IFK Goteborg 1-0 AIK Stockholm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AIK Stockholm at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this IFK Goteborg vs AIK Stockholm fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
IFK Goteborg host AIK Stockholm at Gamla Ullevi in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 2 July 2020 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, IFK Goteborg have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 outings — a 1.25 PPG return. Last five: L W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. IFK Goteborg have played only a handful of Allsvenskan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
AIK Stockholm — All Games: 2W 1D 1L from 4 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.75 PPG. Last five: W L W D. They are scoring at 1.75 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. AIK Stockholm have played only a handful of Allsvenskan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form points away from home here. AIK Stockholm's 1.75 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of IFK Goteborg's 1.25 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
IFK Goteborg trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
AIK Stockholm trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — IFK Goteborg 75% and AIK Stockholm 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Goteborg 75% | AIK Stockholm 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Goteborg 0.84 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Goteborg attack 0.934 / defence 1.237 | AIK Stockholm attack 1.014 / defence 0.895. League average goals — home 1.001 / away 1.424. Data: 4 IFK Goteborg games / 4 AIK Stockholm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 15% | Draw 28% | AIK Stockholm 57%. Fair-value odds: IFK Goteborg 6.67 | Draw 3.57 | AIK Stockholm 1.75. The model has a clear lean to AIK Stockholm (57%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AIK Stockholm as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: IFK Goteborg 75% | AIK Stockholm 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Goteborg vs AIK Stockholm | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Thursday 2 Jul 2020, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 15% | Draw 28% | AIK Stockholm 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 50% | xG IFK Goteborg 0.84 / AIK Stockholm 1.79 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Goteborg attack 0.934 / def 1.237 | AIK Stockholm attack 1.014 / def 0.895 | league avg home 1.001 / away 1.424 • Poisson stance: AIK Stockholm (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
IFK Goteborg xG
Expected Goals
1.79
AIK Stockholm xG
50%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Goteborg vs AIK Stockholm kick off?
IFK Goteborg vs AIK Stockholm kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 2 July 2020 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in IFK Goteborg vs AIK Stockholm?
IFK Goteborg 1 - 0 AIK Stockholm.
Where is IFK Goteborg vs AIK Stockholm being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is IFK Goteborg vs AIK Stockholm part of?
IFK Goteborg vs AIK Stockholm is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Goteborg vs AIK Stockholm?
Our statistical model gives IFK Goteborg a 15% chance of winning, AIK Stockholm a 57% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making AIK Stockholm the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Goteborg vs AIK Stockholm?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both IFK Goteborg and AIK Stockholm will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Goteborg vs AIK Stockholm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and AIK Stockholm?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IFK Goteborg and AIK Stockholm in?
IFK Goteborg (all comps): 1W-2D-1L in 4 | 1.25 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-D. AIK Stockholm (all comps): 2W-1D-1L in 4 | 1.75 PPG | GF 1.75 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
IFK Goteborg's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against AIK Stockholm's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.84. The same calculation in reverse, AIK Stockholm's attack versus IFK Goteborg's defence, projects 1.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 0-2 (11.6%), 0-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AIK Stockholm Win
15%
6.78
28%
3.58
57%
1.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.6%
Away win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
IFK Goteborg xG
Total xG
2.62
1.79
AIK Stockholm xG
6.78
15%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
1.74
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
17%
5.97
43%
2.31
Win to Nil
2%
40.47
25%
4.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 13.0 | 11.6 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.9 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Goteborg vs AIK Stockholm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are IFK Goteborg and AIK Stockholm expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for IFK Goteborg and 1.79 for AIK Stockholm, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Goteborg vs AIK Stockholm?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
IFK Goteborg come into this having played 4 games, going 1W 2D 1L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D. It's still early in the season for IFK Goteborg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, AIK Stockholm sit at 1.75 PPG from 4 outings (2W 1D 1L), a run that reads W-L-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for AIK Stockholm, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
AIK Stockholm carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of IFK Goteborg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
IFK Goteborg are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; AIK Stockholm are on 1.75 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IFK Goteborg have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Defensively: AIK Stockholm in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Goteborg
Early Season
AIK Stockholm
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Goteborg and AIK Stockholm in coming into this match?
IFK Goteborg have gone 1W 2D 1L in their last 4 games (1.25 PPG), while AIK Stockholm have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 (1.75 PPG).
Have IFK Goteborg or AIK Stockholm been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Goteborg have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, AIK Stockholm in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 5 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 May 2024, when AIK Stockholm won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IFK Goteborg's record when hosting AIK Stockholm specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
IFK Goteborg
2
Draws
6
AIK Stockholm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and AIK Stockholm?
From 10 meetings on record, IFK Goteborg have won 2, AIK Stockholm have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IFK Goteborg and AIK Stockholm last play each other?
They last met on 5 July 2026, when IFK Goteborg 1-2 AIK Stockholm.
Who has won more matches between IFK Goteborg and AIK Stockholm?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
AIK Stockholm see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Goteborg 75%, AIK Stockholm 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for IFK Goteborg and 50% for AIK Stockholm. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AIK Stockholm in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Goteborg home games / AIK Stockholm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Goteborg play AIK Stockholm?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of IFK Goteborg's games and 50% of AIK Stockholm's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IFK Goteborg vs AIK Stockholm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of IFK Goteborg's matches and 50% of AIK Stockholm's.
Do IFK Goteborg and AIK Stockholm tend to score early?
IFK Goteborg have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, AIK Stockholm in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as IFK Goteborg defy the odds to beat AIK Stockholm 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Goteborg beat AIK Stockholm 1-0 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 5, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Goteborg 0.84 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.79 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. AIK Stockholm landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Goteborg attack 0.93 / defence 1.24 against AIK Stockholm attack 1.01 / defence 0.90, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Goteborg 15% | Draw 28% | AIK Stockholm 57%, with AIK Stockholm to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a IFK Goteborg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Goteborg 75%, AIK Stockholm 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, AIK Stockholm arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.25. Form was overturned, with IFK Goteborg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. IFK Goteborg conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. AIK Stockholm managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.