IF Brommapojkarna 0-3 IFK Goteborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IF Brommapojkarna at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this IF Brommapojkarna vs IFK Goteborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees IFK Goteborg travel to Grimsta IP to take on IF Brommapojkarna. The game is scheduled for Monday 29 April 2024, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
IF Brommapojkarna — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
IF Brommapojkarna's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Grimsta IP this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, IFK Goteborg stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
IFK Goteborg away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: IF Brommapojkarna 1.10 PPG, IFK Goteborg 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. IF Brommapojkarna register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, IFK Goteborg in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for IF Brommapojkarna, 1 for IFK Goteborg and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2023, ended 0–1 with IFK Goteborg winning.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
IF Brommapojkarna in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
IFK Goteborg in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Brommapojkarna 62% versus IFK Goteborg 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Brommapojkarna 67% | IFK Goteborg 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Brommapojkarna 1.15 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.952 / defence 1.089 | IFK Goteborg attack 0.799 / defence 0.837. League average goals — home 1.439 / away 1.319. Data: 35 IF Brommapojkarna games / 35 IFK Goteborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 36% | Draw 28% | IFK Goteborg 36%. Fair-value odds: IF Brommapojkarna 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | IFK Goteborg 2.78. The draw (28%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 28% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. This conflicts with form data: IF Brommapojkarna 60% | IFK Goteborg 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Brommapojkarna vs IFK Goteborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Grimsta IP • Kick-off: Monday 29 Apr 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 36% | Draw 28% | IFK Goteborg 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG IF Brommapojkarna 1.15 / IFK Goteborg 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.952 / def 1.089 | IFK Goteborg attack 0.799 / def 0.837 | league avg home 1.439 / away 1.319 • Poisson stance: Draw (28%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Expected Goals
1.15
IFK Goteborg xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Brommapojkarna vs IFK Goteborg kick off?
IF Brommapojkarna vs IFK Goteborg kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 29 April 2024 at Grimsta IP.
What was the final score in IF Brommapojkarna vs IFK Goteborg?
IF Brommapojkarna 0 - 3 IFK Goteborg.
Where is IF Brommapojkarna vs IFK Goteborg being played?
The match is being played at Grimsta IP.
What competition is IF Brommapojkarna vs IFK Goteborg part of?
IF Brommapojkarna vs IFK Goteborg is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Brommapojkarna vs IFK Goteborg?
Our statistical model gives IF Brommapojkarna a 36% chance of winning, IFK Goteborg a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in IF Brommapojkarna vs IFK Goteborg?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both IF Brommapojkarna and IFK Goteborg will score (BTTS).
Will IF Brommapojkarna vs IFK Goteborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Brommapojkarna and IFK Goteborg?
Record (2 meetings): IF Brommapojkarna 0W | Draws 1 | IFK Goteborg 1W.
What form are IF Brommapojkarna and IFK Goteborg in?
IF Brommapojkarna (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. IFK Goteborg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from IF Brommapojkarna's attack rating (0.95) and IFK Goteborg's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, IFK Goteborg's attack versus IF Brommapojkarna's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 0-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Brommapojkarna Win
36%
2.79
28%
3.52
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Total xG
2.30
1.15
IFK Goteborg xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
11%
8.80
11%
8.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 11.6 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.3 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Brommapojkarna vs IFK Goteborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are IF Brommapojkarna and IFK Goteborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for IF Brommapojkarna and 1.15 for IFK Goteborg, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Brommapojkarna vs IFK Goteborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
IF Brommapojkarna come into this having played 60 games, going 29W 9D 22L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-D.
On the other side, IFK Goteborg sit at 1.32 PPG from 60 outings (22W 13D 25L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: IF Brommapojkarna on 1.60 PPG, IFK Goteborg on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
IF Brommapojkarna's home form reads 16W 5D 9L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.77 PPG return.
Away from home, IFK Goteborg have taken 1.20 points per game from 30 outings (10W 6D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Brommapojkarna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
IF Brommapojkarna are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; IFK Goteborg are on 1.25 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IF Brommapojkarna have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Brommapojkarna
Current Season
IFK Goteborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Brommapojkarna and IFK Goteborg in coming into this match?
IF Brommapojkarna have gone 29W 9D 22L in their last 60 games (1.60 PPG), while IFK Goteborg have gone 22W 13D 25L in their last 60 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Brommapojkarna at home or IFK Goteborg away?
IF Brommapojkarna's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Brommapojkarna at home: 1.77 PPG; IFK Goteborg away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 17 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Apr 2024, when IFK Goteborg won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IF Brommapojkarna's record when hosting IFK Goteborg specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
IF Brommapojkarna
1
Draws
4
IFK Goteborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Brommapojkarna and IFK Goteborg?
From 7 meetings on record, IF Brommapojkarna have won 2, IFK Goteborg have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IF Brommapojkarna and IFK Goteborg last play each other?
They last met on 17 July 2026, when IFK Goteborg 2-1 IF Brommapojkarna.
Who has won more matches between IF Brommapojkarna and IFK Goteborg?
IFK Goteborg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
IF Brommapojkarna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Brommapojkarna 63%, IFK Goteborg 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for IF Brommapojkarna and 53% for IFK Goteborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IFK Goteborg in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Brommapojkarna home games / IFK Goteborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Brommapojkarna play IFK Goteborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of IF Brommapojkarna's games and 47% of IFK Goteborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IF Brommapojkarna vs IFK Goteborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of IF Brommapojkarna's matches and 53% of IFK Goteborg's.
Do IF Brommapojkarna and IFK Goteborg tend to score early?
IF Brommapojkarna have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, IFK Goteborg in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant IFK Goteborg run riot with a 0-3 hammering of IF Brommapojkarna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Goteborg beat IF Brommapojkarna 0-3 at Grimsta IP, Regular Season - 6, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Brommapojkarna 1.15 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.15 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. IF Brommapojkarna fell 1.1 short of their projected output. IFK Goteborg outscored their 1.15 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.95 / defence 1.09 against IFK Goteborg attack 0.80 / defence 0.84, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Brommapojkarna 36% | Draw 28% | IFK Goteborg 36%, with IF Brommapojkarna to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual IFK Goteborg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Brommapojkarna 67%, IFK Goteborg 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IF Brommapojkarna 1.60 PPG, IFK Goteborg 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Goteborg win broke the near-deadlock. IF Brommapojkarna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.