IF Elfsborg 0-2 Djurgardens IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IF Elfsborg at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
IF Elfsborg and Djurgardens IF meet at Borås Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 11 April 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
IF Elfsborg have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: W W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
IF Elfsborg's home record at Borås Arena: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Djurgardens IF (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L L W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Djurgardens IF's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — IF Elfsborg have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Djurgardens IF in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
IF Elfsborg half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Djurgardens IF half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — IF Elfsborg 67% and Djurgardens IF 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Elfsborg 53% | Djurgardens IF 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Elfsborg 1.46 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Elfsborg attack 1.080 / defence 1.020 | Djurgardens IF attack 1.064 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.193. Data: 30 IF Elfsborg games / 30 Djurgardens IF games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 39% | Draw 29% | Djurgardens IF 32%. Fair-value odds: IF Elfsborg 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Djurgardens IF 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, IF Elfsborg are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IF Elfsborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: IF Elfsborg 80% | Djurgardens IF 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Apr 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 39% | Draw 29% | Djurgardens IF 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG IF Elfsborg 1.46 / Djurgardens IF 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: IF Elfsborg attack 1.080 / def 1.020 | Djurgardens IF attack 1.064 / def 0.970 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
IF Elfsborg xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Djurgardens IF xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF kick off?
IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 11 April 2021 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF?
IF Elfsborg 0 - 2 Djurgardens IF.
Where is IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF part of?
IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF?
Our statistical model gives IF Elfsborg a 39% chance of winning, Djurgardens IF a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both IF Elfsborg and Djurgardens IF will score (BTTS).
Will IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Djurgardens IF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IF Elfsborg and Djurgardens IF in?
IF Elfsborg (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. Djurgardens IF (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
IF Elfsborg's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Djurgardens IF's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. Flip it around — Djurgardens IF's attack (1.06x) against IF Elfsborg's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
39%
2.54
29%
3.50
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
IF Elfsborg xG
Total xG
2.75
1.29
Djurgardens IF xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
23%
4.29
Win to Nil
11%
9.27
7%
13.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.3 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.0 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are IF Elfsborg and Djurgardens IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 1.29 for Djurgardens IF, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
IF Elfsborg come into this having played 30 games, going 12W 15D 3L for 1.70 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-D.
On the other side, Djurgardens IF sit at 1.60 PPG from 30 outings (14W 6D 10L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.70 PPG for IF Elfsborg against 1.60 for Djurgardens IF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
IF Elfsborg's home form reads 6W 8D 1L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.73 PPG return.
Away from home, Djurgardens IF have taken 1.53 points per game from 15 outings (7W 2D 6L).
Attack vs Defence
IF Elfsborg are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Djurgardens IF are on 1.60 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IF Elfsborg have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Elfsborg
Current Season
Djurgardens IF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Elfsborg and Djurgardens IF in coming into this match?
IF Elfsborg have gone 12W 15D 3L in their last 30 games (1.70 PPG), while Djurgardens IF have gone 14W 6D 10L in their last 30 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Elfsborg at home or Djurgardens IF away?
IF Elfsborg's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Elfsborg at home: 1.73 PPG; Djurgardens IF away: 1.53 PPG.
Have IF Elfsborg or Djurgardens IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Djurgardens IF in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 22 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IF Elfsborg won 0-4 on 22 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IF Elfsborg have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Djurgardens IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
IF Elfsborg
2
Draws
4
Djurgardens IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Djurgardens IF?
From 10 meetings on record, IF Elfsborg have won 4, Djurgardens IF have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IF Elfsborg and Djurgardens IF last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2026, when IF Elfsborg 2-1 Djurgardens IF.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Elfsborg 73%, Djurgardens IF 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (IF Elfsborg) and 53% (Djurgardens IF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 13% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Elfsborg home games / Djurgardens IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Elfsborg play Djurgardens IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of IF Elfsborg's games and 47% of Djurgardens IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of IF Elfsborg's matches and 53% of Djurgardens IF's.
Do IF Elfsborg and Djurgardens IF tend to score early?
IF Elfsborg have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Djurgardens IF in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Djurgardens IF cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over IF Elfsborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF beat IF Elfsborg 0-2 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 1.46 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.29 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. IF Elfsborg fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.08 / defence 1.02 against Djurgardens IF attack 1.06 / defence 0.97, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 39% | Draw 29% | Djurgardens IF 32%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Djurgardens IF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 53%, Djurgardens IF 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IF Elfsborg 1.70 PPG, Djurgardens IF 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Djurgardens IF win broke the near-deadlock. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.