Hammarby FF 2-1 IF Brommapojkarna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hammarby FF at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hammarby FF vs IF Brommapojkarna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hammarby FF and IF Brommapojkarna meet at Tele2 Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Friday 9 June 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Hammarby FF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Tele2 Arena, Hammarby FF have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Hammarby FF are significantly better at Tele2 Arena than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 1.53 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 1.026 / defence 1.136 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.189 / defence 0.969. League average goals — home 1.541 / away 1.130. Data: 42 Hammarby FF games / 11 IF Brommapojkarna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 37% | Draw 27% | IF Brommapojkarna 36%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | IF Brommapojkarna 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 1.53) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hammarby FF at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hammarby FF vs IF Brommapojkarna | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Friday 9 Jun 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hammarby FF 37% | Draw 27% | IF Brommapojkarna 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 63% | xG Hammarby FF 1.53 / IF Brommapojkarna 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Hammarby FF attack 1.026 / def 1.136 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.189 / def 0.969 | league avg home 1.541 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Hammarby FF xG
Expected Goals
1.53
IF Brommapojkarna xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hammarby FF vs IF Brommapojkarna kick off?
Hammarby FF vs IF Brommapojkarna kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 9 June 2023 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Hammarby FF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Hammarby FF 2 - 1 IF Brommapojkarna.
Where is Hammarby FF vs IF Brommapojkarna being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Hammarby FF vs IF Brommapojkarna part of?
Hammarby FF vs IF Brommapojkarna is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Hammarby FF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our statistical model gives Hammarby FF a 37% chance of winning, IF Brommapojkarna a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Hammarby FF and IF Brommapojkarna will score (BTTS).
Will Hammarby FF vs IF Brommapojkarna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and IF Brommapojkarna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hammarby FF and IF Brommapojkarna in?
Hammarby FF (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Hammarby FF home split: 2.10 PPG from 10 | GF 2.70 / GA 0.90 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Hammarby FF's attack rating (1.03) and IF Brommapojkarna's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — IF Brommapojkarna's attack (1.19x) against Hammarby FF's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.53.
These ratings are built from 42/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
37%
2.73
27%
3.71
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Hammarby FF xG
Total xG
3.06
1.53
IF Brommapojkarna xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
22%
4.60
22%
4.63
Win to Nil
8%
12.55
8%
12.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 7.2 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.0 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.4 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hammarby FF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Hammarby FF and IF Brommapojkarna expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 1.53 for IF Brommapojkarna, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Hammarby FF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hammarby FF
Pre-Season
IF Brommapojkarna
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since June 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hammarby FF have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against IF Brommapojkarna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Hammarby FF
2
Draws
1
IF Brommapojkarna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and IF Brommapojkarna?
From 7 meetings on record, Hammarby FF have won 4, IF Brommapojkarna have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hammarby FF and IF Brommapojkarna last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when IF Brommapojkarna 1-1 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between Hammarby FF and IF Brommapojkarna?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hammarby FF home games / IF Brommapojkarna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Hammarby FF edge out IF Brommapojkarna 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF beat IF Brommapojkarna 2-1 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 1.53 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.53 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 1.03 / defence 1.14 against IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.19 / defence 0.97, drawn from 42/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 37% | Draw 27% | IF Brommapojkarna 36%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.