Gais 0-0 Hammarby FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gais at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gais vs Hammarby FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Gais host Hammarby FF at Gamla Ullevi in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 7 July 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Gais — All Games: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Gais, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gais at Gamla Ullevi this season: 8W 0D 2L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Gais are significantly better at Gamla Ullevi than their overall form suggests.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Hammarby FF have recorded 6W 0D 4L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hammarby FF's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Gais) versus 1.80 (Hammarby FF). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Gais in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Hammarby FF in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gais 43% versus Hammarby FF 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gais 62% | Hammarby FF 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gais 1.57 xG and Hammarby FF 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gais attack 1.022 / defence 0.995 | Hammarby FF attack 0.968 / defence 0.913. League average goals — home 1.684 / away 1.354. Data: 12 Gais games / 42 Hammarby FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gais 44% | Draw 25% | Hammarby FF 32%. Fair-value odds: Gais 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | Hammarby FF 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gais are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gais offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Gais 50% | Hammarby FF 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gais vs Hammarby FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Jul 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gais 44% | Draw 25% | Hammarby FF 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Gais 1.57 / Hammarby FF 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Gais attack 1.022 / def 0.995 | Hammarby FF attack 0.968 / def 0.913 | league avg home 1.684 / away 1.354 • Poisson stance: Gais (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Gais xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Hammarby FF xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gais vs Hammarby FF kick off?
Gais vs Hammarby FF kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 7 July 2024 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Gais vs Hammarby FF?
Gais 0 - 0 Hammarby FF.
Where is Gais vs Hammarby FF being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Gais vs Hammarby FF part of?
Gais vs Hammarby FF is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gais vs Hammarby FF?
Our statistical model gives Gais a 44% chance of winning, Hammarby FF a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Gais the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gais vs Hammarby FF?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Gais and Hammarby FF will score (BTTS).
Will Gais vs Hammarby FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and Hammarby FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gais and Hammarby FF in?
Gais (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Hammarby FF (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Gais's attack rating (1.02) and Hammarby FF's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hammarby FF's attack versus Gais's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Gais Win
44%
2.29
25%
4.06
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Gais xG
Total xG
2.88
1.30
Hammarby FF xG
2.29
44%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
21%
4.81
Win to Nil
12%
8.44
7%
15.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.4 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.6 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.1 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gais vs Hammarby FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Gais and Hammarby FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Gais and 1.30 for Hammarby FF, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Gais vs Hammarby FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Gais come into this having played 42 games, going 24W 6D 12L for 1.86 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L. The sample for Gais is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hammarby FF sit at 1.55 PPG from 42 outings (18W 11D 13L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gais on 1.86 PPG, Hammarby FF on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Gais's home form reads 14W 2D 5L across 21 games on their own ground, a 2.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Hammarby FF have taken 1.00 points per game from 21 outings (5W 6D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.55 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hammarby FF's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gais come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Gais are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Hammarby FF are on 1.48 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Defensively: Gais have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gais
Blended
Hammarby FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gais and Hammarby FF in coming into this match?
Gais have gone 24W 6D 12L in their last 42 games (1.86 PPG), while Hammarby FF have gone 18W 11D 13L in their last 42 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gais at home or Hammarby FF away?
Gais's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gais at home: 2.10 PPG; Hammarby FF away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Gais or Hammarby FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gais have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Hammarby FF in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gais and Hammarby FF runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 20 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Gais go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Gais's record when hosting Hammarby FF specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Gais
2
Draws
0
Hammarby FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and Hammarby FF?
From 5 meetings on record, Gais have won 3, Hammarby FF have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gais and Hammarby FF last play each other?
They last met on 20 May 2026, when Gais 2-0 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between Gais and Hammarby FF?
Gais have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gais are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gais 43%, Hammarby FF 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Gais) and 48% (Hammarby FF).
On the defensive side: Gais keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Hammarby FF in 33%; Hammarby FF in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gais home games / Hammarby FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gais play Hammarby FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Gais's recent matches and 38% of Hammarby FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gais vs Hammarby FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Gais's recent games and 48% of Hammarby FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gais and Hammarby FF tend to score early?
Gais have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Hammarby FF in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Gais's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gais and Hammarby FF finished level at 0-0 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 13, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gais 1.57 xG and Hammarby FF 1.30 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Gais fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Hammarby FF landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gais attack 1.02 / defence 0.99 against Hammarby FF attack 0.97 / defence 0.91, drawn from 12/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gais 44% | Draw 25% | Hammarby FF 32%, with Gais to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gais 62%, Hammarby FF 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gais's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hammarby FF's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gais 1.86 PPG, Hammarby FF 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Gais (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.