Hammarby FF 1-2 IFK Varnamo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Hammarby FF at 51%, yet in-form IFK Varnamo provide a compelling counter-argument — this Hammarby FF vs IFK Varnamo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tele2 Arena plays host to Hammarby FF versus IFK Varnamo in Allsvenskan (matchday 7). Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024 at 16:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Hammarby FF have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 6D 1L. Last five: D D D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Hammarby FF's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
IFK Varnamo's record over their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, IFK Varnamo have posted 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, IFK Varnamo are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Hammarby FF's last 10 home games and IFK Varnamo's last 10 away games) — Hammarby FF have seen both teams score in 90% of their games, IFK Varnamo in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Across the 4 H2H matches in our data, IFK Varnamo have the stronger record — 3 wins to Hammarby FF's 0, with 1 draw.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.5 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 4 Nov 2023, ended Hammarby FF 0–0 IFK Varnamo — a draw.
IFK Varnamo have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading
Hammarby FF half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).
IFK Varnamo half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hammarby FF 48% versus IFK Varnamo 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hammarby FF 55% | IFK Varnamo 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 1.76 xG and IFK Varnamo 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 1.278 / defence 0.861 | IFK Varnamo attack 0.983 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.377. Hammarby FF carry an above-average attack rating of 1.278 — their 1.76 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Hammarby FF's last 36 games and IFK Varnamo's last 36.
Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 51% | Draw 23% | IFK Varnamo 25%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 1.95 | Draw 4.26 | IFK Varnamo 3.97. Hammarby FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hammarby FF as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form IFK Varnamo (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Hammarby FF's last 10 home games and IFK Varnamo's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hammarby FF 90% (last 10 home games) | IFK Varnamo 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hammarby FF vs IFK Varnamo | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 7 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hammarby FF 51% | Draw 23% | IFK Varnamo 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Hammarby FF 1.76 / IFK Varnamo 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Hammarby FF attack 1.278 / def 0.861 | IFK Varnamo attack 0.983 / def 0.930 | league avg home 1.481 / away 1.377 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Hammarby FF xG
Expected Goals
1.17
IFK Varnamo xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hammarby FF vs IFK Varnamo FAQs
What time does Hammarby FF vs IFK Varnamo kick off?
Hammarby FF vs IFK Varnamo kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Hammarby FF vs IFK Varnamo?
Hammarby FF 1 - 2 IFK Varnamo.
Where is Hammarby FF vs IFK Varnamo being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Hammarby FF vs IFK Varnamo part of?
Hammarby FF vs IFK Varnamo is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 7) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Hammarby FF vs IFK Varnamo?
Our statistical model gives Hammarby FF a 51% chance of winning, IFK Varnamo a 25% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs IFK Varnamo?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Hammarby FF and IFK Varnamo will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Hammarby FF vs IFK Varnamo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Hammarby FF's attack rating (1.28) and IFK Varnamo's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.76 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — IFK Varnamo's attack (0.98x) against Hammarby FF's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from Hammarby FF's last 36 games and IFK Varnamo's last 36 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
51%
1.95
23%
4.26
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Hammarby FF xG
Total xG
2.93
1.17
IFK Varnamo xG
1.95
51%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
17%
5.81
Win to Nil
16%
6.26
4%
23.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.0 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hammarby FF vs IFK Varnamo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hammarby FF vs IFK Varnamo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Hammarby FF and IFK Varnamo expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 1.17 for IFK Varnamo, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Hammarby FF vs IFK Varnamo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hammarby FF's recent record stands at 27W 19D 14L from 60 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with D-D-D-D-D in the last five.
IFK Varnamo, meanwhile, have gone 23W 13D 24L across 60 games — 1.37 PPG, with W-W-W-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.67 PPG for Hammarby FF against 1.37 for IFK Varnamo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Hammarby FF have managed 17W 10D 3L from their last 30 home games — 2.03 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IFK Varnamo's away record stands at 12W 5D 13L across their last 30 away games, a 1.37 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hammarby FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hammarby FF are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; IFK Varnamo are on 1.18 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Defensively: Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hammarby FF
Current Season
IFK Varnamo
Current Season
Hammarby FF (Home) vs IFK Varnamo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hammarby FF
Current Season
IFK Varnamo
Current Season
❓ Hammarby FF vs IFK Varnamo Form FAQs
What form are Hammarby FF and IFK Varnamo in coming into this match?
Hammarby FF have gone 27W 19D 14L in their last 60 games (1.67 PPG), while IFK Varnamo have gone 23W 13D 24L in their last 60 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hammarby FF at home or IFK Varnamo away?
Hammarby FF's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hammarby FF at home: 2.03 PPG; IFK Varnamo away: 1.37 PPG.
Have Hammarby FF or IFK Varnamo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, IFK Varnamo in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent in our data was on 27 July 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Hammarby FF have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hammarby FF won IFK Varnamo 0-3 Hammarby FF on 17 Aug 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hammarby FF have gone 1W 0D 3L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against IFK Varnamo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Hammarby FF
1
Draws
4
IFK Varnamo
Recent Meetings
❓ Hammarby FF vs IFK Varnamo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and IFK Varnamo?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Hammarby FF have won 3, IFK Varnamo have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Hammarby FF and IFK Varnamo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 July 2025: IFK Varnamo 2-3 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between Hammarby FF and IFK Varnamo?
IFK Varnamo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
IFK Varnamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hammarby FF 63%, IFK Varnamo 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Hammarby FF and 63% for IFK Varnamo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hammarby FF keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; IFK Varnamo in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hammarby FF home games / IFK Varnamo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hammarby FF vs IFK Varnamo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hammarby FF and IFK Varnamo matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Hammarby FF's games and 57% of IFK Varnamo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Hammarby FF and IFK Varnamo matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Hammarby FF's matches and 63% of IFK Varnamo's.
Do Hammarby FF and IFK Varnamo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Hammarby FF's recent matches and 77% of IFK Varnamo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as IFK Varnamo defy the odds to beat Hammarby FF 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Varnamo beat Hammarby FF 1-2 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 1.76 xG and IFK Varnamo 1.17 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. IFK Varnamo outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 1.28 / defence 0.86 against IFK Varnamo attack 0.98 / defence 0.93, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 51% | Draw 23% | IFK Varnamo 25%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a IFK Varnamo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 55%, IFK Varnamo 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hammarby FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hammarby FF 1.67 PPG, IFK Varnamo 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Varnamo win broke the near-deadlock. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.