Degerfors IF 1-1 BK Hacken – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates BK Hacken at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Degerfors IF vs BK Hacken fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 6 as Degerfors IF welcome BK Hacken to Stora Valla. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 May 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Degerfors IF stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Degerfors IF's home record at Stora Valla: 0W 4D 6L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.40 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stora Valla this season.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, BK Hacken have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D D D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
BK Hacken's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Degerfors IF 1.50 PPG, BK Hacken 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Degerfors IF, 3 for BK Hacken and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Aug 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Degerfors IF trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
BK Hacken trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Degerfors IF 60% versus BK Hacken 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 52% | BK Hacken 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 1.09 xG and BK Hacken 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.713 / defence 1.049 | BK Hacken attack 1.182 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.321. Degerfors IF's attack strength of 0.713 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 35 Degerfors IF games / 35 BK Hacken games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 25% | Draw 26% | BK Hacken 49%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 4.00 | Draw 3.85 | BK Hacken 2.04. BK Hacken hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates BK Hacken as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on BK Hacken offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Degerfors IF 30% | BK Hacken 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs BK Hacken | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 25% | Draw 26% | BK Hacken 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Degerfors IF 1.09 / BK Hacken 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 0.713 / def 1.049 | BK Hacken attack 1.182 / def 1.005 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: BK Hacken (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
1.64
BK Hacken xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Degerfors IF vs BK Hacken kick off?
Degerfors IF vs BK Hacken kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 2 May 2026 at Stora Valla.
What was the final score in Degerfors IF vs BK Hacken?
Degerfors IF 1 - 1 BK Hacken.
Where is Degerfors IF vs BK Hacken being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs BK Hacken part of?
Degerfors IF vs BK Hacken is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs BK Hacken?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 25% chance of winning, BK Hacken a 49% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making BK Hacken the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs BK Hacken?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Degerfors IF and BK Hacken will score (BTTS).
Will Degerfors IF vs BK Hacken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and BK Hacken?
Record (8 meetings): Degerfors IF 3W | Draws 2 | BK Hacken 3W.
What form are Degerfors IF and BK Hacken in?
Degerfors IF (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-D-W. BK Hacken (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Degerfors IF's attacking strength (0.71x league average) is weighed against BK Hacken's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. The same calculation in reverse, BK Hacken's attack versus Degerfors IF's defence, projects 1.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
BK Hacken Win
25%
4.08
26%
3.80
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
2.73
1.64
BK Hacken xG
4.08
25%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
19%
5.14
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
5%
20.97
16%
6.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 10.7 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.7 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.4 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs BK Hacken?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and BK Hacken expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 1.64 for BK Hacken, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs BK Hacken?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, Degerfors IF have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 23W 16D 21L record — D-L-W-D-W across the most recent five.
BK Hacken's form line: 21W 14D 25L from 60 games, 1.28 PPG, last five W-D-D-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Degerfors IF on 1.42 PPG, BK Hacken on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Degerfors IF have posted 1.27 PPG from 30 outings (10W 8D 12L).
On the road, BK Hacken have gone 11W 7D 12L from 30 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Degerfors IF are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; BK Hacken are on 1.60 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Degerfors IF have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Current Season
BK Hacken
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Degerfors IF and BK Hacken in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 23W 16D 21L in their last 60 games (1.42 PPG), while BK Hacken have gone 21W 14D 25L in their last 60 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or BK Hacken away?
BK Hacken's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 1.27 PPG; BK Hacken away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 May 2023, when BK Hacken won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Degerfors IF's record when hosting BK Hacken specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Degerfors IF
3
Draws
3
BK Hacken
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and BK Hacken?
From 9 meetings on record, Degerfors IF have won 3, BK Hacken have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and BK Hacken last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Degerfors IF 1-1 BK Hacken.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Degerfors IF 53%, BK Hacken 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Degerfors IF) and 60% (BK Hacken).
On the defensive side: Degerfors IF have failed to score in 27% of games; BK Hacken in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / BK Hacken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Degerfors IF play BK Hacken?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Degerfors IF's recent matches and 43% of BK Hacken's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Degerfors IF vs BK Hacken usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Degerfors IF's recent games and 60% of BK Hacken's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Degerfors IF and BK Hacken tend to score early?
Degerfors IF have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, BK Hacken in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Degerfors IF and BK Hacken share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 6, as Degerfors IF and BK Hacken drew 1-1 in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 1.09 xG and BK Hacken 1.64 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 0.71 / defence 1.05 against BK Hacken attack 1.18 / defence 1.00, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 25% | Draw 26% | BK Hacken 49%, with BK Hacken to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 52%, BK Hacken 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Degerfors IF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
BK Hacken's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Degerfors IF 1.42 PPG, BK Hacken 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.