Villarreal 0-2 Mallorca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Villarreal at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Villarreal vs Mallorca fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 13 as Villarreal welcome Mallorca to Estadio Ciudad de Valencia. Kick-off is set for Sunday 6 November 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Villarreal — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Villarreal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Villarreal have posted 6W 3D 1L at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Villarreal are significantly better at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia than their overall form suggests.
Across all La Liga games this season, Mallorca have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Mallorca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Mallorca have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Villarreal at 1.20 PPG versus Mallorca's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Villarreal have won 1, Mallorca 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 22 Jan 2022, ended 3–0 with Villarreal winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Villarreal in-play and half-time data (50 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Mallorca in-play and half-time data (50 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Villarreal 40% versus Mallorca 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Villarreal 42% | Mallorca 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Villarreal 1.58 xG and Mallorca 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Villarreal attack 1.200 / defence 0.830 | Mallorca attack 0.934 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.386 / away 1.127. Data: 50 Villarreal games / 50 Mallorca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Villarreal 54% | Draw 25% | Mallorca 21%. Fair-value odds: Villarreal 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Mallorca 4.76. Villarreal hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Villarreal at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Villarreal offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Villarreal 60% | Mallorca 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Villarreal vs Mallorca | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Estadio Ciudad de Valencia • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Nov 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Villarreal 54% | Draw 25% | Mallorca 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 46% | xG Villarreal 1.58 / Mallorca 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Villarreal attack 1.200 / def 0.830 | Mallorca attack 0.934 / def 0.952 | league avg home 1.386 / away 1.127 • Poisson stance: Villarreal (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Villarreal xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Mallorca xG
46%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Villarreal vs Mallorca kick off?
Villarreal vs Mallorca kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 6 November 2022 at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia.
What was the final score in Villarreal vs Mallorca?
Villarreal 0 - 2 Mallorca.
Where is Villarreal vs Mallorca being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia.
What competition is Villarreal vs Mallorca part of?
Villarreal vs Mallorca is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Villarreal vs Mallorca?
Our statistical model gives Villarreal a 54% chance of winning, Mallorca a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Villarreal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Villarreal vs Mallorca?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Villarreal and Mallorca will score (BTTS).
Will Villarreal vs Mallorca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Villarreal and Mallorca?
Record (2 meetings): Villarreal 1W | Draws 1 | Mallorca 0W.
What form are Villarreal and Mallorca in?
Villarreal (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Mallorca (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Villarreal's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Mallorca's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. The same calculation in reverse, Mallorca's attack versus Villarreal's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 2-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Villarreal Win
54%
1.85
25%
3.97
21%
4.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Villarreal xG
Total xG
2.46
0.87
Mallorca xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
4.82
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
21%
4.87
Win to Nil
23%
4.43
4%
23.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.6 | 11.9 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.4 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Villarreal vs Mallorca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Villarreal and Mallorca expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Villarreal and 0.87 for Mallorca, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Villarreal vs Mallorca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Villarreal's recent record stands at 21W 14D 15L from 50 games, a 1.54 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Villarreal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mallorca, meanwhile, have gone 13W 13D 24L across 50 games — 1.04 PPG, with D-L-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Mallorca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Villarreal by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Mallorca heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Villarreal have managed 13W 7D 3L from 23 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.54 PPG overall — Villarreal are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Mallorca's away record stands at 4W 5D 14L across 23 trips, a 0.74 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Villarreal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Villarreal are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Mallorca are on 0.92 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Defensively: Villarreal have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Villarreal
Blended
Mallorca
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Villarreal and Mallorca in coming into this match?
Villarreal have gone 21W 14D 15L in their last 50 games (1.54 PPG), while Mallorca have gone 13W 13D 24L in their last 50 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Villarreal at home or Mallorca away?
Villarreal's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Villarreal at home: 2.00 PPG; Mallorca away: 0.74 PPG.
Have Villarreal or Mallorca been keeping clean sheets recently?
Villarreal have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Mallorca in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Villarreal and Mallorca runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Jan 2025, when Villarreal won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Villarreal's record when hosting Mallorca specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Villarreal
3
Draws
2
Mallorca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Villarreal and Mallorca?
From 10 meetings on record, Villarreal have won 5, Mallorca have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Villarreal and Mallorca last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Mallorca 1-1 Villarreal.
Who has won more matches between Villarreal and Mallorca?
Villarreal have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Villarreal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Mallorca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Villarreal 52%, Mallorca 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Villarreal) and 52% (Mallorca).
On the defensive side: Villarreal keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Mallorca in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Villarreal home games / Mallorca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Villarreal play Mallorca?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Villarreal's recent matches and 52% of Mallorca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Villarreal vs Mallorca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Villarreal's recent games and 52% of Mallorca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Villarreal and Mallorca tend to score early?
Villarreal have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Mallorca in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mallorca cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Villarreal.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mallorca beat Villarreal 0-2 at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Regular Season - 13, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Villarreal 1.58 xG and Mallorca 0.87 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Villarreal fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Mallorca outscored their 0.87 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Villarreal attack 1.20 / defence 0.83 against Mallorca attack 0.93 / defence 0.95, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Villarreal 54% | Draw 25% | Mallorca 21%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Mallorca win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Villarreal 42%, Mallorca 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Villarreal's trading profile (50 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Mallorca's trading profile (50 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Villarreal arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 1.04. Form was overturned, with Mallorca winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Villarreal (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.13 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mallorca (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.