Villarreal 2-2 Girona – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Villarreal at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Villarreal vs Girona encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Girona make the trip to Estadio de la Cerámica to face Villarreal in La Liga, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Sunday 1 December 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Villarreal's overall La Liga record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Villarreal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio de la Cerámica, Villarreal have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Girona have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Girona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Girona's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Villarreal lead 3W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2024, ended 1–0 with Villarreal winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Villarreal half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Girona half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Villarreal 80% and Girona 51% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Villarreal 69% | Girona 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Villarreal 1.65 xG and Girona 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Villarreal attack 1.300 / defence 1.197 | Girona attack 0.866 / defence 0.869. League average goals — home 1.462 / away 1.134. Villarreal carry an above-average attack strength of 1.300 — their λ of 1.65 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 51 Villarreal games / 52 Girona games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Villarreal 49% | Draw 24% | Girona 27%. Fair-value odds: Villarreal 2.04 | Draw 4.17 | Girona 3.70. Villarreal hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Villarreal are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Villarreal if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Villarreal 80% | Girona 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Villarreal vs Girona | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Estadio de la Cerámica • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Dec 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Villarreal 49% | Draw 24% | Girona 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Villarreal 1.65 / Girona 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Villarreal attack 1.300 / def 1.197 | Girona attack 0.866 / def 0.869 | league avg home 1.462 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: Villarreal (49%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Villarreal xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Girona xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Villarreal vs Girona kick off?
Villarreal vs Girona kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 1 December 2024 at Estadio de la Cerámica.
What was the final score in Villarreal vs Girona?
Villarreal 2 - 2 Girona.
Where is Villarreal vs Girona being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de la Cerámica.
What competition is Villarreal vs Girona part of?
Villarreal vs Girona is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Villarreal vs Girona?
Our statistical model gives Villarreal a 49% chance of winning, Girona a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Villarreal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Villarreal vs Girona?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Villarreal and Girona will score (BTTS).
Will Villarreal vs Girona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Villarreal and Girona?
Record (4 meetings): Villarreal 3W | Draws 0 | Girona 1W.
What form are Villarreal and Girona in?
Villarreal (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-W-D. Girona (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Villarreal vs Girona?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Villarreal's attack rating (1.30) and Girona's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.65 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Girona's attack (0.87x) against Villarreal's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 51/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Villarreal Win
49%
2.06
24%
4.11
27%
3.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Villarreal xG
Total xG
2.83
1.18
Girona xG
2.06
49%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
3.68
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
19%
5.22
Win to Nil
15%
6.68
5%
19.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.5 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Villarreal vs Girona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Villarreal and Girona expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Villarreal and 1.18 for Girona, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Villarreal vs Girona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Villarreal's recent record stands at 21W 15D 15L from 51 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Villarreal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Girona, meanwhile, have gone 31W 8D 12L across 51 games — 1.98 PPG, with L-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Girona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Girona by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Villarreal heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Villarreal have managed 10W 7D 8L from 25 games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Girona's away record stands at 12W 5D 8L across 25 trips, a 1.64 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Villarreal are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Girona are on 2.04 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Villarreal have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games.
Last 51 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Villarreal
Blended
Girona
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Villarreal and Girona in coming into this match?
Villarreal have gone 21W 15D 15L in their last 51 games (1.53 PPG), while Girona have gone 31W 8D 12L in their last 51 (1.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Villarreal at home or Girona away?
Girona's away record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Villarreal at home: 1.48 PPG; Girona away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Villarreal or Girona been keeping clean sheets recently?
Villarreal have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Girona in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Villarreal won 5-0 on 24 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Villarreal have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Girona — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Villarreal
1
Draws
2
Girona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Villarreal and Girona?
From 8 meetings on record, Villarreal have won 5, Girona have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Villarreal and Girona last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Girona 1-0 Villarreal.
Who has won more matches between Villarreal and Girona?
Villarreal have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Villarreal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for Villarreal, 52% for Girona — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for Villarreal and 48% for Girona. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Girona in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Villarreal home games / Girona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Villarreal play Girona?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Villarreal's games and 52% of Girona's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Villarreal vs Girona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Villarreal's matches and 48% of Girona's.
Do Villarreal and Girona tend to score early?
Villarreal have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Girona in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Villarreal and Girona share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Villarreal and Girona finished level at 2-2 at Estadio de la Cerámica, Regular Season - 15, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Villarreal 1.65 xG and Girona 1.18 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Girona outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Villarreal attack 1.30 / defence 1.20 against Girona attack 0.87 / defence 0.87, drawn from 51/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Villarreal 49% | Draw 24% | Girona 27%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Villarreal 69%, Girona 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Villarreal's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Girona's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Girona arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.53. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.