Degerfors IF 1-1 IFK Norrkoping – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IFK Norrkoping at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Degerfors IF vs IFK Norrkoping encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stora Valla plays host to Degerfors IF versus IFK Norrkoping in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Saturday 9 July 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
Degerfors IF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stora Valla, Degerfors IF have gone 2W 1D 7L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
IFK Norrkoping (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L D D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for IFK Norrkoping, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IFK Norrkoping's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, IFK Norrkoping are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Degerfors IF lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Nov 2021, ended 4–1 with Degerfors IF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Degerfors IF half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
IFK Norrkoping half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Degerfors IF 48% versus IFK Norrkoping 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 55% | IFK Norrkoping 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 1.10 xG and IFK Norrkoping 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.763 / defence 1.377 | IFK Norrkoping attack 0.939 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 1.060. Degerfors IF's attack strength of 0.763 is below the league average — the 1.10 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 42 Degerfors IF games / 42 IFK Norrkoping games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 30% | Draw 27% | IFK Norrkoping 43%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 3.33 | Draw 3.70 | IFK Norrkoping 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IFK Norrkoping at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IFK Norrkoping if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Degerfors IF 60% | IFK Norrkoping 40%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs IFK Norrkoping | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Jul 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 30% | Draw 27% | IFK Norrkoping 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Degerfors IF 1.10 / IFK Norrkoping 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 0.763 / def 1.377 | IFK Norrkoping attack 0.939 / def 0.970 | league avg home 1.488 / away 1.060 • Poisson stance: IFK Norrkoping (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
1.37
IFK Norrkoping xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Degerfors IF vs IFK Norrkoping kick off?
Degerfors IF vs IFK Norrkoping kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 9 July 2022 at Stora Valla.
What was the final score in Degerfors IF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Degerfors IF 1 - 1 IFK Norrkoping.
Where is Degerfors IF vs IFK Norrkoping being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs IFK Norrkoping part of?
Degerfors IF vs IFK Norrkoping is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 30% chance of winning, IFK Norrkoping a 43% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making IFK Norrkoping the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Degerfors IF and IFK Norrkoping will score (BTTS).
Will Degerfors IF vs IFK Norrkoping have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and IFK Norrkoping?
Record (2 meetings): Degerfors IF 1W | Draws 1 | IFK Norrkoping 0W.
What form are Degerfors IF and IFK Norrkoping in?
Degerfors IF (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. IFK Norrkoping (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Degerfors IF's attack rating (0.76) and IFK Norrkoping's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — IFK Norrkoping's attack (0.94x) against Degerfors IF's defence (1.38x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Norrkoping Win
30%
3.32
27%
3.72
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
2.47
1.37
IFK Norrkoping xG
3.32
30%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
8%
13.07
14%
7.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 11.6 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.7 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.0 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and IFK Norrkoping expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 1.37 for IFK Norrkoping, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Degerfors IF come into this having played 42 games, going 12W 5D 25L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-L. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, IFK Norrkoping sit at 1.40 PPG from 42 outings (17W 8D 17L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for IFK Norrkoping is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IFK Norrkoping carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Degerfors IF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Degerfors IF's home form reads 8W 2D 11L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.24 PPG return.
Away from home, IFK Norrkoping have taken 1.10 points per game from 21 outings (7W 2D 12L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Degerfors IF are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; IFK Norrkoping are on 1.43 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Blended
IFK Norrkoping
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Degerfors IF and IFK Norrkoping in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 12W 5D 25L in their last 42 games (0.98 PPG), while IFK Norrkoping have gone 17W 8D 17L in their last 42 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or IFK Norrkoping away?
Degerfors IF's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 1.24 PPG; IFK Norrkoping away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 26 July 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Degerfors IF won 4-1 on 28 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Degerfors IF have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against IFK Norrkoping — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Degerfors IF
3
Draws
3
IFK Norrkoping
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and IFK Norrkoping?
From 8 meetings on record, Degerfors IF have won 2, IFK Norrkoping have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and IFK Norrkoping last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2025, when Degerfors IF 0-0 IFK Norrkoping.
Who has won more matches between Degerfors IF and IFK Norrkoping?
IFK Norrkoping have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
IFK Norrkoping are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Degerfors IF 52%, IFK Norrkoping 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Degerfors IF) and 57% (IFK Norrkoping). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Degerfors IF have failed to score in 33% of games; IFK Norrkoping in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / IFK Norrkoping away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Degerfors IF play IFK Norrkoping?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Degerfors IF's recent matches and 52% of IFK Norrkoping's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Degerfors IF vs IFK Norrkoping usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Degerfors IF's matches and 57% of IFK Norrkoping's.
Do Degerfors IF and IFK Norrkoping tend to score early?
Degerfors IF have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, IFK Norrkoping in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Degerfors IF and IFK Norrkoping share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 13, as Degerfors IF and IFK Norrkoping drew 1-1 in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 1.10 xG and IFK Norrkoping 1.37 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 0.76 / defence 1.38 against IFK Norrkoping attack 0.94 / defence 0.97, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 30% | Draw 27% | IFK Norrkoping 43%, with IFK Norrkoping to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 55%, IFK Norrkoping 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Degerfors IF's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, IFK Norrkoping arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.