Gais 1-1 Degerfors IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gais at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gais vs Degerfors IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Degerfors IF make the trip to Gamla Ullevi to face Gais in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Saturday 16 May 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Gais (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Gais's home record at Gamla Ullevi: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Degerfors IF have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Degerfors IF's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Gais against 1.50 for Degerfors IF. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Gais, 0 for Degerfors IF and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Jul 2025, ended 3–0 with Gais winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Gais half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Degerfors IF half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gais 50% versus Degerfors IF 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gais 48% | Degerfors IF 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gais 1.29 xG and Degerfors IF 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gais attack 0.930 / defence 0.679 | Degerfors IF attack 1.093 / defence 0.868. League average goals — home 1.601 / away 1.349. Gais's defence rating of 0.679 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 37 Gais games / 37 Degerfors IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gais 43% | Draw 28% | Degerfors IF 29%. Fair-value odds: Gais 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Degerfors IF 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gais at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gais if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. This conflicts with form data: Gais 50% | Degerfors IF 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gais vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Saturday 16 May 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gais 43% | Draw 28% | Degerfors IF 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Gais 1.29 / Degerfors IF 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Gais attack 0.930 / def 0.679 | Degerfors IF attack 1.093 / def 0.868 | league avg home 1.601 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Gais (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Gais xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Degerfors IF xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gais vs Degerfors IF kick off?
Gais vs Degerfors IF kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 16 May 2026 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Gais vs Degerfors IF?
Gais 1 - 1 Degerfors IF.
Where is Gais vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Gais vs Degerfors IF part of?
Gais vs Degerfors IF is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gais vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives Gais a 43% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Gais the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gais vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Gais and Degerfors IF will score (BTTS).
Will Gais vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and Degerfors IF?
Record (2 meetings): Gais 2W | Draws 0 | Degerfors IF 0W.
What form are Gais and Degerfors IF in?
Gais (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Degerfors IF (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Gais's attack at 0.93x the league average against Degerfors IF's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Degerfors IF's attack (1.09x) against Gais's defence (0.68x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gais Win
43%
2.31
28%
3.57
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Gais xG
Total xG
2.29
1.00
Degerfors IF xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
16%
6.30
8%
12.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 10.1 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.1 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gais vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Gais and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Gais and 1.00 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Gais vs Degerfors IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, Gais have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 28W 16D 16L record — W-W-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Degerfors IF's form line: 23W 16D 21L from 60 games, 1.42 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.67 PPG for Gais against 1.42 for Degerfors IF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Gais have posted 1.97 PPG from 30 outings (17W 8D 5L).
On the road, Degerfors IF have gone 13W 8D 9L from 30 away games — 1.57 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gais are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Degerfors IF are on 1.38 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Degerfors IF in 60%.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gais
Current Season
Degerfors IF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gais and Degerfors IF in coming into this match?
Gais have gone 28W 16D 16L in their last 60 games (1.67 PPG), while Degerfors IF have gone 23W 16D 21L in their last 60 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gais at home or Degerfors IF away?
Gais's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gais at home: 1.97 PPG; Degerfors IF away: 1.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since April 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gais won 0-3 on 19 Jul 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gais have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Degerfors IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Gais
1
Draws
0
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and Degerfors IF?
From 3 meetings on record, Gais have won 2, Degerfors IF have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gais and Degerfors IF last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Gais 1-1 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between Gais and Degerfors IF?
Gais have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gais are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gais 47%, Degerfors IF 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Gais) and 60% (Degerfors IF).
On the defensive side: Gais keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Gais have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gais home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gais play Degerfors IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Gais's games and 67% of Degerfors IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gais vs Degerfors IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Gais's recent games and 60% of Degerfors IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gais and Degerfors IF tend to score early?
Gais have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Degerfors IF in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gais and Degerfors IF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gais and Degerfors IF finished level at 1-1 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 8, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gais 1.29 xG and Degerfors IF 1.00 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gais attack 0.93 / defence 0.68 against Degerfors IF attack 1.09 / defence 0.87, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gais 43% | Draw 28% | Degerfors IF 29%, with Gais to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gais 48%, Degerfors IF 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gais's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Degerfors IF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gais 1.67 PPG, Degerfors IF 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.