Valladolid 1-0 Girona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Girona at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valladolid vs Girona fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Girona travel to Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla to take on Valladolid. The game is scheduled for Saturday 22 April 2023, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Valladolid stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Valladolid at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Valladolid are significantly better at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla than their overall form suggests.
Across all La Liga games this season, Girona have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Girona have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Girona's 1.70 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Valladolid's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Valladolid, 1 for Girona and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Sep 2022, ended 1–2 with Girona winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Valladolid in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Girona in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valladolid 38% versus Girona 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valladolid 52% | Girona 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valladolid 1.45 xG and Girona 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valladolid attack 0.915 / defence 1.314 | Girona attack 1.056 / defence 1.192. League average goals — home 1.330 / away 1.053. Data: 29 Valladolid games / 29 Girona games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valladolid 37% | Draw 25% | Girona 38%. Fair-value odds: Valladolid 2.70 | Draw 4.00 | Girona 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Girona at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Girona offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Valladolid 50% | Girona 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valladolid vs Girona | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Apr 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valladolid 37% | Draw 25% | Girona 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Valladolid 1.45 / Girona 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Valladolid attack 0.915 / def 1.314 | Girona attack 1.056 / def 1.192 | league avg home 1.330 / away 1.053 • Poisson stance: Girona (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Valladolid xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Girona xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valladolid vs Girona kick off?
Valladolid vs Girona kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 22 April 2023 at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla.
What was the final score in Valladolid vs Girona?
Valladolid 1 - 0 Girona.
Where is Valladolid vs Girona being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla.
What competition is Valladolid vs Girona part of?
Valladolid vs Girona is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Valladolid vs Girona?
Our statistical model gives Valladolid a 37% chance of winning, Girona a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Girona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valladolid vs Girona?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Valladolid and Girona will score (BTTS).
Will Valladolid vs Girona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valladolid and Girona?
Record (1 meetings): Valladolid 0W | Draws 0 | Girona 1W.
What form are Valladolid and Girona in?
Valladolid (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-D-W. Girona (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Valladolid's attack rating (0.92) and Girona's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Girona's attack versus Valladolid's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Girona Win
37%
2.67
25%
4.05
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Valladolid xG
Total xG
2.91
1.46
Girona xG
2.67
37%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
23%
4.31
23%
4.26
Win to Nil
9%
11.52
9%
11.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.0 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.5 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.4 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valladolid vs Girona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Valladolid and Girona expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Valladolid and 1.46 for Girona, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Valladolid vs Girona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Valladolid's recent record stands at 9W 5D 15L from 29 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-W in the last five.
Girona, meanwhile, have gone 10W 8D 11L across 29 games — 1.31 PPG, with L-D-W-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Valladolid on 1.10 PPG, Girona on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Valladolid have managed 6W 3D 5L from 14 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Girona's away record stands at 2W 5D 7L across 14 trips, a 0.79 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.31 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Girona's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valladolid come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Valladolid are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Girona are on 1.52 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Girona in 69%.
Last 29 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valladolid
Current Season
Girona
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valladolid and Girona in coming into this match?
Valladolid have gone 9W 5D 15L in their last 29 games (1.10 PPG), while Girona have gone 10W 8D 11L in their last 29 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valladolid at home or Girona away?
Valladolid's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valladolid at home: 1.50 PPG; Girona away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Girona have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Dec 2024, when Girona won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Valladolid's record when hosting Girona specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Valladolid
0
Draws
3
Girona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valladolid and Girona?
From 4 meetings on record, Valladolid have won 1, Girona have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Valladolid and Girona last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2025, when Valladolid 0-1 Girona.
Who has won more matches between Valladolid and Girona?
Girona have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Valladolid see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valladolid 36%, Girona 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Valladolid) and 57% (Girona).
On the defensive side: Valladolid keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Valladolid have failed to score in 43% of games; Girona in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valladolid home games / Girona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valladolid play Girona?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Valladolid's recent matches and 71% of Girona's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valladolid vs Girona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Valladolid's recent games and 57% of Girona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valladolid and Girona tend to score early?
Valladolid have had a goal before half-time in 43% of their recent matches, Girona in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Valladolid defy the odds to beat Girona 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valladolid beat Girona 1-0 at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla, Regular Season - 30, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valladolid 1.45 xG and Girona 1.46 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Girona landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valladolid attack 0.92 / defence 1.31 against Girona attack 1.06 / defence 1.19, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valladolid 37% | Draw 25% | Girona 38%, with Girona to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Valladolid win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valladolid 52%, Girona 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valladolid's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not.
Girona's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valladolid 1.10 PPG, Girona 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Valladolid win broke the near-deadlock. Valladolid (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Girona (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.