IF Elfsborg 0-3 Kalmar FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IF Elfsborg at 68% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Borås Arena plays host to IF Elfsborg versus Kalmar FF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Sunday 17 September 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
IF Elfsborg have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Elfsborg's home record at Borås Arena: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Borås Arena. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — IF Elfsborg are significantly better at Borås Arena than their overall form suggests.
Kalmar FF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Kalmar FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kalmar FF's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in IF Elfsborg's favour (1.90 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — IF Elfsborg lead 3W to 2W over the last 6 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Jul 2023, ended 4–0 with IF Elfsborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
IF Elfsborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Kalmar FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Elfsborg 50% versus Kalmar FF 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Elfsborg 52% | Kalmar FF 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Elfsborg 2.17 xG and Kalmar FF 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Elfsborg attack 1.303 / defence 0.727 | Kalmar FF attack 0.903 / defence 1.094. League average goals — home 1.524 / away 1.261. IF Elfsborg carry an above-average attack strength of 1.303 — their λ of 2.17 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. IF Elfsborg's defence rating of 0.727 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 52 IF Elfsborg games / 52 Kalmar FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 68% | Draw 19% | Kalmar FF 13%. Fair-value odds: IF Elfsborg 1.47 | Draw 5.26 | Kalmar FF 7.69. The model has a clear lean to IF Elfsborg (68%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates IF Elfsborg as the most likely outcome at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: IF Elfsborg 40% | Kalmar FF 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Sep 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 68% | Draw 19% | Kalmar FF 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 50% | xG IF Elfsborg 2.17 / Kalmar FF 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: IF Elfsborg attack 1.303 / def 0.727 | Kalmar FF attack 0.903 / def 1.094 | league avg home 1.524 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
IF Elfsborg xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Kalmar FF xG
50%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF kick off?
IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 17 September 2023 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF?
IF Elfsborg 0 - 3 Kalmar FF.
Where is IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF part of?
IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF?
Our statistical model gives IF Elfsborg a 68% chance of winning, Kalmar FF a 13% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both IF Elfsborg and Kalmar FF will score (BTTS).
Will IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Kalmar FF?
Record (6 meetings): IF Elfsborg 3W | Draws 1 | Kalmar FF 2W.
What form are IF Elfsborg and Kalmar FF in?
IF Elfsborg (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Kalmar FF (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
IF Elfsborg's attacking strength (1.30x league average) is weighed against Kalmar FF's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.17. Flip it around — Kalmar FF's attack (0.90x) against IF Elfsborg's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
68%
1.47
19%
5.31
13%
7.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
IF Elfsborg xG
Total xG
3.00
0.83
Kalmar FF xG
1.47
68%
Home win
5.31
19%
Draw
7.71
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
11%
8.79
Win to Nil
30%
3.35
1%
67.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.8 | 8.9 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 9.7 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.5 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are IF Elfsborg and Kalmar FF expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 0.83 for Kalmar FF, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 52 outings, IF Elfsborg have picked up 1.87 PPG on a 28W 13D 11L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kalmar FF's form line: 23W 12D 17L from 52 games, 1.56 PPG, last five D-L-D-W-L. The sample for Kalmar FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.87 PPG for IF Elfsborg against 1.56 for Kalmar FF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, IF Elfsborg have posted 2.12 PPG from 26 outings (16W 7D 3L).
On the road, Kalmar FF have gone 8W 7D 11L from 26 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Elfsborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
IF Elfsborg are averaging 1.94 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Kalmar FF are on 1.25 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Kalmar FF in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Elfsborg
Blended
Kalmar FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Elfsborg and Kalmar FF in coming into this match?
IF Elfsborg have gone 28W 13D 11L in their last 52 games (1.87 PPG), while Kalmar FF have gone 23W 12D 17L in their last 52 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Elfsborg at home or Kalmar FF away?
IF Elfsborg's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Elfsborg at home: 2.12 PPG; Kalmar FF away: 1.19 PPG.
Have IF Elfsborg or Kalmar FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Kalmar FF in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IF Elfsborg won 0-4 on 9 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IF Elfsborg have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Kalmar FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
IF Elfsborg
1
Draws
5
Kalmar FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Kalmar FF?
From 10 meetings on record, IF Elfsborg have won 4, Kalmar FF have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IF Elfsborg and Kalmar FF last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when Kalmar FF 2-1 IF Elfsborg.
Who has won more matches between IF Elfsborg and Kalmar FF?
Kalmar FF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Elfsborg 54%, Kalmar FF 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (IF Elfsborg) and 50% (Kalmar FF).
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Kalmar FF in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Elfsborg home games / Kalmar FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Elfsborg play Kalmar FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of IF Elfsborg's games and 58% of Kalmar FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of IF Elfsborg's recent games and 50% of Kalmar FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IF Elfsborg and Kalmar FF tend to score early?
IF Elfsborg have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Kalmar FF in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Kalmar FF run riot with a 0-3 hammering of IF Elfsborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kalmar FF beat IF Elfsborg 0-3 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 2.17 xG and Kalmar FF 0.83 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. IF Elfsborg fell 2.2 short of their projected output. Kalmar FF outscored their 0.83 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.30 / defence 0.73 against Kalmar FF attack 0.90 / defence 1.09, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 68% | Draw 19% | Kalmar FF 13%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a Kalmar FF win, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 52%, Kalmar FF 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Kalmar FF's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IF Elfsborg 1.87 PPG, Kalmar FF 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kalmar FF win broke the near-deadlock. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.27 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.