home 1.448 / away 1.092. Data: 38 IFK Goteborg games / 39 IF Elfsborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 32% | Draw 31% | IF Elfsborg 37%. Fair-value odds: IFK Goteborg 3.12 | Draw 3.23 | IF Elfsborg 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IF Elfsborg at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IF Elfsborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: IFK Goteborg 50% | IF Elfsborg 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Monday 5 Jul 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 32% | Draw 31% | IF Elfsborg 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 58% | xG IFK Goteborg 1.30 / IF Elfsborg 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Goteborg attack 1.043 / def 1.166 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.101 / def 0.860 | league avg home 1.448 / away 1.092 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
IFK Goteborg xG
Expected Goals
1.40
IF Elfsborg xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 5 July 2021 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg?
IFK Goteborg 0 - 1 IF Elfsborg.
Where is IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg part of?
IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives IFK Goteborg a 32% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both IFK Goteborg and IF Elfsborg will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and IF Elfsborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IFK Goteborg and IF Elfsborg in?
IFK Goteborg (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-D-D-D. IF Elfsborg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
IFK Goteborg's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against IF Elfsborg's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. Flip it around — IF Elfsborg's attack (1.10x) against IFK Goteborg's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 38/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
32%
3.12
31%
3.20
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
IFK Goteborg xG
Total xG
2.70
1.40
IF Elfsborg xG
3.12
32%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
25%
4.07
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
8%
12.71
10%
9.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 9.4 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.2 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.9 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are IFK Goteborg and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for IFK Goteborg and 1.40 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
IFK Goteborg's recent record stands at 8W 19D 11L from 38 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with D-D-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for IFK Goteborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IF Elfsborg, meanwhile, have gone 15W 16D 7L across 38 games — 1.61 PPG, with D-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours IF Elfsborg by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over IFK Goteborg heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, IFK Goteborg have managed 4W 7D 7L from 18 games — 1.06 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IF Elfsborg's away record stands at 7W 7D 4L across 18 trips, a 1.56 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Elfsborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
IFK Goteborg are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 1.58 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IF Elfsborg in 63%.
Last 38 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Goteborg
Blended
IF Elfsborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Goteborg and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
IFK Goteborg have gone 8W 19D 11L in their last 38 games (1.13 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 15W 16D 7L in their last 38 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Goteborg at home or IF Elfsborg away?
IF Elfsborg's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Goteborg at home: 1.06 PPG; IF Elfsborg away: 1.56 PPG.
Have IFK Goteborg or IF Elfsborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Goteborg have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, IF Elfsborg in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
IF Elfsborg have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IFK Goteborg have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against IF Elfsborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
IFK Goteborg
1
Draws
8
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and IF Elfsborg?
From 10 meetings on record, IFK Goteborg have won 1, IF Elfsborg have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IFK Goteborg and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when IF Elfsborg 2-0 IFK Goteborg.
Who has won more matches between IFK Goteborg and IF Elfsborg?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Goteborg 61%, IF Elfsborg 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (IFK Goteborg) and 50% (IF Elfsborg).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Goteborg home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Goteborg play IF Elfsborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of IFK Goteborg's games and 61% of IF Elfsborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of IFK Goteborg's recent games and 50% of IF Elfsborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Goteborg and IF Elfsborg tend to score early?
IFK Goteborg have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, IF Elfsborg in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as IF Elfsborg edge out IFK Goteborg 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg beat IFK Goteborg 0-1 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 9, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Goteborg 1.30 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.40 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. IFK Goteborg fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Goteborg attack 1.04 / defence 1.17 against IF Elfsborg attack 1.10 / defence 0.86, drawn from 38/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Goteborg 32% | Draw 31% | IF Elfsborg 37%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Goteborg 45%, IF Elfsborg 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Elfsborg arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.13. Form held, and they took the win. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.