Degerfors IF 0-1 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Mjallby AIF (73%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Degerfors IF face Mjallby AIF.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Degerfors IF and Mjallby AIF meet at Stora Valla in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 13 September 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Degerfors IF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 0W 3D 7L from 10 games (0.30 PPG). Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stora Valla, Degerfors IF have gone 0W 3D 7L this season (10 games, 0.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Mjallby AIF have collected 2.60 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: W W D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Mjallby AIF have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Mjallby AIF arrive in superior form — a 2.30 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 0.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Across the last 7 meetings, Mjallby AIF have the stronger historical record — 6 wins to Degerfors IF's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2025, ended 1–4 with Mjallby AIF winning.
It is worth noting that Mjallby AIF have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Degerfors IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Mjallby AIF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Degerfors IF 58% and Mjallby AIF 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 52% | Mjallby AIF 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 0.51 xG and Mjallby AIF 2.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.489 / defence 1.134 | Mjallby AIF attack 1.311 / defence 0.772. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.368. Degerfors IF's attack strength of 0.489 is below the league average — the 0.51 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Mjallby AIF's defence strength of 0.772 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Mjallby AIF have an above-average attack strength of 1.311 — the away xG of 2.03 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 22 Degerfors IF games / 52 Mjallby AIF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 8% | Draw 19% | Mjallby AIF 73%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 12.50 | Draw 5.26 | Mjallby AIF 1.37. The model has a clear lean to Mjallby AIF (73%) — a 65pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Degerfors IF's lower xG of 0.51 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Mjallby AIF as the most likely outcome at 73% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 35% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Degerfors IF 40% | Mjallby AIF 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Sep 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 8% | Draw 19% | Mjallby AIF 73% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 35% | xG Degerfors IF 0.51 / Mjallby AIF 2.03 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 0.489 / def 1.134 | Mjallby AIF attack 1.311 / def 0.772 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.368 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.51
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
2.03
Mjallby AIF xG
35%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Degerfors IF vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
Degerfors IF vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 13 September 2025 at Stora Valla.
What was the final score in Degerfors IF vs Mjallby AIF?
Degerfors IF 0 - 1 Mjallby AIF.
Where is Degerfors IF vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs Mjallby AIF part of?
Degerfors IF vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 8% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 73% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Degerfors IF and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will Degerfors IF vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Mjallby AIF?
Record (7 meetings): Degerfors IF 0W | Draws 1 | Mjallby AIF 6W.
What form are Degerfors IF and Mjallby AIF in?
Degerfors IF (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Mjallby AIF (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Degerfors IF's attacking strength (0.49x league average) is weighed against Mjallby AIF's defensive record (0.77x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.51. Flip it around — Mjallby AIF's attack (1.31x) against Degerfors IF's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 2.03.
These ratings are built from 22/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 16.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.0%), 0-3 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
8%
12.89
19%
5.23
73%
1.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
16.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
16.0%
Away win
0 – 3
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.51
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
2.54
2.03
Mjallby AIF xG
12.89
8%
Home win
5.23
19%
Draw
1.37
73%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.86
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
13%
7.64
60%
1.66
Win to Nil
1%
98.41
44%
2.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 16.0 | 16.3 | 11.0 | 5.6 | 2.3 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 8.1 | 8.3 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 0.51 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 2.03 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs Mjallby AIF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Degerfors IF's recent record stands at 19W 14D 19L from 52 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mjallby AIF, meanwhile, have gone 30W 13D 9L across 52 games — 1.98 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Mjallby AIF by 0.61 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Degerfors IF heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Degerfors IF have managed 10W 6D 10L from 26 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mjallby AIF's away record stands at 13W 5D 8L across 26 trips, a 1.69 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Degerfors IF are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.65 scored and 0.98 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mjallby AIF in 65%.
Last 52 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Blended
Mjallby AIF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Degerfors IF and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 19W 14D 19L in their last 52 games (1.37 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 30W 13D 9L in their last 52 (1.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or Mjallby AIF away?
Mjallby AIF's away record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 1.38 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 1.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Mjallby AIF have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mjallby AIF won 4-1 on 27 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Degerfors IF have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mjallby AIF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Degerfors IF
1
Draws
8
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Mjallby AIF?
From 9 meetings on record, Degerfors IF have won 0, Mjallby AIF have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Degerfors IF 1-4 Mjallby AIF.
Who has won more matches between Degerfors IF and Mjallby AIF?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Degerfors IF 54%, Mjallby AIF 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Degerfors IF) and 62% (Mjallby AIF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Degerfors IF keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Degerfors IF play Mjallby AIF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Degerfors IF's games and 62% of Mjallby AIF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Degerfors IF vs Mjallby AIF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Degerfors IF's matches and 62% of Mjallby AIF's.
Do Degerfors IF and Mjallby AIF tend to score early?
Degerfors IF have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Mjallby AIF in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mjallby AIF edge out Degerfors IF 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat Degerfors IF 0-1 at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 23, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 0.51 xG and Mjallby AIF 2.03 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Mjallby AIF landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 0.49 / defence 1.13 against Mjallby AIF attack 1.31 / defence 0.77, drawn from 22/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 8% | Draw 19% | Mjallby AIF 73%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 73%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 52%, Mjallby AIF 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Degerfors IF's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Mjallby AIF arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.37. That form edge translated into the three points. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.