BK Hacken 3-2 IFK Goteborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates BK Hacken at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this BK Hacken vs IFK Goteborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
BK Hacken host IFK Goteborg at Bravida Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 29 August 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, BK Hacken stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for BK Hacken, so this record blends games from this season and last.
BK Hacken's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Bravida Arena this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, IFK Goteborg have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for IFK Goteborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IFK Goteborg's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On current form, BK Hacken have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Profile
BK Hacken in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
IFK Goteborg in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — BK Hacken 59% versus IFK Goteborg 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BK Hacken 54% | IFK Goteborg 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BK Hacken 1.80 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BK Hacken attack 1.359 / defence 1.013 | IFK Goteborg attack 1.114 / defence 0.974. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 1.095. BK Hacken carry an above-average attack strength of 1.359 — their λ of 1.80 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 46 BK Hacken games / 46 IFK Goteborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: BK Hacken 49% | Draw 27% | IFK Goteborg 24%. Fair-value odds: BK Hacken 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | IFK Goteborg 4.17. BK Hacken hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is BK Hacken at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on BK Hacken offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: BK Hacken 70% | IFK Goteborg 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BK Hacken vs IFK Goteborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Bravida Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Aug 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BK Hacken 49% | Draw 27% | IFK Goteborg 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG BK Hacken 1.80 / IFK Goteborg 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: BK Hacken attack 1.359 / def 1.013 | IFK Goteborg attack 1.114 / def 0.974 | league avg home 1.362 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: BK Hacken (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
BK Hacken xG
Expected Goals
1.24
IFK Goteborg xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does BK Hacken vs IFK Goteborg kick off?
BK Hacken vs IFK Goteborg kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 29 August 2021 at Bravida Arena.
What was the final score in BK Hacken vs IFK Goteborg?
BK Hacken 3 - 2 IFK Goteborg.
Where is BK Hacken vs IFK Goteborg being played?
The match is being played at Bravida Arena.
What competition is BK Hacken vs IFK Goteborg part of?
BK Hacken vs IFK Goteborg is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win BK Hacken vs IFK Goteborg?
Our statistical model gives BK Hacken a 49% chance of winning, IFK Goteborg a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making BK Hacken the favourite.
Will both teams score in BK Hacken vs IFK Goteborg?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both BK Hacken and IFK Goteborg will score (BTTS).
Will BK Hacken vs IFK Goteborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and IFK Goteborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are BK Hacken and IFK Goteborg in?
BK Hacken (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. IFK Goteborg (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from BK Hacken's attack rating (1.36) and IFK Goteborg's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.80 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, IFK Goteborg's attack versus BK Hacken's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
BK Hacken Win
49%
2.05
27%
3.74
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
BK Hacken xG
Total xG
3.04
1.24
IFK Goteborg xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
29%
3.44
16%
6.07
Win to Nil
14%
7.04
4%
24.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 10.7 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for BK Hacken vs IFK Goteborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are BK Hacken and IFK Goteborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for BK Hacken and 1.24 for IFK Goteborg, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for BK Hacken vs IFK Goteborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
BK Hacken's recent record stands at 17W 17D 12L from 46 games, a 1.48 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for BK Hacken is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IFK Goteborg, meanwhile, have gone 11W 20D 15L across 46 games — 1.15 PPG, with L-L-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for IFK Goteborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: BK Hacken on 1.48 PPG, IFK Goteborg on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, BK Hacken have managed 12W 5D 5L from 22 games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IFK Goteborg's away record stands at 6W 12D 4L across 22 trips, a 1.36 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, BK Hacken come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
BK Hacken are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; IFK Goteborg are on 1.17 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BK Hacken
Blended
IFK Goteborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are BK Hacken and IFK Goteborg in coming into this match?
BK Hacken have gone 17W 17D 12L in their last 46 games (1.48 PPG), while IFK Goteborg have gone 11W 20D 15L in their last 46 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BK Hacken at home or IFK Goteborg away?
BK Hacken's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BK Hacken at home: 1.86 PPG; IFK Goteborg away: 1.36 PPG.
Have BK Hacken or IFK Goteborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
BK Hacken have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, IFK Goteborg in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Oct 2022, when BK Hacken won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
BK Hacken's record when hosting IFK Goteborg specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
BK Hacken
1
Draws
3
IFK Goteborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and IFK Goteborg?
From 10 meetings on record, BK Hacken have won 6, IFK Goteborg have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did BK Hacken and IFK Goteborg last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when IFK Goteborg 0-2 BK Hacken.
Who has won more matches between BK Hacken and IFK Goteborg?
BK Hacken have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — BK Hacken 54%, IFK Goteborg 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (BK Hacken) and 41% (IFK Goteborg).
On the defensive side: BK Hacken keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; IFK Goteborg in 36%; IFK Goteborg in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BK Hacken home games / IFK Goteborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when BK Hacken play IFK Goteborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of BK Hacken's recent matches and 54% of IFK Goteborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is BK Hacken vs IFK Goteborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 68% of BK Hacken's recent games and 41% of IFK Goteborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do BK Hacken and IFK Goteborg tend to score early?
BK Hacken have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, IFK Goteborg in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as BK Hacken edge out IFK Goteborg 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BK Hacken beat IFK Goteborg 3-2 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BK Hacken 1.80 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.24 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. BK Hacken beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BK Hacken attack 1.36 / defence 1.01 against IFK Goteborg attack 1.11 / defence 0.97, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it BK Hacken 49% | Draw 27% | IFK Goteborg 24%, with BK Hacken to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BK Hacken 54%, IFK Goteborg 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BK Hacken's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — BK Hacken 1.48 PPG, IFK Goteborg 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the BK Hacken win broke the near-deadlock. BK Hacken (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.05 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.