Hammarby FF 2-2 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Hammarby FF at 35%, yet in-form IF Elfsborg provide a compelling counter-argument — this Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 16 as Hammarby FF welcome IF Elfsborg to Tele2 Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 16 August 2020 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hammarby FF stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hammarby FF have posted 3W 3D 1L at Tele2 Arena — 1.71 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 0.57 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 7 home games (57%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tele2 Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
IF Elfsborg — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Elfsborg away from home this season: 5W 2D 1L from 8 away games — 2.12 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game. 4 away clean sheets from 8 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. IF Elfsborg's 2.30 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Hammarby FF's 1.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
Hammarby FF trading profile (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (home games).
IF Elfsborg trading profile (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hammarby FF 53% versus IF Elfsborg 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hammarby FF 53% | IF Elfsborg 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 1.12 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 0.885 / defence 0.831 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.965 / defence 1.143. League average goals — home 1.108 / away 1.356. Data: 15 Hammarby FF games / 15 IF Elfsborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 35% | Draw 32% | IF Elfsborg 33%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 2.86 | Draw 3.12 | IF Elfsborg 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hammarby FF as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form IF Elfsborg (2.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.21 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Hammarby FF 29% | IF Elfsborg 38% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Aug 2020, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hammarby FF 35% | Draw 32% | IF Elfsborg 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Hammarby FF 1.12 / IF Elfsborg 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Hammarby FF attack 0.885 / def 0.831 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.965 / def 1.143 | league avg home 1.108 / away 1.356 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Hammarby FF xG
Expected Goals
1.09
IF Elfsborg xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 16 August 2020 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg?
Hammarby FF 2 - 2 IF Elfsborg.
Where is Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg part of?
Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives Hammarby FF a 35% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 33% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg will score (BTTS).
Will Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg in?
Hammarby FF (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. IF Elfsborg (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Hammarby FF's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against IF Elfsborg's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. The same calculation in reverse, IF Elfsborg's attack versus Hammarby FF's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
35%
2.86
32%
3.15
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Hammarby FF xG
Total xG
2.21
1.09
IF Elfsborg xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
12%
8.48
11%
9.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 11.9 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.4 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 1.09 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 15 outings, Hammarby FF have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 6W 5D 4L record — W-D-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IF Elfsborg's form line: 8W 6D 1L from 15 games, 2.00 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-W. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, IF Elfsborg are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hammarby FF.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Hammarby FF have posted 1.71 PPG from 7 outings (3W 3D 1L).
On the road, IF Elfsborg have gone 4W 2D 1L from 7 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Hammarby FF are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 1.80 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: IF Elfsborg in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hammarby FF
Blended
IF Elfsborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
Hammarby FF have gone 6W 5D 4L in their last 15 games (1.53 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 8W 6D 1L in their last 15 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hammarby FF at home or IF Elfsborg away?
IF Elfsborg's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hammarby FF at home: 1.71 PPG; IF Elfsborg away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Hammarby FF or IF Elfsborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, IF Elfsborg in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 5 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Hammarby FF have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Jul 2022, when Hammarby FF won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hammarby FF's record when hosting IF Elfsborg specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Hammarby FF
2
Draws
2
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Hammarby FF have won 6, IF Elfsborg have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
They last met on 5 July 2026, when IF Elfsborg 1-2 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hammarby FF see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hammarby FF 29%, IF Elfsborg 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 14% (Hammarby FF) and 57% (IF Elfsborg).
On the defensive side: Hammarby FF keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; IF Elfsborg in 43%; Hammarby FF have failed to score in 29% of games; IF Elfsborg in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hammarby FF home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hammarby FF play IF Elfsborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Hammarby FF's recent matches and 43% of IF Elfsborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 14% of Hammarby FF's recent games and 57% of IF Elfsborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg tend to score early?
Hammarby FF have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, IF Elfsborg in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 16, as Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg drew 2-2 in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 1.12 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.09 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Hammarby FF beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. IF Elfsborg outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 0.89 / defence 0.83 against IF Elfsborg attack 0.96 / defence 1.14, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 35% | Draw 32% | IF Elfsborg 33%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 53%, IF Elfsborg 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hammarby FF's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Elfsborg arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.53. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.