Hammarby FF 1-0 IFK Varnamo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hammarby FF at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hammarby FF vs IFK Varnamo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
3Arena plays host to Hammarby FF versus IFK Varnamo in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Saturday 5 July 2025 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hammarby FF have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: D L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hammarby FF's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at 3Arena this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at 3Arena.
IFK Varnamo's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 0W 4D 6L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: D L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for IFK Varnamo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, IFK Varnamo have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.70 in Hammarby FF's favour (2.10 vs 0.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
IFK Varnamo hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 6 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2024, ended 3–0 with Hammarby FF winning.
It is worth noting that IFK Varnamo have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Hammarby FF half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
IFK Varnamo half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hammarby FF 36% versus IFK Varnamo 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hammarby FF 50% | IFK Varnamo 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 2.03 xG and IFK Varnamo 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 1.203 / defence 0.730 | IFK Varnamo attack 0.780 / defence 1.298. League average goals — home 1.300 / away 1.283. IFK Varnamo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.298 — this is suppressing Hammarby FF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Hammarby FF's defence rating of 0.730 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 44 Hammarby FF games / 43 IFK Varnamo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 67% | Draw 21% | IFK Varnamo 12%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 1.49 | Draw 4.76 | IFK Varnamo 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Hammarby FF (67%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
IFK Varnamo lead the H2H ledger, but Hammarby FF carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Hammarby FF as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hammarby FF 40% | IFK Varnamo 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hammarby FF vs IFK Varnamo | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: 3Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Jul 2025, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hammarby FF 67% | Draw 21% | IFK Varnamo 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 46% | xG Hammarby FF 2.03 / IFK Varnamo 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Hammarby FF attack 1.203 / def 0.730 | IFK Varnamo attack 0.780 / def 1.298 | league avg home 1.300 / away 1.283 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
Hammarby FF xG
Expected Goals
0.73
IFK Varnamo xG
46%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hammarby FF vs IFK Varnamo kick off?
Hammarby FF vs IFK Varnamo kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 5 July 2025 at 3Arena.
What was the final score in Hammarby FF vs IFK Varnamo?
Hammarby FF 1 - 0 IFK Varnamo.
Where is Hammarby FF vs IFK Varnamo being played?
The match is being played at 3Arena.
What competition is Hammarby FF vs IFK Varnamo part of?
Hammarby FF vs IFK Varnamo is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Hammarby FF vs IFK Varnamo?
Our statistical model gives Hammarby FF a 67% chance of winning, IFK Varnamo a 12% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs IFK Varnamo?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Hammarby FF and IFK Varnamo will score (BTTS).
Will Hammarby FF vs IFK Varnamo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and IFK Varnamo?
Record (6 meetings): Hammarby FF 1W | Draws 1 | IFK Varnamo 4W.
What form are Hammarby FF and IFK Varnamo in?
Hammarby FF (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. IFK Varnamo (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Hammarby FF's attack rating (1.20) and IFK Varnamo's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 2.03 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — IFK Varnamo's attack (0.78x) against Hammarby FF's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.73.
These ratings are built from 44/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 1-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
67%
1.49
21%
4.78
12%
8.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
Hammarby FF xG
Total xG
2.76
0.73
IFK Varnamo xG
1.49
67%
Home win
4.78
21%
Draw
8.45
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
48%
2.08
13%
7.61
Win to Nil
32%
3.09
2%
64.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.8 | 9.4 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 13.0 | 9.5 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.8 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hammarby FF vs IFK Varnamo?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Hammarby FF and IFK Varnamo expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 0.73 for IFK Varnamo, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Hammarby FF vs IFK Varnamo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hammarby FF's recent record stands at 25W 9D 10L from 44 games, a 1.91 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IFK Varnamo, meanwhile, have gone 8W 14D 22L across 44 games — 0.86 PPG, with D-L-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for IFK Varnamo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hammarby FF by 1.05 — a real, if not enormous, edge over IFK Varnamo heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Hammarby FF have managed 13W 5D 3L from 21 games — 2.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IFK Varnamo's away record stands at 5W 7D 9L across 21 trips, a 1.05 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hammarby FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hammarby FF are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 0.77 conceded per game recently; IFK Varnamo are on 0.95 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Defensively: Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hammarby FF
Blended
IFK Varnamo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hammarby FF and IFK Varnamo in coming into this match?
Hammarby FF have gone 25W 9D 10L in their last 44 games (1.91 PPG), while IFK Varnamo have gone 8W 14D 22L in their last 44 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hammarby FF at home or IFK Varnamo away?
Hammarby FF's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hammarby FF at home: 2.10 PPG; IFK Varnamo away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Hammarby FF or IFK Varnamo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their recent games, IFK Varnamo in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 July 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Hammarby FF go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hammarby FF won 0-3 on 17 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hammarby FF have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against IFK Varnamo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Hammarby FF
1
Draws
4
IFK Varnamo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and IFK Varnamo?
From 8 meetings on record, Hammarby FF have won 3, IFK Varnamo have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hammarby FF and IFK Varnamo last play each other?
They last met on 27 July 2025, when IFK Varnamo 2-3 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between Hammarby FF and IFK Varnamo?
IFK Varnamo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
IFK Varnamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hammarby FF 43%, IFK Varnamo 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Hammarby FF) and 29% (IFK Varnamo).
On the defensive side: Hammarby FF keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; IFK Varnamo in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hammarby FF home games / IFK Varnamo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hammarby FF play IFK Varnamo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Hammarby FF's recent matches and 43% of IFK Varnamo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hammarby FF vs IFK Varnamo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Hammarby FF's recent games and 29% of IFK Varnamo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hammarby FF and IFK Varnamo tend to score early?
Hammarby FF have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, IFK Varnamo in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hammarby FF edge out IFK Varnamo 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF beat IFK Varnamo 1-0 at 3Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 2.03 xG and IFK Varnamo 0.73 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Hammarby FF fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 1.20 / defence 0.73 against IFK Varnamo attack 0.78 / defence 1.30, drawn from 44/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 67% | Draw 21% | IFK Varnamo 12%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 67%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 50%, IFK Varnamo 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hammarby FF's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and duly kept one.
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Hammarby FF arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 0.86. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.