Djurgardens IF 4-0 Varbergs BoIS FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Djurgardens IF (60%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Djurgardens IF face Varbergs BoIS FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 10 as Djurgardens IF welcome Varbergs BoIS FC to Tele2 Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 29 May 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Djurgardens IF have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Djurgardens IF's home record at Tele2 Arena: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Varbergs BoIS FC — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Varbergs BoIS FC away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Djurgardens IF are in the better shape of the two on current Allsvenskan data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Djurgardens IF, 1 for Varbergs BoIS FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Nov 2021, ended 2–3 with Varbergs BoIS FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Djurgardens IF in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Varbergs BoIS FC in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Djurgardens IF 47% versus Varbergs BoIS FC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Djurgardens IF 53% | Varbergs BoIS FC 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Djurgardens IF 1.92 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Djurgardens IF attack 1.473 / defence 0.945 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.928 / defence 0.887. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.074. Djurgardens IF carry an above-average attack strength of 1.473 — their λ of 1.92 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 40 Djurgardens IF games / 39 Varbergs BoIS FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 60% | Draw 22% | Varbergs BoIS FC 18%. Fair-value odds: Djurgardens IF 1.67 | Draw 4.55 | Varbergs BoIS FC 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Djurgardens IF (60%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Djurgardens IF at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.87 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Djurgardens IF 70% | Varbergs BoIS FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Djurgardens IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 29 May 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 60% | Draw 22% | Varbergs BoIS FC 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 52% | xG Djurgardens IF 1.92 / Varbergs BoIS FC 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Djurgardens IF attack 1.473 / def 0.945 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.928 / def 0.887 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.074 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Djurgardens IF xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
52%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Djurgardens IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC kick off?
Djurgardens IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 29 May 2022 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Djurgardens IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Djurgardens IF 4 - 0 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Where is Djurgardens IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Djurgardens IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC part of?
Djurgardens IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Djurgardens IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our statistical model gives Djurgardens IF a 60% chance of winning, Varbergs BoIS FC a 18% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Djurgardens IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Djurgardens IF and Varbergs BoIS FC will score (BTTS).
Will Djurgardens IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Record (4 meetings): Djurgardens IF 3W | Draws 0 | Varbergs BoIS FC 1W.
What form are Djurgardens IF and Varbergs BoIS FC in?
Djurgardens IF (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Varbergs BoIS FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Djurgardens IF's attacking strength (1.47x league average) is weighed against Varbergs BoIS FC's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.92. The same calculation in reverse, Varbergs BoIS FC's attack versus Djurgardens IF's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.5%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
60%
1.66
22%
4.60
18%
5.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Djurgardens IF xG
Total xG
2.87
0.94
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.60
22%
Draw
5.57
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
15%
6.84
Win to Nil
24%
4.25
3%
38.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.0 | 10.3 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Djurgardens IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Djurgardens IF and Varbergs BoIS FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Djurgardens IF and 0.94 for Varbergs BoIS FC, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Djurgardens IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Djurgardens IF come into this having played 60 games, going 31W 12D 17L for 1.75 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-W.
On the other side, Varbergs BoIS FC sit at 1.23 PPG from 60 outings (19W 17D 24L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-L across their last five.
Djurgardens IF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.52 PPG clear of Varbergs BoIS FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Djurgardens IF's home form reads 17W 6D 7L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.90 PPG return.
Away from home, Varbergs BoIS FC have taken 1.00 points per game from 30 outings (7W 9D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Djurgardens IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Djurgardens IF are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Varbergs BoIS FC are on 1.33 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Djurgardens IF
Current Season
Varbergs BoIS FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Djurgardens IF and Varbergs BoIS FC in coming into this match?
Djurgardens IF have gone 31W 12D 17L in their last 60 games (1.75 PPG), while Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 19W 17D 24L in their last 60 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Djurgardens IF at home or Varbergs BoIS FC away?
Djurgardens IF's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Djurgardens IF at home: 1.90 PPG; Varbergs BoIS FC away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Djurgardens IF or Varbergs BoIS FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Varbergs BoIS FC in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 October 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Djurgardens IF have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 May 2022, when Djurgardens IF won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Djurgardens IF's record when hosting Varbergs BoIS FC specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Djurgardens IF
1
Draws
1
Varbergs BoIS FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and Varbergs BoIS FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Djurgardens IF have won 6, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Djurgardens IF and Varbergs BoIS FC last play each other?
They last met on 8 October 2023, when Varbergs BoIS FC 0-1 Djurgardens IF.
Who has won more matches between Djurgardens IF and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Djurgardens IF 57%, Varbergs BoIS FC 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Djurgardens IF and 57% for Varbergs BoIS FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Varbergs BoIS FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Djurgardens IF home games / Varbergs BoIS FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Djurgardens IF play Varbergs BoIS FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Djurgardens IF's games and 57% of Varbergs BoIS FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Djurgardens IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Djurgardens IF's matches and 57% of Varbergs BoIS FC's.
Do Djurgardens IF and Varbergs BoIS FC tend to score early?
Djurgardens IF have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Varbergs BoIS FC in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Djurgardens IF run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Varbergs BoIS FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF beat Varbergs BoIS FC 4-0 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 1.92 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 0.94 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Djurgardens IF beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Varbergs BoIS FC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 1.47 / defence 0.94 against Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.93 / defence 0.89, drawn from 40/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 60% | Draw 22% | Varbergs BoIS FC 18%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 53%, Varbergs BoIS FC 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Djurgardens IF arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.90 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Varbergs BoIS FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.