Helsingborg 0-1 IFK Norrkoping – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Helsingborg at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Helsingborg vs IFK Norrkoping fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Helsingborg host IFK Norrkoping at Olympia in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 9 May 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Helsingborg — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Helsingborg have played only a handful of Allsvenskan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Helsingborg have posted 2W 3D 5L at Olympia — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, IFK Norrkoping stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, IFK Norrkoping have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Helsingborg) versus 1.10 (IFK Norrkoping). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Helsingborg, 0 for IFK Norrkoping and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 6.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2020, ended 4–3 with Helsingborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Helsingborg trading profile (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 41% of games.
IFK Norrkoping trading profile (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helsingborg 56% versus IFK Norrkoping 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helsingborg 50% | IFK Norrkoping 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helsingborg 1.01 xG and IFK Norrkoping 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helsingborg attack 0.769 / defence 0.927 | IFK Norrkoping attack 1.048 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.018. Helsingborg's attack strength of 0.769 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 7 Helsingborg games / 36 IFK Norrkoping games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Helsingborg 35% | Draw 31% | IFK Norrkoping 34%. Fair-value odds: Helsingborg 2.86 | Draw 3.23 | IFK Norrkoping 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Helsingborg are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Helsingborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.00 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates are neutral: Helsingborg 40% | IFK Norrkoping 70%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helsingborg vs IFK Norrkoping | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Olympia • Kick-off: Monday 9 May 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helsingborg 35% | Draw 31% | IFK Norrkoping 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Helsingborg 1.01 / IFK Norrkoping 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Helsingborg attack 0.769 / def 0.927 | IFK Norrkoping attack 1.048 / def 1.005 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.018 • Poisson stance: Helsingborg (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Helsingborg xG
Expected Goals
0.99
IFK Norrkoping xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helsingborg vs IFK Norrkoping kick off?
Helsingborg vs IFK Norrkoping kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 9 May 2022 at Olympia.
What was the final score in Helsingborg vs IFK Norrkoping?
Helsingborg 0 - 1 IFK Norrkoping.
Where is Helsingborg vs IFK Norrkoping being played?
The match is being played at Olympia.
What competition is Helsingborg vs IFK Norrkoping part of?
Helsingborg vs IFK Norrkoping is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Helsingborg vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our statistical model gives Helsingborg a 35% chance of winning, IFK Norrkoping a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Helsingborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helsingborg vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Helsingborg and IFK Norrkoping will score (BTTS).
Will Helsingborg vs IFK Norrkoping have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and IFK Norrkoping?
Record (2 meetings): Helsingborg 2W | Draws 0 | IFK Norrkoping 0W.
What form are Helsingborg and IFK Norrkoping in?
Helsingborg (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. IFK Norrkoping (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Helsingborg's attack at 0.77x the league average against IFK Norrkoping's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, IFK Norrkoping's attack versus Helsingborg's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Helsingborg Win
35%
2.85
31%
3.24
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Helsingborg xG
Total xG
2.00
0.99
IFK Norrkoping xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
36%
2.74
Win to Nil
13%
7.68
12%
8.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 13.4 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helsingborg vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Helsingborg and IFK Norrkoping expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Helsingborg and 0.99 for IFK Norrkoping, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Helsingborg vs IFK Norrkoping?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Helsingborg's recent record stands at 6W 11D 15L from 32 games, a 0.91 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Helsingborg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
IFK Norrkoping, meanwhile, have gone 14W 5D 13L across 32 games — 1.47 PPG, with W-L-D-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours IFK Norrkoping by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Helsingborg heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Helsingborg have managed 3W 6D 7L from 16 games — 0.94 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IFK Norrkoping's away record stands at 6W 1D 9L across 16 trips, a 1.19 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Helsingborg are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; IFK Norrkoping are on 1.53 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IFK Norrkoping in 62%.
Last 32 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helsingborg
Early Season
IFK Norrkoping
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helsingborg and IFK Norrkoping in coming into this match?
Helsingborg have gone 6W 11D 15L in their last 32 games (0.91 PPG), while IFK Norrkoping have gone 14W 5D 13L in their last 32 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helsingborg at home or IFK Norrkoping away?
IFK Norrkoping's away record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helsingborg at home: 0.94 PPG; IFK Norrkoping away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2020. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
IFK Norrkoping go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Helsingborg's record when hosting IFK Norrkoping specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Helsingborg
0
Draws
4
IFK Norrkoping
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and IFK Norrkoping?
From 6 meetings on record, Helsingborg have won 2, IFK Norrkoping have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Helsingborg and IFK Norrkoping last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when IFK Norrkoping 2-0 Helsingborg.
Who has won more matches between Helsingborg and IFK Norrkoping?
IFK Norrkoping have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Helsingborg see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
IFK Norrkoping are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helsingborg 38%, IFK Norrkoping 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Helsingborg) and 56% (IFK Norrkoping).
On the defensive side: Helsingborg have failed to score in 56% of games; IFK Norrkoping in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helsingborg home games / IFK Norrkoping away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helsingborg play IFK Norrkoping?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Helsingborg's recent matches and 50% of IFK Norrkoping's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Helsingborg vs IFK Norrkoping usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Helsingborg's recent games and 56% of IFK Norrkoping's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Helsingborg and IFK Norrkoping tend to score early?
Helsingborg have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, IFK Norrkoping in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as IFK Norrkoping defy the odds to beat Helsingborg 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Norrkoping beat Helsingborg 0-1 at Olympia, Regular Season - 7, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helsingborg 1.01 xG and IFK Norrkoping 0.99 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Helsingborg fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helsingborg attack 0.77 / defence 0.93 against IFK Norrkoping attack 1.05 / defence 1.00, drawn from 7/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helsingborg 35% | Draw 31% | IFK Norrkoping 34%, with Helsingborg to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual IFK Norrkoping win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helsingborg 50%, IFK Norrkoping 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helsingborg's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, IFK Norrkoping arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.91. That form edge translated into the three points. IFK Norrkoping (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.