Hammarby FF 3-1 Kalmar FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hammarby FF at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hammarby FF vs Kalmar FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Kalmar FF travel to Tele2 Arena to take on Hammarby FF. The game is scheduled for Sunday 31 March 2024, 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Hammarby FF — All Games: 3W 6D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D D D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Tele2 Arena, Hammarby FF have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kalmar FF stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Kalmar FF's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hammarby FF 1.50 PPG, Kalmar FF 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Hammarby FF, 2 for Kalmar FF and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.1 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Hammarby FF in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).
Kalmar FF in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hammarby FF 48% versus Kalmar FF 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hammarby FF 55% | Kalmar FF 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 1.65 xG and Kalmar FF 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 1.049 / defence 1.026 | Kalmar FF attack 0.970 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 1.554 / away 1.436. Data: 30 Hammarby FF games / 30 Kalmar FF games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 43% | Draw 24% | Kalmar FF 33%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 2.33 | Draw 4.17 | Kalmar FF 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.65 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hammarby FF at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.08 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.1 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Hammarby FF 90% | Kalmar FF 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hammarby FF vs Kalmar FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Mar 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hammarby FF 43% | Draw 24% | Kalmar FF 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Hammarby FF 1.65 / Kalmar FF 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Hammarby FF attack 1.049 / def 1.026 | Kalmar FF attack 0.970 / def 1.011 | league avg home 1.554 / away 1.436 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Hammarby FF xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Kalmar FF xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hammarby FF vs Kalmar FF kick off?
Hammarby FF vs Kalmar FF kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 31 March 2024 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Hammarby FF vs Kalmar FF?
Hammarby FF 3 - 1 Kalmar FF.
Where is Hammarby FF vs Kalmar FF being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Hammarby FF vs Kalmar FF part of?
Hammarby FF vs Kalmar FF is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Hammarby FF vs Kalmar FF?
Our statistical model gives Hammarby FF a 43% chance of winning, Kalmar FF a 33% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs Kalmar FF?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Hammarby FF and Kalmar FF will score (BTTS).
Will Hammarby FF vs Kalmar FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Kalmar FF?
Record (7 meetings): Hammarby FF 3W | Draws 2 | Kalmar FF 2W.
What form are Hammarby FF and Kalmar FF in?
Hammarby FF (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-D-D. Kalmar FF (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hammarby FF's attack at 1.05x the league average against Kalmar FF's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.65 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kalmar FF's attack versus Hammarby FF's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
43%
2.33
24%
4.20
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Hammarby FF xG
Total xG
3.08
1.43
Kalmar FF xG
2.33
43%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
19%
5.20
Win to Nil
10%
9.71
6%
15.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.6 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 10.9 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.0 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hammarby FF vs Kalmar FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Hammarby FF and Kalmar FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 1.43 for Kalmar FF, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Hammarby FF vs Kalmar FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hammarby FF's recent record stands at 27W 19D 14L from 60 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with D-D-D-D-D in the last five.
Kalmar FF, meanwhile, have gone 28W 12D 20L across 60 games — 1.60 PPG, with W-W-L-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hammarby FF on 1.67 PPG, Kalmar FF on 1.60. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hammarby FF have managed 17W 10D 3L from 30 games — 2.03 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kalmar FF's away record stands at 10W 7D 13L across 30 trips, a 1.23 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hammarby FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hammarby FF are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Kalmar FF are on 1.27 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Kalmar FF in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hammarby FF
Current Season
Kalmar FF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hammarby FF and Kalmar FF in coming into this match?
Hammarby FF have gone 27W 19D 14L in their last 60 games (1.67 PPG), while Kalmar FF have gone 28W 12D 20L in their last 60 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hammarby FF at home or Kalmar FF away?
Hammarby FF's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hammarby FF at home: 2.03 PPG; Kalmar FF away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Hammarby FF or Kalmar FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Kalmar FF in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 12 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Hammarby FF have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Aug 2024, when Hammarby FF won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hammarby FF's record when hosting Kalmar FF specifically: 5W 1D 0L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Hammarby FF
2
Draws
2
Kalmar FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Kalmar FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Hammarby FF have won 6, Kalmar FF have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hammarby FF and Kalmar FF last play each other?
They last met on 12 July 2026, when Hammarby FF 2-0 Kalmar FF.
Who has won more matches between Hammarby FF and Kalmar FF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hammarby FF 63%, Kalmar FF 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Hammarby FF and 53% for Kalmar FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hammarby FF keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Kalmar FF in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hammarby FF home games / Kalmar FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hammarby FF play Kalmar FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Hammarby FF's games and 53% of Kalmar FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hammarby FF vs Kalmar FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Hammarby FF's matches and 53% of Kalmar FF's.
Do Hammarby FF and Kalmar FF tend to score early?
Hammarby FF have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Kalmar FF in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hammarby FF cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Kalmar FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF beat Kalmar FF 3-1 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 1.65 xG and Kalmar FF 1.43 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Hammarby FF beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 1.05 / defence 1.03 against Kalmar FF attack 0.97 / defence 1.01, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 43% | Draw 24% | Kalmar FF 33%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 55%, Kalmar FF 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hammarby FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Kalmar FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hammarby FF 1.67 PPG, Kalmar FF 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hammarby FF win broke the near-deadlock. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.