Degerfors IF 0-1 Djurgardens IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Djurgardens IF at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Degerfors IF vs Djurgardens IF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Djurgardens IF make the trip to Stora Valla to face Degerfors IF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Saturday 25 July 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Degerfors IF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Degerfors IF have posted 1W 4D 5L at Stora Valla — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Djurgardens IF have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L L W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Djurgardens IF's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Djurgardens IF arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Degerfors IF have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Djurgardens IF in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Degerfors IF lead 3W to 4W over the last 8 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.8 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Degerfors IF — key trading statistics (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Djurgardens IF — key trading statistics (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Degerfors IF 55% versus Djurgardens IF 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 55% | Djurgardens IF 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 1.02 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.736 / defence 1.085 | Djurgardens IF attack 1.167 / defence 0.826. League average goals — home 1.675 / away 1.351. Degerfors IF's attack strength of 0.736 is below the league average — the 1.02 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 43 Degerfors IF games / 42 Djurgardens IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 21% | Draw 28% | Djurgardens IF 52%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 4.76 | Draw 3.57 | Djurgardens IF 1.92. Djurgardens IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Djurgardens IF as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Djurgardens IF if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Degerfors IF 60% | Djurgardens IF 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs Djurgardens IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Jul 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 21% | Draw 28% | Djurgardens IF 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Degerfors IF 1.02 / Djurgardens IF 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 0.736 / def 1.085 | Djurgardens IF attack 1.167 / def 0.826 | league avg home 1.675 / away 1.351 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (52%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Djurgardens IF xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Degerfors IF vs Djurgardens IF kick off?
Degerfors IF vs Djurgardens IF kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 25 July 2026 at Stora Valla.
What was the final score in Degerfors IF vs Djurgardens IF?
Degerfors IF 0 - 1 Djurgardens IF.
Where is Degerfors IF vs Djurgardens IF being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs Djurgardens IF part of?
Degerfors IF vs Djurgardens IF is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 21% chance of winning, Djurgardens IF a 52% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Degerfors IF and Djurgardens IF will score (BTTS).
Will Degerfors IF vs Djurgardens IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Djurgardens IF?
Record (8 meetings): Degerfors IF 3W | Draws 1 | Djurgardens IF 4W.
What form are Degerfors IF and Djurgardens IF in?
Degerfors IF (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Djurgardens IF (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about Degerfors IF vs Djurgardens IF?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Degerfors IF's attack at 0.74x the league average against Djurgardens IF's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Djurgardens IF's attack (1.17x) against Degerfors IF's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.71.
These ratings are built from 43/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
21%
4.87
28%
3.60
52%
1.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
2.73
1.71
Djurgardens IF xG
4.87
21%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
1.94
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
18%
5.53
36%
2.77
Win to Nil
4%
26.93
19%
5.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 11.2 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and Djurgardens IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 1.71 for Djurgardens IF, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs Djurgardens IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Degerfors IF's recent record stands at 9W 10D 23L from 42 games, a 0.88 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Djurgardens IF, meanwhile, have gone 19W 12D 11L across 42 games — 1.64 PPG, with L-L-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Djurgardens IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Djurgardens IF by 0.76 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Degerfors IF heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Degerfors IF have managed 1W 7D 12L from 20 games — 0.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Djurgardens IF's away record stands at 10W 4D 6L across 20 trips, a 1.70 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Djurgardens IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Degerfors IF are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Djurgardens IF are on 1.86 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Blended
Djurgardens IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Degerfors IF and Djurgardens IF in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 9W 10D 23L in their last 42 games (0.88 PPG), while Djurgardens IF have gone 19W 12D 11L in their last 42 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or Djurgardens IF away?
Djurgardens IF's away record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 0.50 PPG; Djurgardens IF away: 1.70 PPG.
Have Degerfors IF or Djurgardens IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Degerfors IF have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Djurgardens IF in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Djurgardens IF won 5-1 on 6 Jul 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Degerfors IF have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Djurgardens IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Degerfors IF
1
Draws
5
Djurgardens IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Djurgardens IF?
From 9 meetings on record, Degerfors IF have won 3, Djurgardens IF have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and Djurgardens IF last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Degerfors IF 0-1 Djurgardens IF.
Who has won more matches between Degerfors IF and Djurgardens IF?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Degerfors IF 50%, Djurgardens IF 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Degerfors IF) and 45% (Djurgardens IF).
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF in 35%; Degerfors IF have failed to score in 50% of games; Djurgardens IF in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / Djurgardens IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Degerfors IF play Djurgardens IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Degerfors IF's recent matches and 45% of Djurgardens IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Degerfors IF vs Djurgardens IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Degerfors IF's recent games and 45% of Djurgardens IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Degerfors IF and Djurgardens IF tend to score early?
Degerfors IF have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Djurgardens IF in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Djurgardens IF edge out Degerfors IF 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF beat Degerfors IF 0-1 at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 14, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 1.02 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.71 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Degerfors IF fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 0.74 / defence 1.08 against Djurgardens IF attack 1.17 / defence 0.83, drawn from 43/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 21% | Draw 28% | Djurgardens IF 52%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 55%, Djurgardens IF 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Degerfors IF's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Djurgardens IF arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.