Helsingborg 1-0 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Helsingborg at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Olympia plays host to Helsingborg versus GIF Sundsvall in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Sunday 24 July 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Helsingborg (all games): 0W 3D 7L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Helsingborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Helsingborg at Olympia this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
GIF Sundsvall's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIF Sundsvall's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.30 for Helsingborg, 0.70 for GIF Sundsvall — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Helsingborg, 1 for GIF Sundsvall and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2021, ended 1–2 with GIF Sundsvall winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Helsingborg half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
GIF Sundsvall half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helsingborg 48% versus GIF Sundsvall 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helsingborg 50% | GIF Sundsvall 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helsingborg 1.28 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helsingborg attack 0.606 / defence 1.289 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.780 / defence 1.429. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.062. Helsingborg's attack strength of 0.606 is below the league average — the 1.28 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. GIF Sundsvall bring a strong defensive rating of 1.429 — this is suppressing Helsingborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Helsingborg games / 14 GIF Sundsvall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Helsingborg 40% | Draw 30% | GIF Sundsvall 30%. Fair-value odds: Helsingborg 2.50 | Draw 3.33 | GIF Sundsvall 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Helsingborg at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Helsingborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Helsingborg 50% | GIF Sundsvall 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Olympia • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Jul 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helsingborg 40% | Draw 30% | GIF Sundsvall 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Helsingborg 1.28 / GIF Sundsvall 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Helsingborg attack 0.606 / def 1.289 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.780 / def 1.429 | league avg home 1.481 / away 1.062 • Poisson stance: Helsingborg (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Helsingborg xG
Expected Goals
1.07
GIF Sundsvall xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 24 July 2022 at Olympia.
What was the final score in Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall?
Helsingborg 1 - 0 GIF Sundsvall.
Where is Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall being played?
The match is being played at Olympia.
What competition is Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives Helsingborg a 40% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Helsingborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Helsingborg and GIF Sundsvall will score (BTTS).
Will Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and GIF Sundsvall?
Record (1 meetings): Helsingborg 0W | Draws 0 | GIF Sundsvall 1W.
What form are Helsingborg and GIF Sundsvall in?
Helsingborg (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Helsingborg's attack rating (0.61) and GIF Sundsvall's defence rating (1.43), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — GIF Sundsvall's attack (0.78x) against Helsingborg's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 15/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Helsingborg Win
40%
2.49
30%
3.32
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Helsingborg xG
Total xG
2.35
1.07
GIF Sundsvall xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
14%
7.24
8%
12.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 10.2 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.1 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.4 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Helsingborg and GIF Sundsvall expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Helsingborg and 1.07 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 44 outings, Helsingborg have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 14W 11D 19L record — L-L-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Helsingborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
GIF Sundsvall's form line: 18W 9D 17L from 44 games, 1.43 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-L. The sample for GIF Sundsvall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Helsingborg against 1.43 for GIF Sundsvall. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Helsingborg have posted 1.10 PPG from 21 outings (6W 5D 10L).
On the road, GIF Sundsvall have gone 6W 5D 10L from 21 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Helsingborg are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; GIF Sundsvall are on 1.39 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helsingborg
Blended
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helsingborg and GIF Sundsvall in coming into this match?
Helsingborg have gone 14W 11D 19L in their last 44 games (1.20 PPG), while GIF Sundsvall have gone 18W 9D 17L in their last 44 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helsingborg at home or GIF Sundsvall away?
Helsingborg's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helsingborg at home: 1.10 PPG; GIF Sundsvall away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Helsingborg or GIF Sundsvall been keeping clean sheets recently?
Helsingborg have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, GIF Sundsvall in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Superettan, Allsvenskan all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 21 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Helsingborg won 5-2 on 21 Jun 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Helsingborg have gone 4W 1D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against GIF Sundsvall — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Helsingborg
2
Draws
2
GIF Sundsvall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and GIF Sundsvall?
From 10 meetings on record, Helsingborg have won 6, GIF Sundsvall have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Helsingborg and GIF Sundsvall last play each other?
They last met on 21 June 2026, when Helsingborg 5-2 GIF Sundsvall.
Who has won more matches between Helsingborg and GIF Sundsvall?
Helsingborg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Helsingborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helsingborg 43%, GIF Sundsvall 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Helsingborg) and 43% (GIF Sundsvall).
On the defensive side: Helsingborg have failed to score in 33% of games; GIF Sundsvall in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helsingborg home games / GIF Sundsvall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helsingborg play GIF Sundsvall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Helsingborg's recent matches and 62% of GIF Sundsvall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Helsingborg vs GIF Sundsvall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Helsingborg's recent games and 43% of GIF Sundsvall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Helsingborg and GIF Sundsvall tend to score early?
Helsingborg have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, GIF Sundsvall in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Helsingborg edge out GIF Sundsvall 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Helsingborg beat GIF Sundsvall 1-0 at Olympia, Regular Season - 15, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helsingborg 1.28 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.07 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. GIF Sundsvall landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helsingborg attack 0.61 / defence 1.29 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.78 / defence 1.43, drawn from 15/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helsingborg 40% | Draw 30% | GIF Sundsvall 30%, with Helsingborg to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helsingborg 50%, GIF Sundsvall 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helsingborg's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Helsingborg 1.20 PPG, GIF Sundsvall 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Helsingborg win broke the near-deadlock. Helsingborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.