Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Hammarby FF (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Degerfors IF face Hammarby FF.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Degerfors IF host Hammarby FF at Stora Valla in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 20 September 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Degerfors IF — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Degerfors IF have posted 2W 3D 5L at Stora Valla — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hammarby FF stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Hammarby FF have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Hammarby FF's 1.90 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Degerfors IF's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Hammarby FF have the better historical record — 7 wins from 9 previous contests against 0 for Degerfors IF.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Jul 2026, ended 0–4 with Hammarby FF winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Hammarby FF have won 7 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Degerfors IF in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Hammarby FF in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Degerfors IF 49% versus Hammarby FF 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 53% | Hammarby FF 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 1.26 xG and Hammarby FF 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.826 / defence 0.950 | Hammarby FF attack 1.193 / defence 0.956. League average goals — home 1.596 / away 1.310. Data: 49 Degerfors IF games / 49 Hammarby FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 31% | Draw 27% | Hammarby FF 41%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 3.23 | Draw 3.70 | Hammarby FF 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hammarby FF are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Degerfors IF 50% | Hammarby FF 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Sep 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 31% | Draw 27% | Hammarby FF 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Degerfors IF 1.26 / Hammarby FF 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 0.826 / def 0.950 | Hammarby FF attack 1.193 / def 0.956 | league avg home 1.596 / away 1.310 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Hammarby FF xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF kick off?
Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF is scheduled to kick off at 14:30 on Sunday 20 September 2026 at Stora Valla.
Where is Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF part of?
Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 31% chance of winning, Hammarby FF a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Degerfors IF and Hammarby FF will score (BTTS).
Will Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Hammarby FF?
Record (9 meetings): Degerfors IF 0W | Draws 2 | Hammarby FF 7W.
What form are Degerfors IF and Hammarby FF in?
Degerfors IF (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Hammarby FF (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Degerfors IF's attack rating (0.83) and Hammarby FF's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hammarby FF's attack versus Degerfors IF's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
31%
3.21
27%
3.65
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
2.74
1.48
Hammarby FF xG
3.21
31%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
23%
4.41
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
7%
14.15
12%
8.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 9.5 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.0 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.6 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and Hammarby FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 1.48 for Hammarby FF, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Degerfors IF's recent record stands at 12W 10D 27L from 49 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hammarby FF, meanwhile, have gone 30W 8D 11L across 49 games — 2.00 PPG, with D-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hammarby FF by 1.06 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Degerfors IF heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Degerfors IF have managed 3W 7D 14L from 24 games — 0.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hammarby FF's away record stands at 10W 6D 8L across 24 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hammarby FF's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hammarby FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Degerfors IF are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Hammarby FF are on 2.12 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Defensively: Hammarby FF in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Blended
Hammarby FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Degerfors IF and Hammarby FF in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 12W 10D 27L in their last 49 games (0.94 PPG), while Hammarby FF have gone 30W 8D 11L in their last 49 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or Hammarby FF away?
Hammarby FF's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 0.67 PPG; Hammarby FF away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Degerfors IF or Hammarby FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Degerfors IF have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Hammarby FF in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 19 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Jul 2021, when Hammarby FF won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Degerfors IF's record when hosting Hammarby FF specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Degerfors IF
2
Draws
7
Hammarby FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Hammarby FF?
From 9 meetings on record, Degerfors IF have won 0, Hammarby FF have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and Hammarby FF last play each other?
They last met on 19 July 2026, when Hammarby FF 4-0 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between Degerfors IF and Hammarby FF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Hammarby FF see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Degerfors IF 42%, Hammarby FF 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Degerfors IF) and 50% (Hammarby FF).
On the defensive side: Degerfors IF have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / Hammarby FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Degerfors IF play Hammarby FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Degerfors IF's recent matches and 58% of Hammarby FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Degerfors IF vs Hammarby FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Degerfors IF's recent games and 50% of Hammarby FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Degerfors IF and Hammarby FF tend to score early?
Degerfors IF have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Hammarby FF in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.