IF Elfsborg 3-1 IFK Goteborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IF Elfsborg at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Borås Arena plays host to IF Elfsborg versus IFK Goteborg in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Sunday 22 May 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
IF Elfsborg (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
IF Elfsborg at Borås Arena this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Borås Arena.
IFK Goteborg have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, IFK Goteborg have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.90 for IF Elfsborg, 1.90 for IFK Goteborg — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: IF Elfsborg 1W, IFK Goteborg 0W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2021, ended 1–0 with IF Elfsborg winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
IF Elfsborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
IFK Goteborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Elfsborg 55% versus IFK Goteborg 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Elfsborg 57% | IFK Goteborg 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Elfsborg 1.09 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Elfsborg attack 1.063 / defence 1.001 | IFK Goteborg attack 0.933 / defence 0.731. League average goals — home 1.410 / away 1.097. IFK Goteborg's defence strength of 0.731 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 38 IF Elfsborg games / 38 IFK Goteborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 37% | Draw 30% | IFK Goteborg 33%. Fair-value odds: IF Elfsborg 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | IFK Goteborg 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates IF Elfsborg as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IF Elfsborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.12 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: IF Elfsborg 40% | IFK Goteborg 60%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 22 May 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 37% | Draw 30% | IFK Goteborg 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG IF Elfsborg 1.09 / IFK Goteborg 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: IF Elfsborg attack 1.063 / def 1.001 | IFK Goteborg attack 0.933 / def 0.731 | league avg home 1.410 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
IF Elfsborg xG
Expected Goals
1.02
IFK Goteborg xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg kick off?
IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 22 May 2022 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg?
IF Elfsborg 3 - 1 IFK Goteborg.
Where is IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg part of?
IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg?
Our statistical model gives IF Elfsborg a 37% chance of winning, IFK Goteborg a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both IF Elfsborg and IFK Goteborg will score (BTTS).
Will IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and IFK Goteborg?
Record (1 meetings): IF Elfsborg 1W | Draws 0 | IFK Goteborg 0W.
What form are IF Elfsborg and IFK Goteborg in?
IF Elfsborg (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. IFK Goteborg (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates IF Elfsborg's attack at 1.06x the league average against IFK Goteborg's defence at 0.73x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — IFK Goteborg's attack (0.93x) against IF Elfsborg's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
37%
2.71
30%
3.36
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
IF Elfsborg xG
Total xG
2.12
1.02
IFK Goteborg xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
13%
7.55
11%
8.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 12.3 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are IF Elfsborg and IFK Goteborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 1.02 for IFK Goteborg, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, IF Elfsborg have picked up 1.77 PPG on a 29W 19D 12L record — L-D-W-L-W across the most recent five.
IFK Goteborg's form line: 18W 21D 21L from 60 games, 1.25 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-W.
Put side by side, IF Elfsborg are the form team by 0.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against IFK Goteborg.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, IF Elfsborg have posted 1.77 PPG from 30 outings (14W 11D 5L).
On the road, IFK Goteborg have gone 9W 13D 8L from 30 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Elfsborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
IF Elfsborg are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; IFK Goteborg are on 1.28 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Elfsborg
Current Season
IFK Goteborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Elfsborg and IFK Goteborg in coming into this match?
IF Elfsborg have gone 29W 19D 12L in their last 60 games (1.77 PPG), while IFK Goteborg have gone 18W 21D 21L in their last 60 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Elfsborg at home or IFK Goteborg away?
IF Elfsborg's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Elfsborg at home: 1.77 PPG; IFK Goteborg away: 1.33 PPG.
Have IF Elfsborg or IFK Goteborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, IFK Goteborg in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
IF Elfsborg go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IF Elfsborg have gone 5W 1D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against IFK Goteborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
IF Elfsborg
1
Draws
1
IFK Goteborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and IFK Goteborg?
From 10 meetings on record, IF Elfsborg have won 8, IFK Goteborg have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IF Elfsborg and IFK Goteborg last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when IF Elfsborg 2-0 IFK Goteborg.
Who has won more matches between IF Elfsborg and IFK Goteborg?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Elfsborg 57%, IFK Goteborg 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (IF Elfsborg) and 50% (IFK Goteborg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; IFK Goteborg in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Elfsborg home games / IFK Goteborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Elfsborg play IFK Goteborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of IF Elfsborg's games and 57% of IFK Goteborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of IF Elfsborg's matches and 50% of IFK Goteborg's.
Do IF Elfsborg and IFK Goteborg tend to score early?
IF Elfsborg have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, IFK Goteborg in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IF Elfsborg cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over IFK Goteborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg beat IFK Goteborg 3-1 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 1.09 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.02 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. IF Elfsborg beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.06 / defence 1.00 against IFK Goteborg attack 0.93 / defence 0.73, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 37% | Draw 30% | IFK Goteborg 33%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 57%, IFK Goteborg 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Elfsborg arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.25. That form edge translated into the three points. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.77 average — above their attacking norm. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.