Halmstad 1-3 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mjallby AIF at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Halmstad vs Mjallby AIF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Halmstad and Mjallby AIF meet at Örjans Vall in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 23 April 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Halmstad have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Halmstad's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Örjans Vall this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Mjallby AIF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Mjallby AIF away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Mjallby AIF arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Halmstad, 2 for Mjallby AIF and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2024, ended 1–3 with Mjallby AIF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Halmstad half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Mjallby AIF half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Halmstad 45% versus Mjallby AIF 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Halmstad 50% | Mjallby AIF 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Halmstad 0.92 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Halmstad attack 0.783 / defence 1.215 | Mjallby AIF attack 1.281 / defence 0.891. League average goals — home 1.318 / away 1.170. Halmstad's attack strength of 0.783 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Mjallby AIF have an above-average attack strength of 1.281 — the away xG of 1.82 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 34 Halmstad games / 34 Mjallby AIF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Halmstad 19% | Draw 23% | Mjallby AIF 59%. Fair-value odds: Halmstad 5.26 | Draw 4.35 | Mjallby AIF 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Mjallby AIF (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Mjallby AIF as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Halmstad 30% | Mjallby AIF 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Halmstad vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Örjans Vall • Kick-off: Wednesday 23 Apr 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Halmstad 19% | Draw 23% | Mjallby AIF 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 50% | xG Halmstad 0.92 / Mjallby AIF 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: Halmstad attack 0.783 / def 1.215 | Mjallby AIF attack 1.281 / def 0.891 | league avg home 1.318 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Halmstad xG
Expected Goals
1.82
Mjallby AIF xG
50%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Halmstad vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
Halmstad vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 23 April 2025 at Örjans Vall.
What was the final score in Halmstad vs Mjallby AIF?
Halmstad 1 - 3 Mjallby AIF.
Where is Halmstad vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Örjans Vall.
What competition is Halmstad vs Mjallby AIF part of?
Halmstad vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Halmstad vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives Halmstad a 19% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 59% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Halmstad vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Halmstad and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will Halmstad vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Halmstad and Mjallby AIF?
Record (6 meetings): Halmstad 1W | Draws 3 | Mjallby AIF 2W.
What form are Halmstad and Mjallby AIF in?
Halmstad (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Mjallby AIF (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Halmstad's attack at 0.78x the league average against Mjallby AIF's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 0.92 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Mjallby AIF's attack (1.28x) against Halmstad's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.82.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (10.7%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
19%
5.35
23%
4.40
59%
1.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
0 – 2
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Halmstad xG
Total xG
2.74
1.82
Mjallby AIF xG
5.35
19%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
1.71
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
16%
6.17
40%
2.51
Win to Nil
3%
33.02
23%
4.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 11.8 | 10.7 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.8 | 9.8 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Halmstad vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Halmstad and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Halmstad and 1.82 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Halmstad vs Mjallby AIF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, Halmstad have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 19W 12D 29L record — L-W-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Mjallby AIF's form line: 26W 13D 21L from 60 games, 1.52 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Halmstad against 1.52 for Mjallby AIF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Halmstad have posted 1.43 PPG from 30 outings (12W 7D 11L).
On the road, Mjallby AIF have gone 13W 5D 12L from 30 away games — 1.47 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Halmstad are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.27 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Halmstad
Current Season
Mjallby AIF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Halmstad and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
Halmstad have gone 19W 12D 29L in their last 60 games (1.15 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 26W 13D 21L in their last 60 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Halmstad at home or Mjallby AIF away?
Mjallby AIF's away record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Halmstad at home: 1.43 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 1.47 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Mjallby AIF have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Halmstad have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Mjallby AIF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Halmstad
3
Draws
5
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Halmstad and Mjallby AIF?
From 9 meetings on record, Halmstad have won 1, Mjallby AIF have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Halmstad and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when Mjallby AIF 2-0 Halmstad.
Who has won more matches between Halmstad and Mjallby AIF?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Halmstad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Halmstad 33%, Mjallby AIF 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Halmstad) and 43% (Mjallby AIF).
On the defensive side: Halmstad keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Halmstad have failed to score in 40% of games; Mjallby AIF in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Halmstad home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Halmstad play Mjallby AIF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Halmstad's recent matches and 40% of Mjallby AIF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Halmstad vs Mjallby AIF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Halmstad's recent games and 43% of Mjallby AIF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Halmstad and Mjallby AIF tend to score early?
Halmstad have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Mjallby AIF in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mjallby AIF cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Halmstad.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat Halmstad 1-3 at Örjans Vall, Regular Season - 5, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Halmstad 0.92 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.82 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Mjallby AIF outscored their 1.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Halmstad attack 0.78 / defence 1.22 against Mjallby AIF attack 1.28 / defence 0.89, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Halmstad 19% | Draw 23% | Mjallby AIF 59%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Halmstad 50%, Mjallby AIF 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Halmstad's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Halmstad 1.15 PPG, Mjallby AIF 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mjallby AIF win broke the near-deadlock. Halmstad (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.