AIK Stockholm 1-2 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IF Elfsborg at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 13 as AIK Stockholm welcome IF Elfsborg to Friends Arena. Kick-off is set for Thursday 6 August 2020 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, AIK Stockholm have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for AIK Stockholm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Friends Arena, AIK Stockholm have gone 1W 2D 2L this season (5 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
IF Elfsborg — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Elfsborg's away record: 3W 2D 1L from 6 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.83 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 6 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour IF Elfsborg — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
AIK Stockholm in-play and half-time data (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
IF Elfsborg in-play and half-time data (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AIK Stockholm 33% versus IF Elfsborg 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AIK Stockholm 33% | IF Elfsborg 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AIK Stockholm 1.11 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AIK Stockholm attack 0.813 / defence 1.173 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.037 / defence 1.210. League average goals — home 1.126 / away 1.255. IF Elfsborg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.210 — this is suppressing AIK Stockholm's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 AIK Stockholm games / 12 IF Elfsborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 26% | Draw 29% | IF Elfsborg 45%. Fair-value odds: AIK Stockholm 3.85 | Draw 3.45 | IF Elfsborg 2.22. IF Elfsborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates IF Elfsborg as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IF Elfsborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: AIK Stockholm 60% | IF Elfsborg 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Friends Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 6 Aug 2020, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 26% | Draw 29% | IF Elfsborg 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG AIK Stockholm 1.11 / IF Elfsborg 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: AIK Stockholm attack 0.813 / def 1.173 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.037 / def 1.210 | league avg home 1.126 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
AIK Stockholm xG
Expected Goals
1.53
IF Elfsborg xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 6 August 2020 at Friends Arena.
What was the final score in AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg?
AIK Stockholm 1 - 2 IF Elfsborg.
Where is AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at Friends Arena.
What competition is AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg part of?
AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives AIK Stockholm a 26% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 45% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both AIK Stockholm and IF Elfsborg will score (BTTS).
Will AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and IF Elfsborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AIK Stockholm and IF Elfsborg in?
AIK Stockholm (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. IF Elfsborg (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
AIK Stockholm's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against IF Elfsborg's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. The same calculation in reverse, IF Elfsborg's attack versus AIK Stockholm's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.4%), 1-2 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
26%
3.86
29%
3.47
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
AIK Stockholm xG
Total xG
2.63
1.53
IF Elfsborg xG
3.86
26%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
22%
4.60
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
6%
17.75
15%
6.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 11.0 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.1 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.7 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are AIK Stockholm and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for AIK Stockholm and 1.53 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AIK Stockholm's recent record stands at 3W 4D 5L from 12 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for AIK Stockholm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IF Elfsborg, meanwhile, have gone 5W 6D 1L across 12 games — 1.75 PPG, with L-W-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours IF Elfsborg by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over AIK Stockholm heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, AIK Stockholm have managed 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IF Elfsborg's away record stands at 2W 2D 1L across 5 trips, a 1.60 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Elfsborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AIK Stockholm are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 1.67 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Defensively: IF Elfsborg in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AIK Stockholm
Blended
IF Elfsborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AIK Stockholm and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
AIK Stockholm have gone 3W 4D 5L in their last 12 games (1.08 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 5W 6D 1L in their last 12 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AIK Stockholm at home or IF Elfsborg away?
IF Elfsborg's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AIK Stockholm at home: 1.00 PPG; IF Elfsborg away: 1.60 PPG.
Have AIK Stockholm or IF Elfsborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
AIK Stockholm have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, IF Elfsborg in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 May 2024, when IF Elfsborg won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AIK Stockholm's record when hosting IF Elfsborg specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
AIK Stockholm
2
Draws
4
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and IF Elfsborg?
From 10 meetings on record, AIK Stockholm have won 4, IF Elfsborg have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AIK Stockholm and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when IF Elfsborg 1-1 AIK Stockholm.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AIK Stockholm see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AIK Stockholm 60%, IF Elfsborg 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (AIK Stockholm) and 60% (IF Elfsborg).
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg in 40%; IF Elfsborg in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AIK Stockholm home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AIK Stockholm play IF Elfsborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of AIK Stockholm's recent matches and 40% of IF Elfsborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of AIK Stockholm's recent games and 60% of IF Elfsborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AIK Stockholm and IF Elfsborg tend to score early?
AIK Stockholm have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, IF Elfsborg in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as IF Elfsborg edge out AIK Stockholm 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg beat AIK Stockholm 1-2 at Friends Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AIK Stockholm 1.11 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.53 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AIK Stockholm attack 0.81 / defence 1.17 against IF Elfsborg attack 1.04 / defence 1.21, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AIK Stockholm 26% | Draw 29% | IF Elfsborg 45%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AIK Stockholm 33%, IF Elfsborg 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Elfsborg arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.08. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.