Hammarby FF 3-0 IFK Norrkoping – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hammarby FF at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hammarby FF vs IFK Norrkoping encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees IFK Norrkoping travel to Tele2 Arena to take on Hammarby FF. The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 May 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hammarby FF stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Hammarby FF at Tele2 Arena this season: 9W 0D 1L from 10 home games — 2.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Hammarby FF are significantly better at Tele2 Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, IFK Norrkoping have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, IFK Norrkoping have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Hammarby FF have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Hammarby FF register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, IFK Norrkoping in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Hammarby FF have won 1, IFK Norrkoping 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2021, ended 1–3 with IFK Norrkoping winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Hammarby FF trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
IFK Norrkoping trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hammarby FF 65% and IFK Norrkoping 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hammarby FF 60% | IFK Norrkoping 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 1.46 xG and IFK Norrkoping 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 1.176 / defence 1.067 | IFK Norrkoping attack 0.986 / defence 0.881. League average goals — home 1.410 / away 1.097. Data: 38 Hammarby FF games / 38 IFK Norrkoping games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 44% | Draw 26% | IFK Norrkoping 30%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | IFK Norrkoping 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hammarby FF are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.5 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hammarby FF 60% | IFK Norrkoping 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hammarby FF vs IFK Norrkoping | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 22 May 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hammarby FF 44% | Draw 26% | IFK Norrkoping 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Hammarby FF 1.46 / IFK Norrkoping 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Hammarby FF attack 1.176 / def 1.067 | IFK Norrkoping attack 0.986 / def 0.881 | league avg home 1.410 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Hammarby FF xG
Expected Goals
1.16
IFK Norrkoping xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hammarby FF vs IFK Norrkoping kick off?
Hammarby FF vs IFK Norrkoping kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 22 May 2022 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Hammarby FF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Hammarby FF 3 - 0 IFK Norrkoping.
Where is Hammarby FF vs IFK Norrkoping being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Hammarby FF vs IFK Norrkoping part of?
Hammarby FF vs IFK Norrkoping is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Hammarby FF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our statistical model gives Hammarby FF a 44% chance of winning, IFK Norrkoping a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Hammarby FF and IFK Norrkoping will score (BTTS).
Will Hammarby FF vs IFK Norrkoping have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and IFK Norrkoping?
Record (2 meetings): Hammarby FF 1W | Draws 0 | IFK Norrkoping 1W.
What form are Hammarby FF and IFK Norrkoping in?
Hammarby FF (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. IFK Norrkoping (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hammarby FF's attack at 1.18x the league average against IFK Norrkoping's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, IFK Norrkoping's attack versus Hammarby FF's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.1%), 2-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
44%
2.27
26%
3.86
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Hammarby FF xG
Total xG
2.62
1.16
IFK Norrkoping xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
14%
7.19
7%
14.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.5 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.3 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.0 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hammarby FF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Hammarby FF and IFK Norrkoping expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 1.16 for IFK Norrkoping, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Hammarby FF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, Hammarby FF have picked up 1.57 PPG on a 25W 19D 16L record — L-W-W-D-W across the most recent five.
IFK Norrkoping's form line: 26W 12D 22L from 60 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hammarby FF on 1.57 PPG, IFK Norrkoping on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Hammarby FF have posted 1.90 PPG from 30 outings (15W 12D 3L).
On the road, IFK Norrkoping have gone 12W 3D 15L from 30 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hammarby FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hammarby FF are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; IFK Norrkoping are on 1.75 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hammarby FF have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; IFK Norrkoping in 70%.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hammarby FF
Current Season
IFK Norrkoping
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hammarby FF and IFK Norrkoping in coming into this match?
Hammarby FF have gone 25W 19D 16L in their last 60 games (1.57 PPG), while IFK Norrkoping have gone 26W 12D 22L in their last 60 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hammarby FF at home or IFK Norrkoping away?
Hammarby FF's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hammarby FF at home: 1.90 PPG; IFK Norrkoping away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 10 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 May 2022, when Hammarby FF won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hammarby FF's record when hosting IFK Norrkoping specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Hammarby FF
2
Draws
3
IFK Norrkoping
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and IFK Norrkoping?
From 10 meetings on record, Hammarby FF have won 5, IFK Norrkoping have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hammarby FF and IFK Norrkoping last play each other?
They last met on 10 August 2025, when IFK Norrkoping 0-2 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between Hammarby FF and IFK Norrkoping?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
IFK Norrkoping are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Hammarby FF at 63%, IFK Norrkoping at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Hammarby FF) and 67% (IFK Norrkoping). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hammarby FF home games / IFK Norrkoping away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hammarby FF play IFK Norrkoping?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Hammarby FF's games and 67% of IFK Norrkoping's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hammarby FF vs IFK Norrkoping usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Hammarby FF's matches and 67% of IFK Norrkoping's.
Do Hammarby FF and IFK Norrkoping tend to score early?
Hammarby FF have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, IFK Norrkoping in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hammarby FF run riot with a 3-0 hammering of IFK Norrkoping.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF beat IFK Norrkoping 3-0 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 1.46 xG and IFK Norrkoping 1.16 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Hammarby FF beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. IFK Norrkoping landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 1.18 / defence 1.07 against IFK Norrkoping attack 0.99 / defence 0.88, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 44% | Draw 26% | IFK Norrkoping 30%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 60%, IFK Norrkoping 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hammarby FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hammarby FF 1.57 PPG, IFK Norrkoping 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hammarby FF win broke the near-deadlock. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.93 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. IFK Norrkoping (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.63 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.