Halmstad 1-1 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mjallby AIF at 55% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Halmstad vs Mjallby AIF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Halmstad and Mjallby AIF meet at Örjans Vall in Allsvenskan (matchday 27). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 October 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Halmstad have collected 0.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Halmstad's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Halmstad are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Mjallby AIF's record over their last 10 games: 4W 0D 6L (1.20 PPG). Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Mjallby AIF away from home: 6W 0D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Mjallby AIF arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (from Halmstad's last 10 home games and Mjallby AIF's last 10 away games) — Halmstad have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Mjallby AIF in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Halmstad edge it 1 wins to 0, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.3 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 27 May 2023, ended Halmstad 2–0 Mjallby AIF — a Halmstad win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Halmstad half-time and goal-timing data (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Mjallby AIF half-time and goal-timing data (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; BTTS occurs in 21% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Halmstad 50% versus Mjallby AIF 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Halmstad 59% | Mjallby AIF 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Halmstad 0.65 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Halmstad attack 0.607 / defence 1.097 | Mjallby AIF attack 1.019 / defence 0.765. League average goals — home 1.404 / away 1.237. Halmstad's attack rating of 0.607 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.65. Mjallby AIF bring a tight defence (rating 0.765, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Halmstad's projected output down. Data: built from Halmstad's last 26 games and Mjallby AIF's last 56.
Result probabilities: Halmstad 18% | Draw 28% | Mjallby AIF 55%. Fair-value odds: Halmstad 5.68 | Draw 3.60 | Mjallby AIF 1.83. The model has a clear lean to Mjallby AIF (55%) — a 27pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 36% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 64% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Mjallby AIF as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.03 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 67% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Halmstad's last 10 home games and Mjallby AIF's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Halmstad 30% (last 10 home games) | Mjallby AIF 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Halmstad vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 27 | Venue: Örjans Vall • Kick-off: Sunday 22 October 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Halmstad 18% | Draw 28% | Mjallby AIF 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 36% (No 64%) | xG Halmstad 0.65 / Mjallby AIF 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Halmstad attack 0.607 / def 1.097 | Mjallby AIF attack 1.019 / def 0.765 | league avg home 1.404 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.65
Halmstad xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Mjallby AIF xG
36%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Halmstad vs Mjallby AIF FAQs
What time does Halmstad vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
Halmstad vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 22 October 2023 at Örjans Vall.
What was the final score in Halmstad vs Mjallby AIF?
Halmstad 1 - 1 Mjallby AIF.
Where is Halmstad vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Örjans Vall.
What competition is Halmstad vs Mjallby AIF part of?
Halmstad vs Mjallby AIF is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 27) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Halmstad vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives Halmstad a 18% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 55% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Halmstad vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Halmstad and Mjallby AIF will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (64%).
Will Halmstad vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Halmstad's attack at 0.61x the league average against Mjallby AIF's defence at 0.77x — combine the two and it projects 0.65 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Mjallby AIF's attack (1.02x) against Halmstad's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from Halmstad's last 26 games and Mjallby AIF's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 16.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 1-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
18%
5.68
28%
3.60
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
0 – 2
12.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.65
Halmstad xG
Total xG
2.03
1.38
Mjallby AIF xG
5.68
18%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.79
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
25%
3.98
52%
1.92
Win to Nil
4%
22.63
28%
3.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 18.1 | 12.5 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.8 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Halmstad vs Mjallby AIF Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Halmstad vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are Halmstad and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 0.65 expected goals for Halmstad and 1.38 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Halmstad vs Mjallby AIF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 56 outings, Halmstad have picked up 1.54 PPG on a 25W 11D 20L record — W-L-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Mjallby AIF's form line: 21W 14D 21L from 56 games, 1.38 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.54 PPG for Halmstad against 1.38 for Mjallby AIF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Halmstad have posted 1.71 PPG from their last 28 home games (14W 6D 8L).
On the road, Mjallby AIF have gone 13W 5D 10L from their last 28 away games — 1.57 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Halmstad are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.05 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Halmstad
Blended
Mjallby AIF
Blended
Halmstad (Home) vs Mjallby AIF (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Halmstad
Blended
Mjallby AIF
Blended
❓ Halmstad vs Mjallby AIF Form FAQs
What form are Halmstad and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
Halmstad have gone 25W 11D 20L in their last 56 games (1.54 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 21W 14D 21L in their last 56 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Halmstad at home or Mjallby AIF away?
Halmstad's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Halmstad at home: 1.71 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Halmstad or Mjallby AIF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Halmstad have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Mjallby AIF in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 9 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was on 27 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Mjallby AIF have won each of the latest 5 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Halmstad have gone 0W 2D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Mjallby AIF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Halmstad
3
Draws
5
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Halmstad vs Mjallby AIF H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Halmstad and Mjallby AIF?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Halmstad have won 1, Mjallby AIF have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Halmstad and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 April 2026: Mjallby AIF 2-0 Halmstad.
Who has won more matches between Halmstad and Mjallby AIF?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Halmstad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Mjallby AIF see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 46% (Halmstad) and 21% (Mjallby AIF) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Halmstad) and 25% (Mjallby AIF).
On the defensive side: Halmstad keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Mjallby AIF in 46%; Halmstad have failed to score in 29% of games; Mjallby AIF in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Halmstad home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Halmstad vs Mjallby AIF Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Halmstad and Mjallby AIF matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Halmstad's recent matches and 21% of Mjallby AIF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Halmstad and Mjallby AIF matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Halmstad's recent games and 25% of Mjallby AIF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Halmstad and Mjallby AIF matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Halmstad's recent matches and 57% of Mjallby AIF's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Halmstad and Mjallby AIF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Halmstad and Mjallby AIF finished level at 1-1 at Örjans Vall, Regular Season - 27, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Halmstad 0.65 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.38 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Halmstad attack 0.61 / defence 1.10 against Mjallby AIF attack 1.02 / defence 0.77, drawn from 26/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Halmstad 18% | Draw 28% | Mjallby AIF 55%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Halmstad 59%, Mjallby AIF 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Halmstad's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Halmstad 1.54 PPG, Mjallby AIF 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.