AIK Stockholm 5-1 Halmstad – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AIK Stockholm at 55% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AIK Stockholm vs Halmstad encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
AIK Stockholm host Halmstad at Strawberry Arena in Allsvenskan (matchday 30). Kick-off is Sunday 10 November 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Guide
AIK Stockholm — last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, AIK Stockholm have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.60 lags behind their overall 2.20 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Across their last 10 games, Halmstad have recorded 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Halmstad's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 1D 8L (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On current form, AIK Stockholm have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for AIK Stockholm, 2 for Halmstad and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 15 Jul 2024, ended AIK Stockholm 2–1 Halmstad — a AIK Stockholm win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
AIK Stockholm in-play tendencies (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Halmstad in-play tendencies (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AIK Stockholm 49% versus Halmstad 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AIK Stockholm 48% | Halmstad 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AIK Stockholm 1.55 xG and Halmstad 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AIK Stockholm attack 0.947 / defence 0.828 | Halmstad attack 0.795 / defence 1.183. League average goals — home 1.384 / away 1.233. Halmstad's attack rating of 0.795 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.81. Data: built from AIK Stockholm's last 59 games and Halmstad's last 59.
Result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 55% | Draw 26% | Halmstad 19%. Fair-value odds: AIK Stockholm 1.83 | Draw 3.84 | Halmstad 5.17. The model has a clear lean to AIK Stockholm (55%) — a 29pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, AIK Stockholm are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.36 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 58% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 56%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: AIK Stockholm 50% (last 10 home games) | Halmstad 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AIK Stockholm vs Halmstad | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 30 | Venue: Strawberry Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 10 November 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 55% | Draw 26% | Halmstad 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG AIK Stockholm 1.55 / Halmstad 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: AIK Stockholm attack 0.947 / def 0.828 | Halmstad attack 0.795 / def 1.183 | league avg home 1.384 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: AIK Stockholm (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
AIK Stockholm xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Halmstad xG
44%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ AIK Stockholm vs Halmstad FAQs
What time does AIK Stockholm vs Halmstad kick off?
AIK Stockholm vs Halmstad kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 10 November 2024 at Strawberry Arena.
What was the final score in AIK Stockholm vs Halmstad?
AIK Stockholm 5 - 1 Halmstad.
Where is AIK Stockholm vs Halmstad being played?
The match is being played at Strawberry Arena.
What competition is AIK Stockholm vs Halmstad part of?
AIK Stockholm vs Halmstad is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 30) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AIK Stockholm vs Halmstad?
Our statistical model gives AIK Stockholm a 55% chance of winning, Halmstad a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making AIK Stockholm the favourite.
Will both teams score in AIK Stockholm vs Halmstad?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both AIK Stockholm and Halmstad will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will AIK Stockholm vs Halmstad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
AIK Stockholm's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Halmstad's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. The same calculation in reverse, Halmstad's attack versus AIK Stockholm's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from AIK Stockholm's last 59 games and Halmstad's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.1%), 2-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AIK Stockholm Win
55%
1.83
26%
3.84
19%
5.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
AIK Stockholm xG
Total xG
2.36
0.81
Halmstad xG
1.83
55%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
5.17
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
21%
4.72
Win to Nil
24%
4.12
4%
24.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.6 | 11.8 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.2 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ AIK Stockholm vs Halmstad Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for AIK Stockholm vs Halmstad?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are AIK Stockholm and Halmstad expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for AIK Stockholm and 0.81 for Halmstad, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for AIK Stockholm vs Halmstad?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AIK Stockholm come into this having played 59 games, going 25W 12D 22L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L.
On the other side, Halmstad sit at 1.17 PPG from 59 outings (19W 12D 28L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: AIK Stockholm on 1.47 PPG, Halmstad on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
AIK Stockholm's home form reads 15W 7D 7L across their last 29 home games, a 1.79 PPG return.
Away from home, Halmstad have taken 0.90 points per game from their last 29 away games (7W 5D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AIK Stockholm come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
AIK Stockholm are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Halmstad are on 1.03 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AIK Stockholm
Current Season
Halmstad
Current Season
AIK Stockholm (Home) vs Halmstad (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
AIK Stockholm
Current Season
Halmstad
Current Season
❓ AIK Stockholm vs Halmstad Form FAQs
What form are AIK Stockholm and Halmstad in coming into this match?
AIK Stockholm have gone 25W 12D 22L in their last 59 games (1.47 PPG), while Halmstad have gone 19W 12D 28L in their last 59 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AIK Stockholm at home or Halmstad away?
AIK Stockholm's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AIK Stockholm at home: 1.79 PPG; Halmstad away: 0.90 PPG.
Have AIK Stockholm or Halmstad been keeping clean sheets recently?
AIK Stockholm have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Halmstad in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was as recently as 20 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 10 Nov 2024, when AIK Stockholm won AIK Stockholm 5-1 Halmstad.
AIK Stockholm's record when hosting Halmstad specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
AIK Stockholm
1
Draws
5
Halmstad
Recent Meetings
❓ AIK Stockholm vs Halmstad H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and Halmstad?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, AIK Stockholm have won 4, Halmstad have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did AIK Stockholm and Halmstad last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2026: Halmstad 2-1 AIK Stockholm.
Who has won more matches between AIK Stockholm and Halmstad?
Halmstad have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Halmstad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AIK Stockholm 45%, Halmstad 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (AIK Stockholm) and 55% (Halmstad).
On the defensive side: AIK Stockholm keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Halmstad in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AIK Stockholm home games / Halmstad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ AIK Stockholm vs Halmstad Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in AIK Stockholm and Halmstad matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of AIK Stockholm's recent matches and 55% of Halmstad's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are AIK Stockholm and Halmstad matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of AIK Stockholm's recent games and 55% of Halmstad's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AIK Stockholm and Halmstad matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of AIK Stockholm's recent matches and 66% of Halmstad's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AIK Stockholm run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Halmstad.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AIK Stockholm beat Halmstad 5-1 at Strawberry Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AIK Stockholm 1.55 xG and Halmstad 0.81 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. AIK Stockholm beat their projection by 3.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AIK Stockholm attack 0.95 / defence 0.83 against Halmstad attack 0.80 / defence 1.18, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AIK Stockholm 55% | Draw 26% | Halmstad 19%, with AIK Stockholm to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AIK Stockholm 48%, Halmstad 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Halmstad's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AIK Stockholm 1.47 PPG, Halmstad 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AIK Stockholm win broke the near-deadlock. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm. Halmstad (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.