Hammarby FF 1-1 Falkenbergs FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hammarby FF at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hammarby FF vs Falkenbergs FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Falkenbergs FF travel to Tele2 Arena to take on Hammarby FF. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 5 August 2020, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hammarby FF stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hammarby FF's home record at Tele2 Arena: 3W 2D 1L from 6 Allsvenskan appearances (1.83 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 6 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tele2 Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.83 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Hammarby FF are significantly better at Tele2 Arena than their overall form suggests.
Falkenbergs FF — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Falkenbergs FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Falkenbergs FF have posted 2W 2D 2L from 6 away outings — 1.33 PPG. Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.33 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Hammarby FF are in the better shape of the two on current Allsvenskan data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
Hammarby FF trading profile (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Falkenbergs FF trading profile (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hammarby FF 42% versus Falkenbergs FF 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hammarby FF 50% | Falkenbergs FF 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 1.27 xG and Falkenbergs FF 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 0.932 / defence 0.835 | Falkenbergs FF attack 0.834 / defence 1.229. League average goals — home 1.113 / away 1.238. Falkenbergs FF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.229 — this is suppressing Hammarby FF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Hammarby FF games / 12 Falkenbergs FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 45% | Draw 32% | Falkenbergs FF 24%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 2.22 | Draw 3.12 | Falkenbergs FF 4.17. Hammarby FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hammarby FF as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.14 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hammarby FF 17% | Falkenbergs FF 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hammarby FF vs Falkenbergs FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 5 Aug 2020, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hammarby FF 45% | Draw 32% | Falkenbergs FF 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Hammarby FF 1.27 / Falkenbergs FF 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Hammarby FF attack 0.932 / def 0.835 | Falkenbergs FF attack 0.834 / def 1.229 | league avg home 1.113 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Hammarby FF xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Falkenbergs FF xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hammarby FF vs Falkenbergs FF kick off?
Hammarby FF vs Falkenbergs FF kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 5 August 2020 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Hammarby FF vs Falkenbergs FF?
Hammarby FF 1 - 1 Falkenbergs FF.
Where is Hammarby FF vs Falkenbergs FF being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Hammarby FF vs Falkenbergs FF part of?
Hammarby FF vs Falkenbergs FF is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Hammarby FF vs Falkenbergs FF?
Our statistical model gives Hammarby FF a 45% chance of winning, Falkenbergs FF a 24% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs Falkenbergs FF?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Hammarby FF and Falkenbergs FF will score (BTTS).
Will Hammarby FF vs Falkenbergs FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Falkenbergs FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hammarby FF and Falkenbergs FF in?
Hammarby FF (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. Falkenbergs FF (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Hammarby FF's attack rating (0.93) and Falkenbergs FF's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Falkenbergs FF's attack versus Hammarby FF's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 1-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
45%
2.25
32%
3.15
24%
4.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Hammarby FF xG
Total xG
2.14
0.86
Falkenbergs FF xG
2.25
45%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
4.22
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
19%
5.32
7%
15.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 10.2 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.0 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hammarby FF vs Falkenbergs FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Hammarby FF and Falkenbergs FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 0.86 for Falkenbergs FF, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Hammarby FF vs Falkenbergs FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hammarby FF come into this having played 12 games, going 4W 4D 4L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-D. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Falkenbergs FF sit at 0.92 PPG from 12 outings (2W 5D 5L), a run that reads L-D-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Falkenbergs FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hammarby FF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Falkenbergs FF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Hammarby FF's home form reads 3W 2D 1L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.83 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — Hammarby FF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Falkenbergs FF have taken 1.33 points per game from 6 outings (2W 2D 2L). That's actually stronger than their 0.92 PPG overall record — Falkenbergs FF travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hammarby FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hammarby FF are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Falkenbergs FF are on 1.17 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Falkenbergs FF in 67%.
Last 12 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hammarby FF
Blended
Falkenbergs FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hammarby FF and Falkenbergs FF in coming into this match?
Hammarby FF have gone 4W 4D 4L in their last 12 games (1.33 PPG), while Falkenbergs FF have gone 2W 5D 5L in their last 12 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hammarby FF at home or Falkenbergs FF away?
Hammarby FF's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hammarby FF at home: 1.83 PPG; Falkenbergs FF away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Hammarby FF or Falkenbergs FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Falkenbergs FF in 8%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hammarby FF and Falkenbergs FF runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 September 2020, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Hammarby FF
1
Draws
0
Falkenbergs FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Falkenbergs FF?
From 2 meetings on record, Hammarby FF have won 1, Falkenbergs FF have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hammarby FF and Falkenbergs FF last play each other?
They last met on 27 September 2020, when Falkenbergs FF 1-3 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between Hammarby FF and Falkenbergs FF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hammarby FF see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Falkenbergs FF see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hammarby FF 17%, Falkenbergs FF 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Hammarby FF and 50% for Falkenbergs FF.
On the defensive side: Hammarby FF keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Hammarby FF have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hammarby FF home games / Falkenbergs FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hammarby FF play Falkenbergs FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of Hammarby FF's recent matches and 67% of Falkenbergs FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hammarby FF vs Falkenbergs FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Hammarby FF's recent games and 50% of Falkenbergs FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Hammarby FF and Falkenbergs FF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 13, as Hammarby FF and Falkenbergs FF drew 1-1 in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 1.27 xG and Falkenbergs FF 0.86 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 0.93 / defence 0.83 against Falkenbergs FF attack 0.83 / defence 1.23, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 45% | Draw 32% | Falkenbergs FF 24%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 50%, Falkenbergs FF 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hammarby FF's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Falkenbergs FF's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hammarby FF arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.