GIF Sundsvall 1-5 BK Hacken – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates BK Hacken at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this GIF Sundsvall vs BK Hacken encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
NP3 Arena plays host to GIF Sundsvall versus BK Hacken in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Monday 18 July 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
GIF Sundsvall have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at NP3 Arena, GIF Sundsvall have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
BK Hacken (all games): 6W 4D 0L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for BK Hacken, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, BK Hacken have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, BK Hacken are the stronger side — 1.20 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — GIF Sundsvall have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, BK Hacken in 90%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
GIF Sundsvall — key trading statistics (43 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
BK Hacken — key trading statistics (43 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 77% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — GIF Sundsvall 56% and BK Hacken 77% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIF Sundsvall 44% | BK Hacken 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.41 xG and BK Hacken 2.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 1.023 / defence 1.636 | BK Hacken attack 1.321 / defence 0.922. League average goals — home 1.491 / away 1.043. BK Hacken have an above-average attack strength of 1.321 — the away xG of 2.25 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 13 GIF Sundsvall games / 43 BK Hacken games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 23% | Draw 21% | BK Hacken 56%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 4.35 | Draw 4.76 | BK Hacken 1.79. The model has a clear lean to BK Hacken (56%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.66. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.66 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.41 / 2.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, BK Hacken are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.66 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: GIF Sundsvall 60% | BK Hacken 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs BK Hacken | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Monday 18 Jul 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 23% | Draw 21% | BK Hacken 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 68% | xG GIF Sundsvall 1.41 / BK Hacken 2.25 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 1.023 / def 1.636 | BK Hacken attack 1.321 / def 0.922 | league avg home 1.491 / away 1.043 • Poisson stance: BK Hacken (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
2.25
BK Hacken xG
68%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs BK Hacken kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs BK Hacken kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 18 July 2022 at NP3 Arena.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs BK Hacken?
GIF Sundsvall 1 - 5 BK Hacken.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs BK Hacken being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs BK Hacken part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs BK Hacken is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs BK Hacken?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 23% chance of winning, BK Hacken a 56% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making BK Hacken the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs BK Hacken?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and BK Hacken will score (BTTS).
Will GIF Sundsvall vs BK Hacken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and BK Hacken?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are GIF Sundsvall and BK Hacken in?
GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. BK Hacken (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates GIF Sundsvall's attack at 1.02x the league average against BK Hacken's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — BK Hacken's attack (1.32x) against GIF Sundsvall's defence (1.64x) — and the away total comes out at 2.25.
These ratings are built from 13/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 1-3 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
BK Hacken Win
23%
4.39
21%
4.72
56%
1.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
1 – 3
6.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
3.66
2.25
BK Hacken xG
4.39
23%
Home win
4.72
21%
Draw
1.78
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.14
Clean Sheet
10%
9.53
25%
4.08
Win to Nil
2%
41.83
14%
7.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 3.6 | 8.2 | 9.2 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 5.7 | 6.5 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs BK Hacken?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and BK Hacken expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 2.25 for BK Hacken, a combined total of 3.66.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs BK Hacken?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
GIF Sundsvall come into this having played 43 games, going 18W 9D 16L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-D. The sample for GIF Sundsvall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, BK Hacken sit at 1.49 PPG from 43 outings (17W 13D 13L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for BK Hacken is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for GIF Sundsvall against 1.49 for BK Hacken. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
GIF Sundsvall's home form reads 12W 4D 6L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.82 PPG return.
Away from home, BK Hacken have taken 1.36 points per game from 22 outings (7W 9D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, GIF Sundsvall come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
GIF Sundsvall are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; BK Hacken are on 1.70 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: BK Hacken in 77%.
Last 43 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
BK Hacken
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIF Sundsvall and BK Hacken in coming into this match?
GIF Sundsvall have gone 18W 9D 16L in their last 43 games (1.47 PPG), while BK Hacken have gone 17W 13D 13L in their last 43 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIF Sundsvall at home or BK Hacken away?
GIF Sundsvall's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIF Sundsvall at home: 1.82 PPG; BK Hacken away: 1.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
GIF Sundsvall
0
Draws
2
BK Hacken
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and BK Hacken?
From 2 meetings on record, GIF Sundsvall have won 0, BK Hacken have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and BK Hacken last play each other?
They last met on 15 October 2022, when BK Hacken 4-1 GIF Sundsvall.
Who has won more matches between GIF Sundsvall and BK Hacken?
BK Hacken have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
BK Hacken see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 50% for GIF Sundsvall, 82% for BK Hacken — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (GIF Sundsvall) and 59% (BK Hacken).
On the defensive side: GIF Sundsvall keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / BK Hacken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIF Sundsvall play BK Hacken?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of GIF Sundsvall's games and 82% of BK Hacken's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is GIF Sundsvall vs BK Hacken usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of GIF Sundsvall's recent games and 59% of BK Hacken's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIF Sundsvall and BK Hacken tend to score early?
GIF Sundsvall have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, BK Hacken in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant BK Hacken run riot with a 1-5 hammering of GIF Sundsvall.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BK Hacken beat GIF Sundsvall 1-5 at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.41 xG and BK Hacken 2.25 xG, a combined 3.66. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. BK Hacken outscored their 2.25 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 1.02 / defence 1.64 against BK Hacken attack 1.32 / defence 0.92, drawn from 13/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 23% | Draw 21% | BK Hacken 56%, with BK Hacken to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 44%, BK Hacken 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (43 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
BK Hacken's trading profile (43 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GIF Sundsvall 1.47 PPG, BK Hacken 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the BK Hacken win broke the near-deadlock. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual. BK Hacken (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.