GIF Sundsvall 2-3 Degerfors IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GIF Sundsvall at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this GIF Sundsvall vs Degerfors IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
GIF Sundsvall host Degerfors IF at NP3 Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 9 May 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Degerfors IF have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Degerfors IF have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.17 xG and Degerfors IF 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.709 / defence 1.417 | Degerfors IF attack 0.786 / defence 1.268. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.018. GIF Sundsvall's attack strength of 0.709 is below the league average — the 1.17 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Degerfors IF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.268 — this is suppressing GIF Sundsvall's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 GIF Sundsvall games / 36 Degerfors IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 37% | Draw 28% | Degerfors IF 35%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | Degerfors IF 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, GIF Sundsvall are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on GIF Sundsvall offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Monday 9 May 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 37% | Draw 28% | Degerfors IF 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG GIF Sundsvall 1.17 / Degerfors IF 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.709 / def 1.417 | Degerfors IF attack 0.786 / def 1.268 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.018 • Poisson stance: GIF Sundsvall (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Degerfors IF xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs Degerfors IF kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs Degerfors IF kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 9 May 2022 at NP3 Arena.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs Degerfors IF?
GIF Sundsvall 2 - 3 Degerfors IF.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs Degerfors IF part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs Degerfors IF is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 37% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making GIF Sundsvall the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and Degerfors IF will score (BTTS).
Will GIF Sundsvall vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Degerfors IF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Degerfors IF in?
Degerfors IF (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Degerfors IF away split: 0.70 PPG from 10 | GF 0.70 / GA 2.30 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates GIF Sundsvall's attack at 0.71x the league average against Degerfors IF's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Degerfors IF's attack versus GIF Sundsvall's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIF Sundsvall Win
37%
2.72
28%
3.53
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
2.31
1.13
Degerfors IF xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
12%
8.44
11%
9.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 11.3 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.2 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.8 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 1.13 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs Degerfors IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Pre-Season
Degerfors IF
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 October 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Degerfors IF go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
GIF Sundsvall's record when hosting Degerfors IF specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
GIF Sundsvall
0
Draws
4
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Degerfors IF?
From 4 meetings on record, GIF Sundsvall have won 0, Degerfors IF have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and Degerfors IF last play each other?
They last met on 6 October 2024, when GIF Sundsvall 1-2 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between GIF Sundsvall and Degerfors IF?
Degerfors IF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Degerfors IF defy the odds to beat GIF Sundsvall 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Degerfors IF beat GIF Sundsvall 2-3 at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.17 xG and Degerfors IF 1.13 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. GIF Sundsvall beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Degerfors IF outscored their 1.13 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 0.71 / defence 1.42 against Degerfors IF attack 0.79 / defence 1.27, drawn from 6/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 37% | Draw 28% | Degerfors IF 35%, with GIF Sundsvall to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Degerfors IF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.